In August 2025, the most-traded SHFE lead 2510 contract moved sideways within the range of 16,600-17,000 yuan/mt, while end-use lead consumption remained sluggish. The weekly operating rate of downstream lead-acid battery plants hovered around 70%, showing no signs of seasonal peak demand.
Meanwhile, the retirement volume of waste lead-acid batteries showed no improvement, with limited collection volumes from retail outlets and recyclers. Raw material arrivals at secondary lead smelters were mediocre.
The dual pressures of weak raw material supply and tepid end-use consumption continued to dampen production enthusiasm among secondary lead smelters, leading to a clear downward trend in their weekly operating rates in August.
As production cuts and suspensions expanded among secondary lead smelters, demand for waste lead-acid batteries declined correspondingly. As shown in the chart below, prices of retired EV lead-acid batteries stabilized with a slight downward bias in August. However, limited retirement volumes and restricted recycling activities in certain regions provided strong support for scrap battery prices.
After the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit and military parade this week, logistics in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region gradually resumed. With the recovery of scrap recycling operations, raw material supply in some areas may improve. However, as seen in the chart below, production willingness among secondary lead smelters remained weak in September, with most plants planning suspensions or production cuts.
Overall, while localized improvements in waste lead-acid battery supply are expected, combined with widespread production cuts at secondary lead smelters nationwide in September, demand for scrap batteries is projected to decline. SMM expects prices to maintain their current sideways movement, with little room for significant increases in September.
Data Source Statement: The data is processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market exchanges, and internal database models, and is for reference only.
