[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel Prices Plunged Sharply on September 3 as Trump to Appeal Tariff Ruling to Court

SMM Nickel September 3 Report:

Macro News:

(1) Trump: An emergency meeting will be held on Wednesday regarding the tariff ruling. An appeal will be filed with the Supreme Court as early as Wednesday. If the tariff appeal is rejected, the tariffs will have to be withdrawn. If the ruling is unfavorable, trillions of US dollars will have to be refunded. The Supreme Court will be urged to expedite the ruling. The stock market declined because it needs the tariff policy.

(2) The central bank released liquidity injection data for August across various instruments. For central bank loans, the medium-term lending facility (MLF) saw a net injection of 300 billion yuan, while pledged supplementary lending recorded a net withdrawal of 160.8 billion yuan. In open market operations, outright reverse repo operations resulted in a net injection of 300 billion yuan, with no outright treasury bond transactions conducted.

Spot Market:

Today, the SMM #1 refined nickel price ranged between 121,200-123,700 yuan/mt, averaging 122,450 yuan/mt, down 1,600 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 2,000-2,200 yuan/mt, averaging 2,100 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous session. The spot premium/discount quotation range for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands was -200-300 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2510) opened sharply lower in the night session, closing at 121,860 yuan/mt, down 1,390 yuan/mt (a 1.13% decline). During the daytime session, prices remained in the doldrums, settling at 121,530 yuan/mt by the midday close, down 1.32%.

The US dollar index rebounded recently, with dollar strength directly pressuring nickel prices, while gold and silver gained as funds shifted toward safe-haven precious metals. The August US non-farm payrolls data is expected to be released this week. If the data falls short of expectations, it may strengthen interest rate cut expectations. Nickel prices are projected to hold up well in the near term, with a price range of 121,000-125,000 yuan/mt.