The Monthly Average Price of Alumina Is Expected to Decline, and China's Aluminum Cost Is Projected to Drop Back Slightly in September

SMM September 1:

According to SMM data, the average tax-inclusive full cost of China's aluminum industry in August 2025 was 16,429 yuan/mt, up 1.0% MoM but down 4.4% YoY, mainly due to higher alumina prices during the period. The SMM alumina index averaged 3,247.82 yuan/mt (July 26 - August 25), with the weighted average alumina cost for the domestic aluminum industry rising 2.8% MoM. The SMM A00 spot aluminum price averaged 20,633 yuan/mt (July 26 - August 25), resulting in an average industry profit of approximately 4,464 yuan/mt.

By the end of August 2025, China's operating aluminum capacity reached 44 million mt, with the lowest full cost at 13,759 yuan/mt and the highest at 19,832 yuan/mt. Based on monthly average prices, 100% of the operating capacity remained profitable in August.

Cost side breakdown:

For alumina raw materials, the SMM alumina index averaged 3,247.82 yuan/mt (July 26 - August 25). While prices trended downward during the month, absolute prices remained high, driving the monthly average up MoM. Entering September, the alumina market is expected to maintain a surplus, with high operating capacity and continued inventory buildup, keeping absolute prices under pressure. The monthly average alumina price is projected to decline.

In auxiliary materials, prices were largely stable in August, with relatively small fluctuations leading to a slight cost decrease. For September, prebaked anode and aluminum fluoride prices are both expected to rise, pushing up auxiliary material costs for aluminum production.

Electricity prices were mixed in August but overall largely stable. Hydropower-dominated provinces reported price declines, while others saw increases due to peak summer demand, tight supply, and rising thermal coal prices. In September, coal prices are expected to continue rising, likely driving a slight increase in electricity prices.

Entering September 2025, alumina costs are expected to decline, while auxiliary material and power costs are projected to rebound. Overall, aluminum costs are anticipated to drop back slightly. SMM estimates the average tax-inclusive full cost for China's aluminum industry in September 2025 will range between 16,100-16,400 yuan/mt.