On Friday evening, the US August non-farm payrolls data showed an increase of 22,000 jobs, significantly below expectations, with the unemployment rate reaching 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years. Market expectations for a September interest rate cut by the US have been largely priced in, with the focus shifting to discussions on a potential year-end second rate cut and the magnitude of the cuts. The US dollar index plummeted sharply, retreating to around the mid-97 level, while LME copper exhibited strong bottom support.

SMM data shows that the projected operating rate for copper pipe producers in September 2025 is 68.92%, up 3.22 percentage points MoM and 3.57 percentage points YoY.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Tomorrow, spot imports are expected to continue supplementing the market, making it difficult for such cargoes to fetch high prices, with a risk of discounts anticipated. However, domestic supplies and warrant volumes remain limited, and prices are likely to stay firm above parity as the delivery date approaches. Note the guidance from the widening price spread between futures contracts.

In North China today, spot prices of #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were at a discount of 140-100 yuan/mt, averaging a discount of 120 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The transaction price ranged from 79,560 to 79,680 yuan/mt, with an average of 79,620 yuan/mt, down 145 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

SMM Analysis: According to SMM, China's copper foil enterprises recorded an operating rate of 78.44% in August 2025, up 1.17 percentage points MoM and 9.71 percentage points YoY...

According to SMM, the operating rate of copper plate/sheet and strip producers stood at 65.87% in August 2025, edging up 0.25 percentage points MoM but down 5.36 percentage points YoY. Specifically, the operating rates were 70.32% for large enterprises, 59.29% for medium-sized enterprises, and 62.69% for small enterprises.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: On Friday evening, LME copper opened at $9,939/mt, initially rose to touch a high of $10,008/mt, then fluctuated downward and approached a low of $9,860/mt near the session close, finally settling at $9,865/mt, down 0.27%, with trading volume at 21,000 lots and open interest at 288,000 lots. On Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2510 contract opened at 80,290 yuan/mt, immediately touched a high of 80,400 yuan/mt at the session opening, then fluctuated downward and approached a low of 79,410 yuan/mt near the close, finally consolidating sideways to settle at 79,440 yuan/mt, down 0.63%, with trading volume at 53,000 lots and open interest at 183,000 lots.

The operating rate of secondary copper rod was 28.33% in August, higher than the expected 27.43%, down 2.57% MoM but up 3.62% YoY. The core challenge facing the secondary copper rod market in August stemmed from policy expectation uncertainties.