[SMM Daily Coke and Coal Market Review] Supply side, with the military parade concluded, environmental protection-driven production restrictions on coke enterprises in some regions are expected to be lifted. Coupled with favorable profitability, coke supply is anticipated to increase. Additionally, coke shipment pace has slowed down involuntarily, leading to minor inventory accumulation at some coke plants. Demand side, recent weakness in finished steel prices has weakened coke demand. Except for certain restocking demand in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region due to traffic controls, steel mills in other areas have already replenished their coke inventories, resulting in purchasing as needed. Overall, the coke market fundamentals are gradually shifting toward looser conditions, and the short-term market may remain in the doldrums.

SMM Steel September 2: According to SMM statistics, the estimated total shipments of mainstream market resources this week reached 240,100 mt, down 7.37% WoW. By market:  

[SMM Daily Coke Market Review] Supply side, coke producers maintained relatively stable production levels with smooth shipments, though market sentiment remained cautious amid prevalent wait-and-see sentiment. Transportation restrictions in some regions slowed the pace of coke deliveries. Demand side, shrinking steel mill profits, sluggish finished product consumption, and environmental protection-driven production restrictions led to declining hot metal production, weakening rigid coke demand. Overall, sentiment in the ferrous metals series stayed subdued, while the supply-demand imbalance for coke eased slightly. The coke market may remain in the doldrums in the short term.

[SMM Daily Coking Coal and Coke Review] In terms of news, a steel mill in Northwest China initiated a coke price cut of 50-55 yuan/mt, effective from 00:00 on September 4. In terms of supply, with the military parade about to commence, coke producers in Shandong, Henan, and other regions have already implemented production restrictions, leading to tightening supply. Demand side, steel mills around the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region have also enforced short-term production restrictions recently, resulting in a pullback in hot metal production and weakened rigid demand for coke. However, some steel mills maintain low coke inventory, prompting certain urgency for deliveries. Overall, with weak supply and demand for coke, coupled with the pullback in futures, bearish sentiment has emerged in the market. The coke market is expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

This week, the ferrous metals series exhibited a "V"-shaped trend. On Monday, futures continued to consolidate at high levels amid rumors of a coal mine accident from the previous Friday and Shanghai's property market easing policies. However, some mine-related rumors were debunked, with limited impact on actual production, while the fundamentals of finished steel remained weak, leading to a mid-week pullback in futures from elevated levels. Approaching the weekend, market rumors suggested China would push for steel production cuts in 2025 and 2026, prompting bears to temporarily retreat, though upward pressure on the ferrous complex remained evident. On the spot market, during the transition between peak and off-seasons, end-use demand appeared yet to materialize......

[SMM Daily Coke Market Review] Supply side, with the military parade approaching, coke producers in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan gradually implemented production restrictions, imposing certain constraints on regional supply. However, producers in other regions saw profit recovery and increased production enthusiasm, resulting in only a slight overall reduction in coke supply. Demand side, blast furnace restrictions in Tangshan have begun successively, leading to a temporary decline in steel mills' coke demand. Nevertheless, some mills with low coke inventories remained active in purchases. In summary, both supply and demand for coke weakened, and the short-term coke market is expected to remain stable.

As of August 28, 2025, the national average spot price of HRC stood at 3,329.55 yuan/mt, while the average price of the most-traded HRC futures contract was 3,304.16 yuan/mt. From January to August 2025, HRC prices exhibited a "V-shaped" trend, with the year's low point occurring in June. Compared to 2024, China's average spot HRC price declined by approximately 9% YoY, while the average price of the most-traded futures contract fell by around 10% YoY.

According to the SMM survey, this week, the SMM broad-based inventory of HRC in Ningbo stood at 355,500 mt (as of August 27), up 10,300 mt WoW. This week, HRC prices first declined and then rose, with spot prices adjusting slightly by 10-30 yuan/mt on a weekly basis. The market trading atmosphere remained moderately weak during the week, and end-user purchase willingness was average. By the afternoon close on August 28, the most-traded HRC 2510 futures contract closed at 3,385 yuan/mt.

[SMM daily coke and coal brief] In terms of supply, coking enterprises' profits have significantly improved. However, with the approaching parade, coking enterprises in Henan and Shandong regions have implemented production restrictions, further tightening the supply. Additionally, as coking enterprises are experiencing smooth sales, their coke inventory pressure is relatively small. On the demand side, due to traffic control in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, transportation efficiency has decreased, slowing down the arrival of goods at steel mills. Moreover, influenced by the parade, more steel mills are implementing production restrictions. Coupled with a weakening market expectation for steel, most steel mills are purchasing as needed. In summary, the game between coking and steel enterprises has intensified, and the coke market may stabilize temporarily in the short term.

[SMM daily coke and coal review] In terms of supply, coking enterprises have seen a significant recovery in profits, leading to higher production enthusiasm. However, with the approaching parade, many provinces' coking enterprises are implementing environmental protection-driven production restrictions, resulting in an overall decrease in operating rates. On the demand side, steel mills near the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are expected to implement production restrictions by the end of August, leading to a short-term decline in the rigid demand for coke. Coupled with the drop in futures, which has led to a decrease in spot prices, the purchasing enthusiasm of steel mills for coke has decreased, reverting to purchasing as needed. In summary, the tight fundamentals of the coke market have somewhat improved, and the coke market is expected to stabilize temporarily in the short term. There is considerable room for negotiation regarding the eighth round of price increases.