On August 26, Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Zijin Mining") released its 2025 semi-annual report.

The first half of 2025 marked a turning point for the global aluminium industry, arguably its most turbulent period in recent memory.

Futures: LME copper opened at $9,873.5/mt overnight, initially touched a low of $9,851/mt at the beginning of the session, then rose all the way and touched a high of $10,015/mt near the end of the session, finally closed at $10,013.5/mt, up 1.4%, with trading volume reaching 26,000 lots and open interest reaching 277,000 lots.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Bears Reduced Positions Overnight in Most-Traded Contract, High Reached 20,435 yuan/mt] On Tuesday, SMM ADC12 prices held steady at 20,750 yuan/mt. Post-September regional tax rebate policies remain unclear, with thick wait-and-see sentiment prevailing in the secondary aluminum market. Tight raw material supply further bolstered firm producer offers on cost support. Demand side, approaching traditional peak season drove slight recovery in downstream procurement, but high prices capped transaction volumes, leaving actual demand mediocre.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Cuts Heat Up, Aluminum Prices Hold Up Well] Macro front, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts intensified, coupled with China's policy efforts to boost domestic demand, creating an overall favorable atmosphere that is expected to enhance aluminum consumption prospects. However, the transmission of domestic policy support to actual consumption still requires time. Supply side, with the commissioning of a small amount of replacement capacity, operating capacity saw a modest increase, while production edged up slightly. The proportion of liquid aluminum in September is expected to rebound. Cost side, the weekly total cost of the aluminum industry changed minimally, with high industry profits remaining. Demand side remains the core focus for the market going forward. As the September-October peak season approaches, downstream operating rates showed stronger signs of recovery last week, with operating rates for aluminum extrusion and aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil sectors rising to varying degrees. Entering early September, consumption has only shown marginal improvement, and effective destocking still requires time to materialize. However, current inventory levels are not high, and some secondary aluminum enterprises in Anhui and Jiangxi provinces have received notices of termination of tax rebate policies, posing a risk of declining capacity utilization rates for scrap utilization enterprises, which provides some support for primary aluminum consumption. During the traditional peak season in September, aluminum prices are more likely to rise than fall overall, but upside resistance remains. For aluminum prices to effectively break through the key resistance level of 21,000 yuan/mt, the market needs to await the realization of consumption expectations during the September-October peak season, validated by subsequent domestic aluminum ingot destocking inflection points and sustained strength in downstream operating rates.

Overnight, LME copper opened and touched a high of $9,916.5/mt before fluctuating downward to close at the day's low of $9,875/mt, down 0.31%, with trading volume at 10,000 lots and open interest at 269,000 lots.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers in Aluminum Scrap Market Intensifies, Spot-Futures Price Spread of Cast Aluminum Widens Again] Aluminum prices fluctuated downward yesterday, with SMM ADC12 holding steady at 20,750 yuan/mt. The regional tax rebate policy after September remains unclear, keeping the secondary aluminum market in a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Coupled with tight raw material supply, manufacturers maintained firm offers amid cost support. Demand side, the approaching traditional peak season drove a slight recovery in downstream procurement, but high prices suppressed trading volume, leaving actual demand still mediocre.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Significant Macro Support with Tug-of-War Between Supply and Demand, Aluminum Prices More Likely to Rise Than Fall in September] Macro front, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and potential US housing stimulus policies, coupled with China's intensified policies to boost domestic demand, have collectively created a bullish atmosphere, which is expected to enhance aluminum consumption prospects. However, the transmission of domestic policy support to actual consumption still requires time. Supply side, with the commissioning of a small amount of replacement capacity, operating capacity is steadily increasing slightly, and production is growing marginally. The proportion of liquid aluminum is anticipated to rebound in September. Cost side, the weekly total cost of the aluminum industry saw minimal changes, with high industry profits remaining intact. Demand side remains the core focus for the market going forward. As the September-October peak season approaches, downstream operating rates showed stronger signs of recovery last week, with increases observed in sectors such as aluminum extrusion and aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil. Entering early September, consumption has only shown marginal improvement, and effective inventory destocking still requires time to materialize. However, current total inventory levels are not high, and some secondary aluminum enterprises in provinces like Anhui and Jiangxi have received notices of termination for tax rebate policies, posing a risk of declining capacity utilization rates for scrap utilization enterprises, which provides some support for primary aluminum consumption. Overall, aluminum prices in the traditional peak season of September are more likely to rise than fall, but upside resistance remains. For aluminum prices to effectively break through the key resistance level of 21,000 yuan/mt, the market needs to await the realization of consumption expectations during the September-October peak season, validated by subsequent domestic aluminum ingot destocking inflection points and sustained strength in downstream operating rates.

[SMM Spot Aluminum Midday Review: Lackluster Market Activity, Premiums Struggle to Rise] SMM, September 1: In the morning session, the center of the SHFE aluminum front-month contract declined to around 20,600 yuan/mt, fluctuating rangebound. Although the aluminum price center dropped, the market showed little improvement, with transactions mainly focused on selling and settled at slight discounts. After 9:30, as the aluminum price center continued to fall, buying sentiment slightly improved, and premiums and discounts gradually stabilized, shifting to transactions at the SMM average price. Today, the east China market selling sentiment index stood at 3.06, up 0.02, while the purchasing sentiment index reached 2.84, up 0.11. SMM A00 aluminum was quoted at 20,620 yuan/mt, down 110 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a 30 yuan/mt discount to the 2509 contract, narrowing by 10 yuan/mt from the previous session.