This week, overall data showed that supply-side production in both the NEV and ESS markets entered a demand growth phase by the end of August. The EV market increased upstream power battery cell production to prepare for the September-October peak season in auto sales and meet automakers' year-end stockpiling needs for sales targets. However, demand-side end-of-life battery volumes remained stable without synchronous growth alongside power battery cell production. This stability primarily resulted from previously installed power batteries still operating within normal service cycles, not yet entering large-scale retirement phases.

The separator market maintained stable supply and demand, with prices remaining steady.

Cobalt chloride prices continued to rise, with strong bullish sentiment in the market.

Price Divergence of Co3O4 Remains Significant, Inventory Depletion Fuels Bullish Expectations

[LCO Prices Rose Steadily, Supported by Downstream Stocking Demand]

Spot prices of cobalt intermediate products remained strong this week, with mainstream brand prices in the domestic market reaching around $13.5/lb. Supply side, major miners refused to budge on prices, while traders continued to raise their offers. Demand side, smelters maintained just-in-time procurement under pressure from high raw material costs, with some companies reporting they opted for cobalt salt as a substitute for intermediate products due to the excessive price spread between raw materials and finished products caused by the rapid earlier price surge of cobalt intermediates. Overall, affected by the DRC's delayed policy, China's cobalt intermediate products will continue to face raw material shortages, maintaining upward momentum, though attention should be paid to potential demand suppression from rising raw material costs.

Cobalt sulphate spot prices surged this week. Supply side, smelters and traders raised their quotation ranges, with cobalt intermediate product smelters quoting 55,000-56,000 yuan/mt, MHP and recycling companies quoting 53,000-54,000 yuan/mt, and traders quoting above 53,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, market sentiment improved significantly in recent weeks, with downstream purchase willingness strengthening and some companies conducting large-scale restocking. Mainstream transaction prices this week hovered around 53,000 yuan/mt, with the price center gradually moving upward. Supported by rising raw material costs and substantial restocking during downstream peak season, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to maintain strong momentum in the short term.

This week, the spot price of refined cobalt maintained a fluctuating trend. Supply side, smelters continued long-term contract supply, while traders quoted prices following futures. Some producers slightly lowered offers to facilitate transactions. Demand side, although the summer break ended, the market showed no significant improvement. Downstream producers still made just-in-time procurement, resulting in sluggish actual transactions. In the future, raw material shortages may drive up prices of cobalt intermediate products and cobalt salts, potentially leading refined cobalt to follow suit. However, high inventory levels and relatively weak demand could restrain price increases. It remains crucial to monitor when refined cobalt prices start reflecting those of cobalt salts.

This week, cobalt sulphate prices continued to rise, while nickel sulphate prices also rose slightly. In contrast, prices of salt products such as lithium carbonate continued to decline. The nickel and cobalt payable indicators for ternary and LCO black mass edged up slightly due to rising salt prices, while the lithium payable indicator fell after a previous drop. Prices per % lithium for LFP black mass also fluctuated within a narrow range. Taking ternary black mass as an example: currently, the nickel and cobalt payable indicators for ternary pole piece black mass stood at 73-75%, flat WoW, while the lithium payable indicator ranged between 68-71%, down 1% WoW. Prices for LFP pole piece black mass were 2,700-2,950 yuan/mtu, and battery black mass prices were 2,450-2,650 yuan/mtu, down 100 yuan/mtu WoW.

In August, the sodium-ion battery industry exhibited varying development trends across different segments of the industry chain. While some areas experienced production fluctuations, the market landscape continued to evolve, with companies actively preparing for H2 growth.