Seasonal Transition Between Peak and Off-Peak Periods: Liquid Aluminum Proportion Rebounded by 1.3 Percentage Points in August, Further Rebound Expected in Traditional Peak Season of September

SMM August 29 News:

According to SMM statistics, China's aluminum production in August 2025 (31 days) increased 1.22% YoY and 0.33% MoM. August marked the transition between off-peak and peak seasons, with some regions reporting early signs of demand recovery. The proportion of liquid aluminum at domestic smelters rebounded, rising 1.3 percentage points MoM to 75.07%. Based on SMM's liquid aluminum ratio data, China's aluminum ingot production decreased 10.38% YoY and 4.68% MoM to approximately 930,600 mt.

Capacity changes: As of end-August, SMM estimated China's existing aluminum capacity at around 45.79 million mt (after adjustments for capacity replacement and decommissioned facilities to eliminate double-counting), with operating capacity at approximately 44 million mt. The operating aluminum capacity and industry operating rate edged up MoM, primarily due to:

1. The second-phase capacity replacement project in Shandong-Yunnan commencing cell commissioning;

2. Partial commissioning of earlier replacement projects in Guizhou;

3. Gradual cell restarts at technological transformation projects in Guangxi;

4. Minor production resumptions from idle capacity in Yunnan.

Production forecast: Entering September 2025, operating aluminum capacity is expected to rise further as replacement projects gradually commence production, with earlier cell commissioning projects achieving output and daily average ingot production increasing. Regarding the liquid aluminum ratio, with the traditional peak season approaching, some enterprises reported plans to increase direct liquid aluminum sales next month, likely pushing the ratio slightly higher. Subsequent attention should focus on peak-season demand realization, the commissioning pace of replacement projects, and liquid aluminum ratio trends.

[Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are derived from public sources, market exchanges, and SMM's proprietary database models for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.]