SMM Metal Production Data for August 2025 Released

Overview of Base Metal Production in August 2025

Copper Cathode

In August, China's copper cathode production fell by 2,800 mt (down 0.24%) MoM but rose 15.59% YoY. Cumulative production from January to August increased by 978,800 mt (up 12.30%) YoY.

The slight MoM decline in August copper cathode production can be attributed to several factors: 1) Only three smelters underwent maintenance, affecting just 4,000 mt. 2) Two new smelters in east China continued ramping up output, though the commissioning pace was slightly slower than expected. 3) Although the "Notice on Standardizing Policy Implementation Matters Regarding Investment Promotion Activities" was issued, its impact on secondary copper-to-anode and secondary copper-to-cathode production remained relatively small, as most enterprises still held raw material inventories and maintained long-term contracts with downstream customers, deterring immediate production cuts. However, many plan to reduce output starting September, reflected in the operating rate of non-copper-concentrate smelters (using scrap or anodes), which fell 0.4 percentage points MoM to 68.1% in August. 4) Sulphuric acid prices, though still at yearly highs in August, began pulling back in mid-to-late month, showing signs of peaking. A sustained decline could dampen smelting enthusiasm. 5) Copper concentrate TCs jumped initially and then pulled back. As of August 29, the weekly imported copper concentrate index stood at -$41.48/mt, down $3.8/mt from mid-August highs, with further declines expected.

Overall, the sampled operating rate for China's copper cathode industry in August was 87.97%, down 0.21 percentage points MoM. By scale: large smelters rose 0.21 points to 91.33%; medium smelters rose 0.66 points to 86.28%; small smelters fell 7.67 points to 59.61%. Copper-concentrate-based smelters' rate dipped 0.2 points to 92.1%, while non-concentrate smelters (using scrap/anodes) dropped 0.4 points to 68.1%.

In September, five smelters plan maintenance, affecting 1 million mt of primary smelting capacity, with output losses expected to rise by 14,000 mt MoM. Beyond routine maintenance, widespread production cuts (60% of surveyed samples) due to tight copper anode supply will be the primary driver of the steep September decline. This is mirrored in the operating rate of non-concentrate smelters, which plunged 8.3 points MoM to 59.9%, a trend likely to persist until year-end. The implementation of NDRC Document No. 770 (2025) will critically determine scrap-to-anode output and significantly influence cathode production.

Based on production schedules, SMM forecasts China's September copper cathode output to drop 52,500 mt (down 4.48%) MoM but rise 114,700 mt (up 11.42%) YoY. January-September cumulative output is projected to increase by 1.0935 million mt (up 12.20%) YoY. The sampled industry operating rate is estimated at 84.04% (down 3.93 points MoM), with large smelters at 88.78% (down 2.56 points), medium at 79.2% (down 7.08 points), and small at 52.78% (down 6.83 points). Copper-concentrate smelters' rate may fall 3 points to 89%, while non-concentrate smelters could drop 8.3 points to 59.9%. October output is expected to decline further, with six smelters planning maintenance and anode supply remaining tight.

Aluminum

SMM data shows China's August aluminum production rose 1.22% YoY and 0.33% MoM. As seasonal transitions began, some regions reported recovering downstream demand. The proportion of liquid aluminum rebounded 1.3 points MoM to 75.07%. Calculated casting ingot volume fell 10.38% YoY and 4.68% MoM to around 930,600 mt.

Capacity changes: By August-end, China's existing aluminum capacity stood at 45.79 million mt (adjusted for replacements and closures), with operating capacity at 44 million mt, edging up MoM. The slight rise in operating rates was driven by:

1) Phase II replacement projects in Shandong-Yunnan commencing production;

2) Partial commissioning of earlier replacement projects in Guizhou;

3) Gradual resumption of technologically transformed capacities in Guangxi;

4) Limited idle capacity restarts in Yunnan.

Outlook: In September, operating capacity is expected to climb further as replacement projects progress, boosting daily ingot output. The liquid aluminum ratio may rise slightly with peak season demand, though actual consumption recovery, project commissioning pace, and ratio trends warrant monitoring.

Alumina

China's metallurgical-grade alumina output in August increased 1.15% MoM and 7.16% YoY. By month-end, existing capacity reached 110.32 million mt, with operating capacity up 1.15% MoM and operating rate at 82.6%.

August saw mixed capacity changes, with net operating capacity rising by 1.04 million mt. While decent spot prices (theoretical profits exceeding 300 yuan/mt) encouraged high output, some northern producers reduced calcination loads for the September 3 parade, and southern plants conducted routine maintenance, capping growth.

By region:

Spot alumina prices diverged sharply, with southern prices holding firmer due to persistent maintenance (annualized operating capacity down 270,000 mt MoM), while northern capacity rose by 1.3 million mt.

September forecast: Despite weak spot prices, most producers remain profitable, with limited cuts expected. Routine maintenance and parade-related load reductions in early September may constrain operating capacity growth to around 91.35 million mt/year.

Overseas Aluminum

August overseas aluminum output grew 2.9% YoY, with average operating rates flat MoM at 88.8% (up 0.5% YoY). January-August cumulative output rose 2.9% YoY.

On August 7, Century Aluminium announced restarting a 50,000 mt line at its Mt.Holly smelter (South Carolina), aiming for full production by June 2026—its first since 2015—at a cost of $50 million. Meanwhile, South32 plans to place Mozambique's Mozal (580,000 mt capacity, 511,000 mt 2024 output) under care & maintenance by March 2026 due to failed energy negotiations, booking a $372 million impairment and projecting FY26 output at 240,000 mt (vs. 355,000 mt in FY25).

Alcoa resumed its delayed restart (post-spring blackouts) in August, targeting gradual completion by mid-2026.

In September, Indonesia's PT. Kemajuan Aluminium Industry is expected to energize its smelter, with first output in October. Vedanta's Balco (India) continues ramping up. Overseas operating rates may dip 0.2% MoM to 88.7% (up 0.4% YoY).

Overseas Metallurgical-Grade Alumina

August overseas alumina output rose 7.2% YoY, with operating rates up 0.5% MoM and 1.5% YoY to 81.6%. January-August cumulative production increased 3.8% YoY.
The monthly increase primarily came from Indonesia: PT Bintan Alumina Indonesia (BAI), a subsidiary of Nanshan Holdings, commenced feed-in for its Phase III (1 million mt/year) in June, with the first batch of alumina produced in July. It is expected to reach full capacity by year-end, followed immediately by the launch of its Phase IV commissioning plan. Meanwhile, Indonesia's Borneo Alumindo alumina refinery started construction on August 11 for its Phase II "coal-to-gas" energy facility, aiming to reduce costs and enhance operational stability.

In the Americas, Century Aluminum announced it will invest up to $30 million in its Jamalco alumina refinery in Jamaica by 2026 to lower energy consumption and increase the operating rate from 80% to 100%. The plant has a total capacity of 1.4 million mt.

Looking ahead to September, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production is expected to rise 7.4% YoY, with the operating rate reaching 82.1%, up 0.5% MoM and 2.3% YoY.

Primary Lead

China's primary lead production in August 2025 edged up slightly, rising 0.32 percentage points MoM and 2.92 percentage points YoY. Cumulative production from January to August 2025 increased 8.23 percentage points YoY.

It is understood that in August, medium and large primary lead smelters in central, northern, and east China gradually resumed operations after maintenance, leading to an expected overall supply increase. However, during the same period, some smelters in northern, northeastern, and southern China experienced unexpected reductions due to maintenance and ore undersupply, resulting in a largely offsetting effect on overall production growth. Consequently, the production increase fell short of expectations.

For September, primary lead smelters are expected to undergo more maintenance, particularly large enterprises in central China planning maintenance this month, which may become the primary factor dragging down production. Meanwhile, smelters in northeastern and northern China resuming production after maintenance will partially offset the decline. SMM expects primary lead production to drop 1.3 percentage points MoM in September.

Additionally, lead concentrate demand remained robust from August to September, with smelters generally in a "stockpiling" mode. Lead concentrate TCs continued to decline, with SMM's September import ore pb60 monthly TC reported at -110~(-70) $/dmt, down $30/dmt MoM. Moreover, transactions around -150 $/dmt increased in the market. This implies higher smelting costs and shrinking profits, dampening smelters' production enthusiasm. Some smelters planning maintenance also indicated they have stockpiled sufficient crude lead inventory, meaning limited impact on primary lead production even if the crude smelting system undergoes maintenance.

Secondary Lead

Secondary lead production in August 2025 fell short of expectations, rising 0.71% MoM and 7.73% YoY. Secondary refined lead production declined 3.54% MoM but increased 1.98% YoY.

Secondary lead production edged up in August, mainly due to the resumption of production at a secondary crude lead smelter in central China after maintenance and the unstable output at a secondary crude lead smelter in east China after restart. Secondary refined lead production, however, dipped slightly: (1) Most smelters in east and north China reduced or suspended production due to tight raw material supply and severe losses, while a secondary lead smelter in south-west China halted operations mid-month due to equipment failure. The total reduction exceeded 40,000 mt. (2) A large smelter in Inner Mongolia and a medium-sized smelter in Anhui resumed production in late July, contributing incremental output in August as they ramped up normally. A new large secondary lead capacity in south-west China officially came online in late July, also adding incremental output in August. Additionally, a large smelter in Jiangxi reported restored production to normal levels as raw material arrivals improved in August. The combined increment exceeded 30,000 mt.

Entering September, large smelters in east and north China still plan to reduce or suspend production, primarily due to weak confidence in end-use consumption and bearish lead prices, with only a few undergoing routine maintenance. Coupled with tight scrap battery supply in north China during the September 3 military parade, smelters may delay significant raw material restocking until mid-September, limiting production. SMM estimates secondary refined lead output in September will drop by around 40,000 mt MoM.

Refined Zinc

SMM's China refined zinc production rose over 3% MoM and around 28% YoY in August 2025, with cumulative output up over 7% YoY from January to August, exceeding expectations. Domestic zinc alloy output also increased MoM in August. Domestic smelter production rose in August, with resumptions after maintenance dominating in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Yunnan, Hunan, and Guangxi, while new capacities continued ramping up in Jiangxi, Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Yunnan, pushing overall output to a new high.

SMM expects China's refined zinc output in September 2025 to decline over 2% MoM but rise over 22% YoY, with cumulative January-September production projected to increase over 9% YoY. Smelter maintenance in September will mainly occur in Henan, Inner Mongolia, Hunan, and Yunnan, while some secondary zinc producers may reduce output due to rising raw material costs and tight supply. Incremental production in Hunan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, and Hubei will partially offset the overall downward adjustment.

Refined Tin

Based on SMM's processed market exchange data, China's refined tin output fell 3.45% MoM and 0.5% YoY in August 2025, primarily due to maintenance-related suspensions at some enterprises. Regional breakdowns are as follows:

Customs data shows China imported 10,278 mt of tin concentrates in July 2025, down slightly MoM. Imports of tin concentrates from Africa (DRC and Nigeria) declined, primarily due to prolonged transportation cycles and geopolitical disruptions such as the deadlock in DRC's power agreement negotiations. Imports from Myanmar remained sluggish; although mining license approvals were granted, the rainy season hindered production resumptions, compounded by Thailand's land transport ban (prohibiting transit shipments), making short-term supply improvements unlikely.

Yunnan region: Raw material shortages remained severe, with smelter inventories generally below 30 days. One enterprise has largely completed its maintenance shutdown and is preparing to resume production, with refined tin output expected next month. However, considering another smelter is scheduled for maintenance shutdown in September, overall tin ingot production in Yunnan is likely to maintain a downward trend.

Jiangxi region:

Scrap supply chain disruption: The tin scrap recycling system is under pressure, with secondary material circulation volumes dropping over 30%. The undersupply of crude tin directly constrained refined production growth. Most smelters maintained normal operations this month.

Other regions:

Dual raw material shortages: Both tin concentrates and tin scrap supplies were weak, with operating rates persistently below 70% of planned capacity. Some enterprises planned maintenance, further suppressing output, while operating rates at certain smelters fell to yearly lows.

Based on SMM estimates, refined tin production in September is projected to decline 29.89% MoM. Key drivers: Maintenance shutdowns at some smelters in Yunnan and Guangxi.

Refined nickel

In August 2025, SMM's refined nickel production rose 7% MoM and 21% YoY, with cumulative growth of 26% YoY. Domestic refined nickel smelters' operating rate stood at 66%. Top-tier enterprises saw higher operating rates, while other smelters maintained stable output, driving overall refined nickel production upward. Price-wise, the average spot price of SMM #1 refined nickel in August was 121,945 yuan/mt, down 292 yuan/mt MoM, with futures prices in the doldrums. In the spot market, Jinchuan nickel's average premium in August was 2,300 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt MoM, reflecting strong producer reluctance to budge on prices. Mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel premiums/discounts remained relatively stable in the -100-300 yuan/mt range. Demand-side, August remained a downstream off-season, with alloy and electroplating plants showing weak procurement demand, only stockpiling at low futures prices. Spot trading volume showed little change from July. With the traditional September-October peak season approaching, downstream orders are expected to recover, demand to rebound, and spot trading activity to improve.

Refined nickel production in September is forecast to rise 4% MoM, with new refined nickel projects gradually coming online to sustain output growth.

NPI

In August 2025, China's NPI production increased 4.89% MoM in physical content and 11.77% MoM in metal content. In August, China's NPI production in both physical content and metal content increased MoM. NPI prices continued to rebound during the month, with output rising more than expected. Supply side, Philippine nickel ore prices saw a slight correction in August, but core costs such as auxiliary materials and electricity prices kept climbing, keeping NPI cost lines firm and providing bottom support for NPI prices. Demand side, macro sentiment coupled with peak season expectations stabilized stainless steel futures, while downstream consumption gradually recovered as the peak season approached, with stainless steel inventory continuing destocking. Overall, supported by both supply and demand factors, NPI prices kept recovering, smelter margins improved moderately, and downstream purchases picked up, leading to MoM growth in both NPI physical and metal content in August.

Looking ahead, with the September-October peak season approaching, SMM expects stainless steel production to continue growing in September, driving China's NPI production up 4.22% MoM in physical content and 3.92% MoM in metal content. Meanwhile, supported by demand recovery and cost lines, SMM forecasts further NPI price increases in September.

Indonesian NPI

In August 2025, Indonesia's NPI production rose 1.15% MoM in physical content and 2.60% MoM in metal content. As NPI prices climbed during the month, Indonesian smelters saw improved profitability, leading to higher output. Driven by economic efficiency and downstream demand, NPI grades also increased MoM, resulting in growth in both physical and metal content.

For September 2025, SMM projects Indonesia's NPI production to rise 1.10% MoM in physical content and 1.27% MoM in metal content. With the peak season approaching and losses narrowing further, Indonesian smelter operating rates are expected to keep recovering.

Nickel sulphate

According to SMM data, China's nickel sulphate output is estimated at approximately 30,500 mt in metal content (138,500 mt in physical content) in August 2025, up 4.80% MoM but down 4.19% YoY. Demand side, with the auto sales peak season approaching, precursor plant orders increased in August, boosting nickel salt demand. Supply side, some producers ramped up output while integrated enterprises stockpiled nickel sulphate, leading to higher market supply. For September, while nickel sulphate raw material supply remains tight, precursor plants' demand for nickel salts will rise further, with SMM expecting nickel sulphate output to reach about 31,700 mt in metal content (144,100 mt in physical content), up 4.02% MoM but down 2.23% YoY.

Battery-Grade Manganese Sulphate

In August 2025, high-purity manganese sulphate production rose significantly MoM and achieved moderate growth YoY. Supply side, manganese salt plants actively maintained production schedules this month, coupled with the approaching September-October peak season, enterprises released stockpiling demand, driving up long-term contract execution volumes of high-purity manganese sulphate. This revitalized market activity and directly led to a notable MoM increase in monthly supply volume, with outstanding incremental growth. Meanwhile, all manufacturers steadily advanced long-term contract deliveries. However, the market still exhibited localized sluggishness: spot orders remained at low levels without inventory hoarding, as most manganese salt plants adopted a produce-based-on-sales model, while downstream ternary cathode precursor plants primarily made just-in-time procurement. Looking ahead to September, the downstream ternary cathode precursor market is expected to maintain stable growth, potentially further boosting manganese salt plant output. High-purity manganese sulphate production is projected to achieve another MoM increase, while maintaining moderate YoY growth.

EMD

In August 2025, EMD production showed a "slight MoM decline but YoY increase". Key reasons include: firstly, the primary battery market was in its traditional off-season, with MnO2 manufacturers focusing on fulfilling existing orders amid few new orders. High temperatures also caused unstable battery production, making destocking the primary objective and limiting production growth. Secondly, the LMO battery market downstream of MnO2 used for LMO battery faced intense competition, with most enterprises switching to more cost-effective Mn3O4 to control costs, leading to demand contraction and preventing production schedule increments. For September, driven by the traditional September-October peak season and multiple macro tailwinds in the manganese market, enterprise production schedules are expected to expand further, potentially generating new orders. Overall, total EMD output in September is anticipated to show growth.

Mn3O4

In August 2025, Mn3O4 production exhibited a "slight MoM decrease with moderate YoY growth". By product grade, both electronic-grade and battery-grade Mn3O4 output declined. Contributing factors include: firstly, the volatile LMO market made downstream procurement of battery-grade Mn3O4 cautious, with manufacturers maintaining routine operations without additional inventory buildup. Secondly, although the developing LMFP market still uses Mn3O4 as manganese source, its slow industry growth provided limited support to battery-grade Mn3O4 demand. Additionally, the electronic-grade Mn3O4 market entered its traditional off-season, with enterprises sustaining existing production levels to fulfill current orders amid weak market demand. Looking ahead to September, market sentiment remains positive. With a potential slight recovery in the LMO market, demand for battery-grade Mn3O4 is expected to rise, driving an increase in planned production. Overall, total Mn3O4 output in September is projected to maintain an upward trend, with the YoY growth rate remaining optimistic.

High-carbon ferrochrome

According to SMM data, China's high-carbon ferrochrome production continued to rise in August 2025, up 1% MoM and 1.76% YoY. In northern Inner Mongolia, some producers conducted maintenance with partial shutdowns or production cuts, leading to a 1.07% MoM decline in output. Meanwhile, in southern regions such as Sichuan, Guizhou, and Guangxi, multiple producers planned to leverage the rainy season advantages for concentrated production, resulting in an 8.7% MoM increase in output due to resumptions and expansions.

The steel mill tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome in August dropped slightly by 100-200 yuan/mt (50% metal content), aligning with earlier market bearish expectations. However, macro tailwinds supported a gradual uptick in downstream stainless steel, boosting ferrochrome demand and stabilizing the chrome market. Chrome ore prices had already declined earlier, prompting ferrochrome producers to purchase and stockpile, alleviating cost pressure. Additionally, the prolonged low domestic ferrochrome output, coupled with significant production cuts overseas, sustained a supply gap, incentivizing domestic producers to maintain high operating rates.

For September 2025, high-carbon ferrochrome output is expected to rise further. On August 25, Tsingshan announced its September tender price at 8,295 yuan/mt (50% metal content), up 300 yuan MoM, exceeding the market's earlier bullish expectation of a 100-200 yuan increase. This significantly boosted market confidence, with retail ferrochrome prices also rising, expanding producer margins and sustaining high production enthusiasm. In northern Inner Mongolia, idled furnaces resumed normal operations, while southern plants leveraged rainy season electricity price advantages to control costs and concentrate production in September, further driving output growth. Moreover, South Africa's major chrome producer Glencore-Merafe repeatedly stated it has no plans to resume ferrochrome production in 2025, suggesting overseas output will remain low, reducing import supply. Concurrently, the September-October peak season has spurred a noticeable recovery in downstream stainless steel, with high planned production boosting ferrochrome procurement demand. Under these dual tailwinds, domestic producers are actively ramping up output to address the supply gap.

Stainless steel

SMM survey data shows China's stainless steel production rose 3.62% MoM and 2.23% YoY in August 2025. By series, 200-series output increased 8.97% MoM, 300-series rose 2.44% MoM, while 400-series declined 0.5% MoM.

In August, overall stainless steel production stopped falling and rebounded, slightly below expectations at the beginning of the month. However, with the approaching September-October peak season, stainless steel production showed an overall upward trend. Driven by sustained macro tailwinds, market confidence gradually recovered this month, and purchasing transactions improved compared to the previous period. Meanwhile, social inventory of stainless steel continued to decline, with overall inventory levels pulling back to early-year levels, significantly easing destocking pressure. Additionally, as stainless steel prices held up well, the cost-price inversion at steel mills was partially corrected. During the month, raw material procurement demand from stainless steel mills gradually strengthened, and production enthusiasm also rebounded.

Looking ahead to September, stainless steel production is expected to increase further. With the arrival of the traditional September-October peak season, although downstream end-use consumption recovery fell short of expectations, as extreme weather conditions gradually subsided, infrastructure and real estate demand began to rise. Market demand is expected to be in the process of recovery. Stainless steel mills generally maintain strong confidence, with significantly improved raw material procurement enthusiasm recently, driving continuous price increases for nickel, chromium, and molybdenum. Furthermore, stainless steel inventory continued to decline in July and August, alleviating inventory pressure on mills. Coupled with expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and domestic quantitative easing policies, the market is broadly bullish on commodity prices. Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain their upward trend in September, supported by improving supply-demand patterns and macro tailwinds. However, caution is warranted regarding potential constraints on price upside if the pace of actual end-use consumption recovery lags behind expectations.

EMM

In August 2025, EMM production increased MoM. The main reasons were: downstream stainless steel production stopped falling and rebounded, combined with sustained macro tailwinds, which gradually restored market confidence and improved purchasing transactions, thereby driving EMM procurement demand and prompting manganese plants to adjust production schedules upward. Additionally, some previously idled plants resumed operations in August, slightly boosting market activity. Looking ahead to September, with the traditional September-October peak season approaching, although downstream end-use consumption recovery fell short of expectations, as extreme weather conditions subsided, infrastructure and real estate demand began to be released. Market demand is expected to be in the process of recovery. Overall, EMM production is projected to achieve MoM growth in September.

SiMn alloy

In August 2025, China's total SiMn alloy production increased notably, rising both YoY and MoM. Regionally, most of the growth came from south China, with Yunnan recording the highest increase, while Guangxi and Guizhou also saw slight MoM production growth. Production in various northern regions also increased to varying degrees.

August production rose MoM, primarily due to two factors. First, the SiMn market sentiment remained upbeat, boosting factory operating enthusiasm. At the end of July, the national "anti-rat race" policy was introduced, discouraging excessive price competition in the industry macro-wise. This strengthened bullish expectations for SiMn prices, driving futures prices upward. By early-mid August, the initial positive policy impact persisted, with SiMn alloy prices fluctuating at highs. This bolstered confidence among SiMn alloy producers, increasing operating enthusiasm in both northern and southern markets—particularly in Yunnan, where rainy-season electricity discounts provided cost advantages. Second, HBIS's August steel tender prices and volumes both increased MoM, enhancing delivery enthusiasm and market activity. Additionally, numerous SiMn alloy producers engaged in high-price hedging in early August, effectively locking in profits while easing future shipment pressure. These multiple favorable factors drove SiMn alloy production growth.

Looking ahead to September 2025, SiMn alloy output is expected to maintain its upward trend. Cost advantages in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia will persist, while Yunnan remains in its rainy-season electricity discount period, with most factories indicating no plans for production cuts. Meanwhile, the September-October peak season will boost downstream rigid demand. Pre-holiday restocking by steel mills ahead of the National Day holiday may further boost production.

Wafers

August saw wafer producers marginally ramp up output, with production up 6.24% MoM. The PV "anti-rat race" meeting held in Beijing prompted top-tier wafer producers to raise prices following polysilicon hikes, actively purchasing raw materials and lifting market sentiment. By size, 18X and 210 shipments outperformed 210R, supported by differentiated battery price increases. September wafer output is projected to rise further.

Polysilicon

Domestic polysilicon production in August increased approximately 22.29% MoM, driven by rainy-season output surges in Yunnan and Sichuan. While September output was previously expected to grow further, industry self-regulation may lead to a MoM decline, mainly due to reductions in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai.

Silicon metal

Per SMM market exchanges, August 2025 silicon metal production rose 14% MoM but fell 19% YoY. From January to August 2025, silicon metal production decreased 20% YoY.

In August, silicon metal production rose significantly MoM, primarily driven by higher operating rates in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan. Xinjiang alone contributed nearly 20,000 mt of monthly production growth, mainly due to production resumptions at top-tier enterprises. Yunnan and Sichuan saw seasonal operating rate increases during the rainy season. Additionally, Qinghai and Inner Mongolia recorded minor production growth.

September's total silicon metal production is expected to increase further. First, furnaces added in August will reflect full production in September, coupled with anticipated output expansions by leading producers. Second, production cuts in Sichuan and Yunnan during the dry season are likely to occur in late October or early November, leaving minimal supply reductions in September. September's silicon metal output is projected to grow approximately 5% MoM.

PV modules

Module producers raised their August production schedules, with output up 3.75% MoM from July. Recent module demand has weakened as overseas stockpiling concluded and domestic distributed demand declined. However, rising module costs indicate a clear upward price trend ahead. Manufacturers are increasing output to build lower-cost inventory. August's module production schedules are expected to continue rising slightly, with operating rates projected to increase about 2.45% MoM.

Solar cells

August solar cell production rose 1.4% MoM from July. Export policies boosted overseas orders significantly due to stockpiling needs, with exporters prioritizing foreign deliveries. Domestic demand for large-size high-efficiency cells remained strong, maintaining a tight supply-demand balance with minimal inventory buildup.

PV film

August PV film production schedules increased 6.24% MoM. This growth stemmed from slight module production increases and higher operating rates at some film producers. With September module schedules still trending upward, overall film output is expected to rise slightly.

PV-grade EVA

August PV-grade EVA production schedules surged 15.91% MoM as some petrochemical plants completed maintenance. Industry sources indicate September module schedules will rise slightly, potentially boosting film producers' operating rates. Some petrochemical firms received PV orders or switched to PV-grade production, while others finished maintenance. September PV-grade output is expected to grow further.

PV glass

China's August PV glass output declined 1.26% MoM from July. Production days remained unchanged, with the drop attributed to earlier cold repairs and idled capacity. Although no new furnaces underwent cold repairs and about 1,500 mt/day capacity resumed production, output still exceeded expectations. In terms of September supply, PV glass production is expected to decline due to reduced operating days, but the drop is projected to be limited as higher prices may boost production willingness, with operating rates estimated to decrease by nearly 1.35% MoM from August.

DMC

Domestic silicone DMC production in August rose 11.7% MoM and 2.8% YoY. Earlier maintenance at Zhejiang-based units resumed normal operations, while other regional dimethyldichlorosilane plants maintained relatively high loads. Although some plants initiated maintenance plans and reduced output by month-end, the impact was relatively small compared to the full month, resulting in significant production growth. Looking ahead, September output is forecast to drop approximately 2.4% MoM due to reduced operating rates at some plants and maintenance schedules.

Magnesium ingots

SMM data shows China's primary magnesium production fell 1.50% MoM in August 2025, with operating rates declining to 60.95%.

Main producing regions saw smelters undergoing routine maintenance, with six smelters conducting repairs in August. Notably, two smelters that underwent maintenance in late July resumed production in August, while two others that restarted in July maintained normal operations. One smelter that had been idle for two years resumed feeding at month-end, contributing to output growth. However, sustained high temperatures reduced smelting efficiency, causing the net output increase from resumed production to be outweighed by losses, resulting in a downward trend for August.

In September, previously idled smelters will gradually restart, with one resuming production in mid-to-late September to boost supply. However, another smelter awaits new equipment for replacement, partially offsetting supply gains. Overall, primary magnesium output is projected to grow 6.5% MoM in September, with SMM continuing to monitor production updates.

Magnesium alloy

China's magnesium alloy production decreased 2.15% MoM but increased 4.72% YoY in August 2025, with operating rates dropping to 58.68%, according to SMM.

High temperatures slowed commissioning progress at top-tier enterprises. The modest output increase was primarily driven by EV two-wheeler manufacturers adopting magnesium alloys to meet new national standards for weight and plastic reduction. According to SMM, some magnesium die-casting producers received orders from brands such as Yadea, Aima, and Luyuan. A Guangdong-based magnesium die-casting producer reported receiving orders for 20,000 sets of EV magnesium alloy components this month. As a result, alloy demand in August showed significant improvement YoY, with magnesium alloy orders performing well and production exhibiting an upward trend.

Looking ahead to September, the market competitiveness of magnesium alloy materials is accelerating. With mainstream producers intensifying marketing efforts, their core advantage in cost-performance has gained widespread industry recognition. This positive signal is driving substantive changes in the industry—some die-casting enterprises have begun adjusting production processes, gradually replacing traditional aluminum alloys with magnesium alloys. Although the material substitution process has not yet generated large-scale orders, and market demand remains in a gradual release phase, it has successfully driven a mild upward trend in overall magnesium alloy demand, laying the foundation for future production growth and forming clear expectations. Supported by the earlier demand recovery and stable production preparations, magnesium alloy production is expected to show an upward trend in September.

Magnesium powder

SMM data shows that China's magnesium powder production in August 2025 decreased by 10.41%, with the operating rate dropping to 43.83%.

The magnesium powder market exhibited clear divergence in August. Affected by policy factors, production trends among manufacturers diverged. Some faced dual pressure from weak domestic and international demand, with sluggish domestic consumer markets and shrinking procurement from global steel enterprises leading to a decline in export orders. These producers actively reduced capacity utilization rates. Conversely, others saw outstanding order performance, with magnesium powder production rising. However, the increase in production was smaller than the decrease, resulting in an overall downward trend for magnesium powder production in August.

Titanium dioxide

SMM data indicates that China's titanium dioxide production in August 2025 decreased by 2.10% MoM.

This month, the titanium dioxide market continued its production cut strategy. By mid-August, nearly 30 titanium dioxide producers collectively issued price adjustment notices, raising prices across all product grades. Domestic prices increased by an average of 500 yuan/mt, while export prices rose by an average of $50/mt. The earlier production cuts have gradually taken effect, with producers' inventories effectively cleared. Coupled with steady demand recovery in downstream markets, the previous downtrend in the titanium dioxide market has been successfully halted. Looking ahead to September, as rigid demand gradually returns, titanium dioxide prices are expected to enter a steady upward trajectory. Current market performance shows that sulfuric acid-process titanium dioxide prices have already risen slightly by about 200 yuan/mt, while chloride-process titanium dioxide prices remain in a low consolidation phase due to unresolved inventory pressure.

Sponge Titanium

According to SMM data, China's sponge titanium production in August 2025 fell 9.39% MoM.

This month, some producers actively responded to the national "anti-rat race" policy by implementing production cuts, with planned reduction targets reaching 30% to proactively control market capacity. Another key factor was the downstream demand's inability to absorb the surplus supply after previous significant capacity expansions, pushing market prices into a downward trend. SMM survey data showed the actual production cuts were slightly lower than announced targets, mainly due to multi-faceted cost-side adjustments requiring time for full implementation. Notably, the price decline gradually stabilized this month. Considering current market conditions, sponge titanium prices are expected to remain low in September.

Light Rare Earth

In August, Pr-Nd oxide production continued growing MoM, with major increases concentrated in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Jiangxi, primarily driven by higher operating rates at scrap recycling facilities. However, some separation plants reported production impacts from reduced US ore imports. These enterprises maintained stable operating rates by increasing monazite and domestic ore usage. Long-term projections suggest potential raw ore output reductions starting Q4.

Pr-Nd alloy production dipped slightly MoM due to production cuts in Inner Mongolia and Sichuan. Inner Mongolia's output declined as some smelters reduced toll processing orders and underwent facility upgrades, while Sichuan saw temporary halts from operational adjustments. With the NdFeB industry entering peak season, September's alloy production is expected to stabilize.

Medium-Heavy Rare Earth

August saw continued growth in medium-heavy rare earth oxide production, mainly from improved scrap recycling rates boosting regenerated supply. Raw ore producers' output remained flat.

Recent ion-adsorption ore market activity stayed sluggish as separation plants prioritized consuming existing raw material inventories with limited procurement interest. Some ore processors indicated potential Q4 shutdowns, which may reduce future medium-heavy rare earth oxide market circulation. In response, downstream demand indicated that after the peak season ends, the demand for rare earth raw materials in Q4 may decrease correspondingly, thus medium-heavy rare earth oxides may not face severe shortages.

NdFeB

China's NdFeB magnetic material production in August 2025 showed a MoM decline, primarily due to: First, the core raw materials for NdFeB, Pr-Nd oxide and alloy, maintained high price levels throughout July-August, dampening magnetic material enterprises' purchase willingness. The sharp price surge in the latter half of August further forced enterprises with insufficient raw material inventory to suspend order-taking and actively control order volumes to mitigate cost risks. Second, end-use demand weakened overall. White goods like air conditioners entered the traditional off-season post-summer, while the stimulus effect of consumption-boosting policies faded. Simultaneously, consumer electronics (e.g., smartphones and earphones) remained sluggish due to subsidy policy phase-outs and the conclusion of back-to-school stockpiling cycles, prompting cautious procurement strategies and significant reductions in low-end magnetic material orders. Additionally, the NEV September-October peak season stockpiling cycle neared its end, slowing industry chain procurement pace. Compounded by intensified overseas trade barriers and accelerated technological substitutions in certain sectors (e.g., ferrite replacing NdFeB in low-end products, or formula adjustments reducing Pr-Nd alloy usage), NdFeB demand faced further suppression. Lastly, macro policies like export controls raised enterprise costs, while medium-heavy rare earth restrictions prompted downstream firms to adjust formulas, collectively reducing reliance on Pr-Nd materials. Coupled with motor and end-product social inventory overhangs and strong market wait-and-see sentiment, these factors jointly exacerbated the production decline.

Molybdenum concentrate

SMM data showed China's molybdenum concentrate production in August 2025 fell 8% MoM and 10.8% YoY. Total production from January to August 2025 dropped 0.3% YoY.

By province, August output mainly came from Shaanxi, Henan, and Heilongjiang. Henan saw a MoM decrease of 1,090 mt in metal content due to reduced output from a mine undergoing technological transformation, while Inner Mongolia also recorded a MoM decline from an unrecovered mine. Other regions showed minor fluctuations. The YoY and MoM declines in August were attributed partly to mine suspensions and technological upgrades, as well as lower ore grades. With prolonged molybdenum resource extraction, market circulation tightened monthly. Supported by downstream demand growth for ferro-molybdenum, domestic molybdenum concentrate prices rose during the month. As of now, mainstream transactions for 45%-50% grade concentrate concentrated at 4,530-4,560 yuan/mtu, up 5.8% from early August.

In September, the technological transformation at a mine in Henan may still take some time, while increments in other regions remain limited. Domestic molybdenum concentrate operating rates are unlikely to rebound, with production likely remaining flat MoM. Subsequent attention should focus on mine maintenance progress and shipments from mainstream mines.

Ferromolybdenum

SMM data showed that China's ferromolybdenum production in August 2025 increased 4.08% MoM and 12.5% YoY. Total ferromolybdenum output from January to August 2025 rose 9.9% YoY.

In August, downstream demand in the domestic ferromolybdenum market was strong, with steel tender prices gradually rising. Industry profitability improved, driving higher operating rates. Data indicated the domestic ferromolybdenum operating rate increased 2 percentage points MoM to around 60% in August, though some enterprises still faced low operating rates due to molybdenum concentrate shortages. By province, Shaanxi's ferromolybdenum output increased by 800 mt MoM, while Liaoning and other regions remained relatively stable. Henan also showed slight growth.

Entering September, domestic stainless steel and other molybdenum-containing steel production is expected to maintain growth. In late August, steel mills collectively entered the market, with ferromolybdenum procurement volumes reaching 13,000 mt, most of which require delivery in September. Domestic ferromolybdenum output is projected to continue slight growth in September.

Ammonium paratungstate (APT)

SMM data showed China's APT production in August 2025 fell 10% MoM and 8% YoY, indicating significant industry contraction.

In August, domestic tungsten concentrate prices surged rapidly, gaining 33.6% monthly amid tight ore supply and scarce availability. This made restocking difficult for some APT producers, leading to lower operating rates. Some enterprises faced high cost pressures and opted for maintenance. By province, Jiangxi saw multiple producers halt operations for maintenance, reducing output by approximately 1,000 mt MoM. Fujian and Hunan reported minimal production changes, with most enterprises producing based on orders.

Entering September, tight supply in the domestic tungsten concentrate market is expected to persist, maintaining limited market circulation. APT producers may continue facing high cost pressures and raw material restocking challenges, with little improvement in operating rates. Meanwhile, end-user demand from industries like cemented carbide could strengthen during the September-October peak season, creating a supply-demand mismatch in the tungsten market. Subsequent attention should focus on domestic tungsten concentrate mining quota information and mine shipments.

Silver

China's silver production in August 2025 increased approximately 0.43% MoM from July, as output reductions from routine maintenance at copper smelters in Yunnan and Gansu were offset by production recovery at lead smelters in Inner Mongolia and Henan. Regarding production changes at other smelters, a smelter in Shandong slightly reduced output before resuming operations by month-end, while a smelter in Hunan increased production slightly with its new production line. Entering September, autumn maintenance at smelters intensified. A lead smelter in Henan underwent maintenance, and subsequent maintenance at copper smelters in Anhui and Inner Mongolia may slightly affect silver ingot production. Additionally, a lead smelter in Hunan cited tight supply of silver-lead ore, potentially leading to a slight decline in silver ingot output in September. SMM expects refined silver production to drop 3% MoM in September.

Silver Nitrate

China's silver nitrate production rose 3.96% MoM in August 2025, continuing its upward trend. Although some producers reported sluggish downstream orders from August to September, demand improved compared to early Q2. A newly built silver nitrate facility in Hunan, previously not operating normally, recorded a slight production increase in August. Market TC quotations for silver nitrate stabilized overall by month-end, with multiple producers reporting minor losses amid price competition. The price decline in September may be relatively limited. One producer stated it had already exceeded its cumulative H1 planned output for January-August, thus anticipating a 50% reduction in Q4 operating rates. Silver nitrate production is expected to maintain stable operations in September, with output likely continuing a slight accumulation trend.

Antimony Ingot

According to SMM estimates, China's antimony ingot output (including antimony ingots, crude antimony conversion, and antimony cathode) rose approximately 22.5% MoM in August 2025. Specifically, among the 33 surveyed producers, 13 suspended production (down 4 MoM), 18 reduced output (up 4 MoM), and 2 maintained normal production (unchanged MoM). After dropping below 4,000 mt in July, antimony ingot output rebounded above 4,000 mt in August. Market participants viewed this as normal but noted output remains far below typical levels. With limited imported ore availability, September output may show minimal change from August, potentially stabilizing or fluctuating slightly.

Note: Since May 2022, SMM has published national antimony ingot output estimates (including antimony ingots, crude antimony conversion, and antimony cathode). Benefiting from SMM's high industry coverage rate, the survey covers 33 producers across 8 provinces, with total sample capacity exceeding 20,000 mt and a coverage rate above 99%.

Sodium Pyroantimonate

SMM estimates China's Grade-1 sodium pyroantimonate production will decrease approximately 8.93% MoM in August 2025. After experiencing significant fluctuations in production for several consecutive months, China's first-grade sodium pyroantimonate output rebounded in June, only to pull back for two straight months in July and August, leaving many market participants lamenting the sluggish demand during the summer off-season. Industry players view this as normal, given that July-August traditionally marks the order off-season for PV glass producers, coupled with the overall weakness in antimony prices, making the output decline of sodium pyroantimonate understandable. Detailed data shows that among SMM's 13 surveyed producers, four were either idled or under commissioning in August, while one sodium pyroantimonate producer recorded a modest output increase. However, most producers reported flat or reduced production, leading to a slight MoM drop in China's first-grade sodium pyroantimonate output for August. Market participants expect minimal likelihood of a further decline in September compared to August. With the arrival of the golden autumn season, production is more likely to stabilize or rebound slightly as the market exits the off-season.

Note: Since July 2023, SMM has been publishing its assessed national sodium pyroantimonate output. Benefiting from SMM's high coverage rate in the antimony industry, the survey covers 13 sodium pyroantimonate producers across six provinces, with total sample capacity exceeding 86,000 mt and a coverage rate of 99%.

Refined Bismuth

According to SMM's assessment, China's refined bismuth output in August 2025 is expected to rise around 14% MoM compared to July. Over recent months, bismuth production saw a sudden sharp drop in May, followed by two consecutive months of decline before rebounding for the first time in August—a development anticipated by many market participants. Industry sources noted that the continuous decline in bismuth prices over the past month reflects the supply pressure from rising output on market fundamentals. However, the 14% rebound remains relatively small, and with raw material tightness persisting, production is likely to stay at low levels. Detailed data indicates that among SMM's 24 surveyed producers, three recorded notable output increases in August, while none saw significant declines, with the rest reporting minimal changes. Many market participants expect raw material constraints to persist in September, likely continuing to limit production. Refined bismuth output is more likely to stabilize or rise slightly, with little chance of another sharp drop.

Note: Since October 2022, SMM has been publishing its assessed national refined bismuth output. Thanks to SMM's high coverage rate in the bismuth industry, the survey covers 24 refined bismuth producers across eight provinces, with total sample capacity exceeding 50,000 mt and a coverage rate above 99%.

Lithium Carbonate

In August 2025, China's monthly total lithium carbonate production hit a new record high, surpassing the 85,000 mt mark, up 5% MoM and surging 39% YoY. The continued production growth was still primarily driven by the spodumene segment, with toll processing orders for non-integrated lithium chemical plants in full swing. Meanwhile, driven by sustained robust downstream demand, the overall industry supply capacity also improved in tandem.

By raw material type: Spodumene showed significant increments while lepidolite experienced a notable pullback.

Spodumene-derived lithium carbonate: Total production in August rose 19% MoM. On one hand, strong downstream demand stimulated some flexible production lines to shift to lithium carbonate manufacturing, contributing to the increment. On the other hand, non-integrated lithium chemical plants maintained high operating rates due to futures hedging profit incentives, further driving production growth.

Lepidolite-derived lithium carbonate: Total production fell 24% MoM. A leading mine in Jiangxi suspended operations due to mining license issues, with its affiliated lithium chemical plant maintaining minimal production in August through ore inventory and spot order procurement. However, output decreased significantly compared to previous high operating rates. Other lepidolite-based lithium chemical producers maintained relatively stable operations. Overall, output from the lepidolite segment declined markedly due to impacts from the leading mine and its supporting lithium chemical plant.

Salt lake-derived lithium carbonate: Total production dropped 12% MoM, mainly affected by reduced or suspended operations at some salt lake enterprises due to extraction issues, while other producers maintained stable output under favorable weather conditions.

Recycled lithium carbonate: Total production in August increased 14% MoM, primarily benefiting from rising lithium carbonate prices which boosted recyclers' production enthusiasm, though overall output scale remained limited.

In September, the lithium carbonate market still faces policy uncertainties regarding Jiangxi mines. However, as the deadline for relevant report submissions has not yet passed, these mines can currently maintain normal production. Additionally, both the spodumene and salt lake segments are expected to see new production lines commence operations, coinciding with peak seasonal downstream demand, sustaining positive market expectations. Total lithium carbonate production in September is projected to maintain growth potential. SMM will continue closely monitoring the implementation progress of Jiangxi's mining policies.

Lithium Hydroxide

SMM data shows China's August lithium hydroxide production fell 13% MoM and 31% YoY. The decrease stemmed from two main aspects: Smelting side, a leading producer's mid-month production line maintenance caused a roughly 12% MoM output decline; Causticisation side, although some enterprises achieved significant output increases due to robust mid-month orders, this could not offset the gap created by planned maintenance at other plants, resulting in an overall notable decline.

Looking ahead to September, as lithium chemical plants that underwent maintenance earlier gradually resume production, coupled with some companies flexibly adjusting their production schedules based on orders on hand, lithium hydroxide production is expected to increase 12% MoM but remain down 21% YoY.

Cobalt Sulphate

In August 2025, SMM cobalt sulphate production decreased 1.56% MoM but rose 6.26% YoY.

By raw material, cobalt intermediate products accounted for about 55%, MHP for 18%, and recycled materials for 27%. Due to the extension of the DRC ban, cobalt intermediate product prices continued to rise, leading to a gradual decline in smelters' inventory of cobalt intermediate raw materials, with recycled materials and MHP partially substituting cobalt intermediates. However, recent significant increases in the coefficients of MHP and recycled materials have reduced companies' willingness to procure these materials for production, thereby weakening the substitution effect.

Supply side, the inverted cost structure of cobalt sulphate production persisted in August. Some smelters continued to reduce cobalt sulphate output or shift to more economically viable cobalt products like cobalt chloride and Co3O4 due to weak production economics or raw material shortages. After months of adjustments, cobalt sulphate producers' production plans have stabilized basically, with limited further downside room.

Demand side, downstream buyers began stockpiling for the peak season in August, with improved orders for ternary and Co3O4 precursors. Some companies with low raw material inventories started market purchases.

By September, small and medium-sized cobalt sulphate producers are expected to have limited room for further output reductions, while integrated producers with ternary and Co3O4 capabilities may see slight production increases due to improved downstream demand. Cobalt sulphate production schedules are projected to rise 2.67% MoM in September.

Co3O4

In August 2025, Co3O4 production increased 13% MoM and 38% YoY, driven mainly by higher production schedules at LCO cathode plants. Battery cell manufacturers actively raised capacity utilization rates to meet peak-season consumer electronics demand, boosting Co3O4 procurement. In September, with resilient end-use demand, Co3O4 output is expected to maintain growth momentum, up around 5% MoM, though actual production may be influenced by cobalt salt price fluctuations and corporate inventory strategies.

Ternary Cathode Precursor

In August 2025, domestic ternary cathode precursor production showed significant growth, up 8.55% MoM and 11.30% YoY. By product series, the 6-series maintained its dominant market position at 42.43%. Benefiting from the demand boost of the domestic power market's traditional September-October peak season, the market share of 6-series materials has remained at high levels in recent months. The 5-series accounted for 15.06%, remaining basically flat. High-nickel products saw a slight increase this month, with the 8-series and 9-series accounting for 28.17% and 11.07% respectively. Demand side, August was mainly driven by traditional peak season stockpiling, with most producers reporting order increases, though the growth remained concentrated in the power market. The consumer market showed overall solid demand, but with relatively limited growth. Currently, with nickel and cobalt raw material prices at elevated levels and downstream cathode material manufacturers having limited acceptance for price hikes, precursor producers face significant cost pressure and tend to be cautious in order-taking, resulting in actual order volumes potentially falling short of market demand. Looking ahead to September, demand is expected to maintain August levels. However, due to potential tight raw material supply and continued price increases, some producers may rely on inventory drawdowns to fulfill orders, leading to an anticipated narrowing in production schedule growth. On the other hand, demand in September is likely to receive some support from pre-holiday stockpiling ahead of the National Day holiday. Overall, September production is projected to increase 3.89% MoM and 12.93% YoY.

Ternary cathode material

In August 2025, China's ternary cathode material production rose 6.99% MoM but remained down 5.07% YoY. The overall industry operating rate continued to rebound, reaching 48%. By product structure, the 5-series accounted for 15.63%, remaining basically stable; the 6-series share rose to 37.49%, further boosted by the domestic power market's September-October peak season demand, squeezing some high-nickel products' market share. High-nickel products saw slight share declines, with the 8-series at 28.94% and the 9-series at 15.67%. In the power market, orders generally rebounded as producers prepared for the traditional peak season, though significant growth remained concentrated among suppliers to leading battery cell manufacturers. The consumer market, having already shown strong growth in July, saw basically flat end-use demand this month without substantial improvement. For September, end-use demand is expected to maintain current solid levels. However, as August's rapid production growth has already front-loaded some September demand through stockpiling, coupled with currently high nickel, cobalt, and lithium raw material costs that are projected to keep rising amid potential supply tightness, some producers may comprehensively assess cost factors when taking downstream orders, potentially resulting in actual order volumes below demand levels. Overall, September production is forecast to edge down 1.51% MoM and decline 1.78% YoY.

Iron phosphate

China's iron phosphate production showed significant growth in August, rising 5% MoM and surging 59% YoY, confirming clear production expansion momentum. From the perspective of incremental driving factors, the core logic centers on two key dimensions: demand boost and capacity release. On one hand, integrated LFP producers maintained ample orders, directly driving up their internal iron phosphate production for self-use, which became a major pillar of output growth. On the other hand, some iron phosphate producers proactively scaled up output to align with capacity expansion plans, further boosting total industry production. Coupled with price fluctuations of lithium carbonate in August, this market shift prompted downstream LFP producers to accelerate stockpiling, indirectly stimulating demand growth for iron phosphate. However, as integrated LFP producers continue to expand their market share, demand for non-integrated iron phosphate showed signs of contraction. Against this backdrop, iron phosphate capacity remains on an expansion trajectory, while overall market demand growth is relatively limited. This delicate shift in the supply-demand relationship has compelled iron phosphate producers to adjust pricing strategies or enhance product competitiveness to secure downstream orders and maintain market share. Cost side, iron phosphate producers faced dual pressures of "one easing, one tightening" in August. The industrial-grade MAP market entered its traditional off-season, with prices declining significantly, providing some cost relief. However, rising ferrous sulphate prices notably increased procurement costs for iron sources, squeezing profit margins. Looking ahead to September, as downstream demand further materializes, the traditional peak season for the iron phosphate industry is approaching, with market confidence gradually recovering. Most iron phosphate producers hold optimistic expectations for September. Production-wise, domestic iron phosphate output is projected to maintain growth, up approximately 4% MoM and 40% YoY, with the industry expected to sustain favorable operating conditions.

LFP

In August, China's LFP material production rose about 8.8% MoM and 50% YoY, with an industry operating rate of around 62%. LFP producers performed well overall, maintaining high production enthusiasm, particularly top-tier material manufacturers operating at overcapacity due to robust orders from both the NEV and ESS sectors. Demand diverged among leading battery cell manufacturers, while second- and third-tier cell producers saw overall improving demand, especially in the auto sector, where the September-October peak season drove active production and stockpiling, boosting material orders. The ESS sector also delivered strong performance, with no signs of output reduction among ESS cell manufacturers, reflecting high industry vitality. For September, driven by the September-October peak season, the industry is expected to maintain strong growth momentum, with output likely expanding over 5%.

LCO

In August 2025, LCO production showed significant growth, up 19% MoM and 55% YoY. This was mainly driven by the traditional peak season for consumer electronics, with concentrated new model releases in Q3, coupled with summer sales promotions and back-to-school stockpiling demand, effectively stimulating downstream battery companies' purchase willingness for LCO cathodes. It is expected that with sustained momentum in end-use consumption, LCO production will continue its upward trend in September, with a projected MoM increase of 8%. Downstream order demand remains robust, and the overall industry operating rate maintains a high level.

LMO

In August 2025, LMO production exhibited a pattern of "MoM decline but YoY growth." Frequent price fluctuations of raw material lithium carbonate during the month led to strong wait-and-see sentiment among LMO producers. Market quotations closely followed lithium carbonate price adjustments, with both shipments and production being relatively cautious. In early August, due to a significant rise in LMO prices, battery cell manufacturers, concerned about future price hikes, engaged in advance stockpiling. However, as lithium carbonate prices rebounded and then slightly declined, battery cell manufacturers returned to a wait-and-see stance, resulting in reduced orders. Coupled with sluggish demand in the downstream battery market during the off-season, LMO producers tightened their production schedules, leading to a decline in market supply in August. Looking ahead to September, the LMO market is expected to gradually exit the off-season, with market activity likely to improve and inquiries steadily increasing, which will further boost producers' enthusiasm. Driven by this, LMO supply in September is projected to achieve MoM growth, with the YoY growth rate continuing to expand.

*Survey Methodology

SMM production surveys are conducted by professional analysts through methods such as phone calls and field visits, tracking Chinese metal producers on a monthly basis and issuing China Metal Production Reports accordingly.

During the survey process, basic sample coverage is ensured and continuously expanded. Factors such as capacity scale, geographical distribution, and enterprise nature are considered to reasonably select and allocate samples, ensuring representativeness across all sub-items.

At month-end, the data is released through official channels such as the SMM official website (www.smm.cn), WeChat subscription account (Today's Nonferrous Metals), and mobile site (m.smm.cn).

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are derived from public information, market exchanges, and SMM's internal database model, processed by SMM for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.