This week, the ferrous metals series exhibited a "V"-shaped trend. On Monday, futures continued to consolidate at high levels amid rumors of a coal mine accident from the previous Friday and Shanghai's property market easing policies. However, some mine-related rumors were debunked, with limited impact on actual production, while the fundamentals of finished steel remained weak, leading to a mid-week pullback in futures from elevated levels. Approaching the weekend, market rumors suggested China would push for steel production cuts in 2025 and 2026, prompting bears to temporarily retreat, though upward pressure on the ferrous complex remained evident. On the spot market, during the transition between peak and off-seasons, end-use demand appeared yet to materialize......

Malaysia’s stainless-steel scrap market is overwhelmingly export-oriented, with India the dominant buyer and China largely shut out. Domestic 304 scrap fetches RM4.6–6.2/kg (US$1.09–1.47), while Foshan offers only slightly more at RM5.6–5.82/kg (US$1.32–1.38), leaving scant room for arbitrage. In 2024, India absorbed 41.6% of Malaysia’s exports and Bangladesh 32.5%, compared with just 1.3% for China. Policy explains the split: Malaysia exempts stainless scrap from export duties, India’s import rules are simple, but China’s GB/T 39733-2020 standard imposes stringent requirements few Malaysian yards can meet. The trade remains divided—large dealers export, small ones supply locally. Without investment in sorting and certification, Malaysia will stay reliant on South Asia, with China a missed opportunity.

This week, the ferrous metals series saw a high-level correction. At the beginning of the week, the market was abuzz with news that blast furnaces in Tangshan would be subject to 40% production restrictions by capacity at the end of August, leading to a pullback in raw material prices. Although a decline in production is beneficial for finished products, the collapse of cost support pushed these products to their lowest levels in nearly a month. In the latter half of the week, rumors circulated about stricter enforcement of order inspections, and actions were already being taken at southern ports, resulting in a more pronounced drop in HRC compared to rebar, narrowing the spread between the two. In the spot market, when the spot-futures price spread narrowed, there was still speculative demand for long positions, but the hot and rainy weather suppressed the recovery of end-use demand...

This week, the ferrous metals series continued its trend of rising first and then falling. In the first half of the week, news about safety inspections and production restrictions of coking coal and coke led to a sharp increase in coking coal and coke prices, driving a rebound in the ferrous metals series from low levels. In the second half of the week, the market's expectation that new coal mine safety regulations would lead to the closure of small and medium-sized coal mines did not materialize. Coupled with an increase in transaction fees and the expectation that the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) would cool down the coking coal market, the follow-up market trend ended, and the futures market experienced a deep correction. In the spot market, transactions were moderate in the first half of the week, but most were driven by speculative demand for calendar spreads, while end-user demand remained in the off-season...

This week, the ferrous metals series rebounded from a low position but then saw some pullback. In the first half of the week, the main driving force for the market rally was coking coal. The further advancement of coal capacity verification led to a rise in coking coal futures, driving an overall rebound in the ferrous metals series. Market sentiment reached a new high amid rumors of production restrictions during the military parade and crude steel output reduction. In the second half of the week, the rumors cooled down, coupled with poor performance in supply and demand data for finished steel products, futures began to pull back. In the spot market, trading was moderate in the first half of the week, but mostly driven by speculative demand for calendar spreads. The performance of end-users remained generally lackluster...

This week, the ferrous metals series first rose then fell, with some varieties reaching half-year highs before experiencing significant declines. On the news front, Tuesday saw market sentiment peak as expectations for the upcoming Politburo meeting combined with potential production cut expectations in September due to military parade supply constraints, driving stronger gains in finished products than raw materials. Later in the week, the Politburo meeting concluded without exceeding expectations regarding real estate or anti-"rat race" competition measures, prompting increased exits by bulls. Fundamentally, the third and fourth rounds of coke price increases materialized this week, while finished product inventories began accumulating. Spot market-wise, recent trading activity declined, with arbitrage demand still entering early in the week but transactions plummeting later...

President Trump has issued a new executive order imposing reciprocal tariffs on imports from key trading partners, with a 10% baseline duty taking effect seven days after the order for non-compliant nations. The order establishes a minimum 15% tariff on EU goods where current duties fall below that threshold, while maintaining previously announced 50% tariffs on Brazil starting August 6 and potentially increasing China tariffs from 30% to 54%. Goods already in transit will be exempt from new duties if entered by October 5, 2025, with energy commodities remaining duty-free. The order introduces strict anti-circumvention measures including 40% punitive tariffs on transshipped goods and requires biannual publication of circumvention-prone entities. The Commerce Department, DHS and USTR will lead implementation, monitoring the national emergency declared in April 2025 regarding trade deficits. The policy aims to pressure trading partners into fairer agreements while protecting U.S. industries, though it may lead to higher consumer prices. Countries finalizing trade deals with the U.S. may avoid the tariff increases.

According to SMM data, as of July 24, the average SMM price spread between cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel for this month was 382 yuan/mt, remaining stable MoM from the June average. Since Q2, the price spread between cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel has continued to narrow.