【SMM Scrap Aluminium Market Analysis】Interpretating Data of Chinese Imports of Scrap Aluminium 2024-25

SMM Scrap Aluminium Market Analysis: Interpretating Data of Chinese Imports of Scrap Aluminium 2024-25

According to data from Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), China imported a total of 1.17 million tonnes of scrap aluminium from January to July 2025, representing a 7.34% increase compared to 1.09 million tonnes during the same period in 2024. Five key source regions: Thailand, Malaysia, the European Union, Japan and South Korea, collectively exported 696,900 tonnes to China during the same period, an 11% year-on-year increase. Their combined share of China’s total scrap aluminium imports rose from 57.61% to 59.56%, indicating a further increase in China’s reliance on these regions for scrap aluminium, especially Thailand.

From a monthly trend perspective, Thailand, as the largest single supplier, had a significant impact on overall import volumes of scrap aluminium into China. January 2025 continued the low levels seen in the second half of 2024; starting from February, Thailand’s export volume expanded rapidly, driving a sustained recovery in total import volumes. However, in May, a sharp decline in Thailand’s exports likely led to a drop in total imports, followed by a consolidation phase in June and July.

Although the Trump administration announced aluminium product tariffs in February 2025 while exempting scrap aluminium, and despite widespread expectations that scrap aluminium from Europe and the Americas would be redirected to the U.S., data following February 2025 did not show any significant impact on China’s imports from the EU. On the contrary, imports from the EU showed steady growth. In contrast, Southeast Asia, particularly Thailand and Malaysia, experienced a continued decline in exports to China after March and April, due to regional political events and disruptions caused by illegal export syndicates.

Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, scrap aluminium exports from the EU to China are expected to decline slightly but remain generally stable, with the final outcome largely dependent on the EU’s subsequent responses to U.S. tariff policies. In Southeast Asia, tightening export restrictions in Thailand and Malaysia, coupled with rising domestic demand for scrap aluminium, are expected to exert dual pressure, making a rebound in exports to China unlikely in the short-term. In terms of pricing, referencing SMM’s CIF prices for imported Zorba at Ningbo and Tianjin Ports, SMM forecasts that short-term CIF quotations of imported Zorba at Ningbo and Tianjin ports will continue to rise moderately and stabilise within the range of 18,600–19,000 RMB/tonne.