This week, the ferrous metals series exhibited a "V"-shaped trend. On Monday, futures continued to consolidate at high levels amid rumors of a coal mine accident from the previous Friday and Shanghai's property market easing policies. However, some mine-related rumors were debunked, with limited impact on actual production, while the fundamentals of finished steel remained weak, leading to a mid-week pullback in futures from elevated levels. Approaching the weekend, market rumors suggested China would push for steel production cuts in 2025 and 2026, prompting bears to temporarily retreat, though upward pressure on the ferrous complex remained evident. On the spot market, during the transition between peak and off-seasons, end-use demand appeared yet to materialize......

[SMM Daily Coke Market Review] Supply side, with the military parade approaching, coke producers in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan gradually implemented production restrictions, imposing certain constraints on regional supply. However, producers in other regions saw profit recovery and increased production enthusiasm, resulting in only a slight overall reduction in coke supply. Demand side, blast furnace restrictions in Tangshan have begun successively, leading to a temporary decline in steel mills' coke demand. Nevertheless, some mills with low coke inventories remained active in purchases. In summary, both supply and demand for coke weakened, and the short-term coke market is expected to remain stable.

As of August 28, 2025, the national average spot price of HRC stood at 3,329.55 yuan/mt, while the average price of the most-traded HRC futures contract was 3,304.16 yuan/mt. From January to August 2025, HRC prices exhibited a "V-shaped" trend, with the year's low point occurring in June. Compared to 2024, China's average spot HRC price declined by approximately 9% YoY, while the average price of the most-traded futures contract fell by around 10% YoY.

According to the SMM survey, this week, the SMM broad-based inventory of HRC in Ningbo stood at 355,500 mt (as of August 27), up 10,300 mt WoW. This week, HRC prices first declined and then rose, with spot prices adjusting slightly by 10-30 yuan/mt on a weekly basis. The market trading atmosphere remained moderately weak during the week, and end-user purchase willingness was average. By the afternoon close on August 28, the most-traded HRC 2510 futures contract closed at 3,385 yuan/mt.

[SMM daily coke and coal brief] In terms of supply, coking enterprises' profits have significantly improved. However, with the approaching parade, coking enterprises in Henan and Shandong regions have implemented production restrictions, further tightening the supply. Additionally, as coking enterprises are experiencing smooth sales, their coke inventory pressure is relatively small. On the demand side, due to traffic control in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, transportation efficiency has decreased, slowing down the arrival of goods at steel mills. Moreover, influenced by the parade, more steel mills are implementing production restrictions. Coupled with a weakening market expectation for steel, most steel mills are purchasing as needed. In summary, the game between coking and steel enterprises has intensified, and the coke market may stabilize temporarily in the short term.

[SMM daily coke and coal review] In terms of supply, coking enterprises have seen a significant recovery in profits, leading to higher production enthusiasm. However, with the approaching parade, many provinces' coking enterprises are implementing environmental protection-driven production restrictions, resulting in an overall decrease in operating rates. On the demand side, steel mills near the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are expected to implement production restrictions by the end of August, leading to a short-term decline in the rigid demand for coke. Coupled with the drop in futures, which has led to a decrease in spot prices, the purchasing enthusiasm of steel mills for coke has decreased, reverting to purchasing as needed. In summary, the tight fundamentals of the coke market have somewhat improved, and the coke market is expected to stabilize temporarily in the short term. There is considerable room for negotiation regarding the eighth round of price increases.

SMM Steel, August 19 - According to SMM statistics, the estimated total resource shipments for mainstream markets this week were 270,100 mt, down 18.57% WoW from last week's shipping levels. By market:

[SMM daily coke and coal brief] In terms of supply, with the military parade approaching, coking enterprises in multiple provinces received production restrictions notices and implemented varying degrees of production cuts, leading to a decrease in coke supply. On the demand side, due to traffic control measures related to the military parade, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region required that all transportation vehicles must be new energy vehicles, causing a slowdown in deliveries to steel mills. However, steel mills in other regions have already replenished their inventories to reasonable levels and started controlling arrivals. In summary, as the finished products market weakens, steel mills are slowing down their coke procurement pace. Nevertheless, environmental protection-driven production restrictions are gradually expanding the scope of production cuts among coking enterprises, and coke inventories at coking plants remain low. In the short term, the coke market is expected to hold up well with a generally stable trend and slight rise.

Last week, China's steel export prices fell by $3-10/mt. In the Thai market, there was a divergence in mainstream product categories; galvanizing prices first increased then decreased, with current CFR Thailand transaction prices at $630-635/mt. Wire rod prices, however, saw a higher increase due to better shipments of mainstream resources this month, leading to a slightly higher increase, with current CFR Thailand transaction prices at $530-535/mt. Local processing enterprises reported moderate transactions last week, mainly as downstream purchase willingness improved after prices followed a downward trend. So far this week, shipments have been flat, and a wait-and-see sentiment among end-users has resurfaced.

[SMM daily coke and coal review] In terms of news, according to the requirements of the environmental protection department in Henan Province, coking enterprises within the province will implement 25%-30% production restrictions starting from August 25. Some coking companies initiated the eighth round of price increase for coke, with an increase of 50-55 yuan/mt, effective from 0:00 on August 26. In terms of supply, coking companies' profits have improved, leading to increased production enthusiasm. However, as the military parade approaches, some coking companies have received notices of production restrictions. Coupled with smooth sales, overall coke inventory remains at a low level. On the demand side, steel mills maintain high operating rates, sustaining rigid demand for coke. There is still a willingness to restock, but given the already high coke prices, most steel mills are purchasing as needed. In summary, the fundamentals of the coke market remain tight. Even as wait-and-see sentiment gradually increases, the coke market is expected to generally hold up well in the short term.