According to the SMM survey, this week, the SMM broad-based inventory of HRC in Ningbo stood at 355,500 mt (as of August 27), up 10,300 mt WoW. This week, HRC prices first declined and then rose, with spot prices adjusting slightly by 10-30 yuan/mt on a weekly basis. The market trading atmosphere remained moderately weak during the week, and end-user purchase willingness was average. By the afternoon close on August 28, the most-traded HRC 2510 futures contract closed at 3,385 yuan/mt.

[SMM daily coke and coal brief] In terms of supply, coking enterprises' profits have significantly improved. However, with the approaching parade, coking enterprises in Henan and Shandong regions have implemented production restrictions, further tightening the supply. Additionally, as coking enterprises are experiencing smooth sales, their coke inventory pressure is relatively small. On the demand side, due to traffic control in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, transportation efficiency has decreased, slowing down the arrival of goods at steel mills. Moreover, influenced by the parade, more steel mills are implementing production restrictions. Coupled with a weakening market expectation for steel, most steel mills are purchasing as needed. In summary, the game between coking and steel enterprises has intensified, and the coke market may stabilize temporarily in the short term.

[SMM daily coke and coal review] In terms of supply, coking enterprises have seen a significant recovery in profits, leading to higher production enthusiasm. However, with the approaching parade, many provinces' coking enterprises are implementing environmental protection-driven production restrictions, resulting in an overall decrease in operating rates. On the demand side, steel mills near the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are expected to implement production restrictions by the end of August, leading to a short-term decline in the rigid demand for coke. Coupled with the drop in futures, which has led to a decrease in spot prices, the purchasing enthusiasm of steel mills for coke has decreased, reverting to purchasing as needed. In summary, the tight fundamentals of the coke market have somewhat improved, and the coke market is expected to stabilize temporarily in the short term. There is considerable room for negotiation regarding the eighth round of price increases.

SMM Steel, August 19 - According to SMM statistics, the estimated total resource shipments for mainstream markets this week were 270,100 mt, down 18.57% WoW from last week's shipping levels. By market:

[SMM daily coke and coal brief] In terms of supply, with the military parade approaching, coking enterprises in multiple provinces received production restrictions notices and implemented varying degrees of production cuts, leading to a decrease in coke supply. On the demand side, due to traffic control measures related to the military parade, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region required that all transportation vehicles must be new energy vehicles, causing a slowdown in deliveries to steel mills. However, steel mills in other regions have already replenished their inventories to reasonable levels and started controlling arrivals. In summary, as the finished products market weakens, steel mills are slowing down their coke procurement pace. Nevertheless, environmental protection-driven production restrictions are gradually expanding the scope of production cuts among coking enterprises, and coke inventories at coking plants remain low. In the short term, the coke market is expected to hold up well with a generally stable trend and slight rise.

Last week, China's steel export prices fell by $3-10/mt. In the Thai market, there was a divergence in mainstream product categories; galvanizing prices first increased then decreased, with current CFR Thailand transaction prices at $630-635/mt. Wire rod prices, however, saw a higher increase due to better shipments of mainstream resources this month, leading to a slightly higher increase, with current CFR Thailand transaction prices at $530-535/mt. Local processing enterprises reported moderate transactions last week, mainly as downstream purchase willingness improved after prices followed a downward trend. So far this week, shipments have been flat, and a wait-and-see sentiment among end-users has resurfaced.

[SMM daily coke and coal review] In terms of news, according to the requirements of the environmental protection department in Henan Province, coking enterprises within the province will implement 25%-30% production restrictions starting from August 25. Some coking companies initiated the eighth round of price increase for coke, with an increase of 50-55 yuan/mt, effective from 0:00 on August 26. In terms of supply, coking companies' profits have improved, leading to increased production enthusiasm. However, as the military parade approaches, some coking companies have received notices of production restrictions. Coupled with smooth sales, overall coke inventory remains at a low level. On the demand side, steel mills maintain high operating rates, sustaining rigid demand for coke. There is still a willingness to restock, but given the already high coke prices, most steel mills are purchasing as needed. In summary, the fundamentals of the coke market remain tight. Even as wait-and-see sentiment gradually increases, the coke market is expected to generally hold up well in the short term.

This week, the ferrous metals series saw a high-level correction. At the beginning of the week, the market was abuzz with news that blast furnaces in Tangshan would be subject to 40% production restrictions by capacity at the end of August, leading to a pullback in raw material prices. Although a decline in production is beneficial for finished products, the collapse of cost support pushed these products to their lowest levels in nearly a month. In the latter half of the week, rumors circulated about stricter enforcement of order inspections, and actions were already being taken at southern ports, resulting in a more pronounced drop in HRC compared to rebar, narrowing the spread between the two. In the spot market, when the spot-futures price spread narrowed, there was still speculative demand for long positions, but the hot and rainy weather suppressed the recovery of end-use demand...

According to the SMM survey, the large-caliber inventory of SMM Ningbo HRC this week was 345,200 mt (as of August 20), with a WoW increase of 45,700 mt.This week, HRC prices fluctuated downward, with weekly spot price declines of 30-80 yuan/mt. The market trading atmosphere was poor during the week, with downstream end-users mainly adopting a wait-and-see approach. As of the afternoon close on August 22, the most-traded HRC 2510 futures contract closed at 3,361 yuan/mt.

[SMM daily coke and coal review] In terms of news, major steel mills in Hebei and Shandong accepted the seventh round of coke price increases by 50-55 yuan/mt. In terms of supply, coking enterprises' profits expanded, boosting production enthusiasm, but due to production restrictions related to the military parade, supply is unlikely to increase significantly. Coking companies are shipping smoothly, with relatively small inventory pressure. On the demand side, the production restriction dates for steel mills in Tangshan have been set, which may lead to a decrease in coke demand. However, as steel mill profits remain moderate and hot metal production is declining slowly, there is still a rigid demand for coke. Overall, with limited potential for a significant increase in coke supply and downstream steel mills needing to restock coke, the short-term coke market is expected to be generally stable with slight rise.