Macro and fundamentals intertwine, upside room for copper prices today expected to be limited

Published: Aug 26, 2025 08:31

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On the macro front, oil prices climbed about 2% on Monday, extending last week's gains, as the market anticipated more US sanctions on Russian oil and potential disruptions to supply due to Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, with copper prices following suit. Fundamentals side, supply-wise, arrivals of imported copper cathode are expected to be limited, while domestic copper cathode will gradually supplement in small quantities, leading to a slight increase in total supply WoW. Demand side, purchase willingness is curbed by month-end financial pressure and high copper prices. As of Monday, August 25, SMM national mainstream region copper inventories decreased by 9,000 mt from the previous Thursday to 123,000 mt. Price-wise, the market is currently digesting Powell's remarks, with the US dollar rebounding from lows, capping copper price gains. Attention should be paid to comments from US Fed officials later today, to see if they share the same policy views as Powell. Overall, with the current strength of the US dollar, the upside room for copper prices today is expected to be limited.

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