[SHFE Tin Midday Review: LME Low Inventory Support vs Domestic Demand Weakness, the Most-Traded SHFE Tin 2510 Contract Struggles at 270,000 Yuan/mt Level] During today's midday session, the most-traded SHFE tin 2510 contract closed at 273,120 yuan/mt, up 1.26% from the previous day, with intraday fluctuations ranging between 269,030-273,570 yuan/mt. Despite briefly breaking through the 270,000 yuan/mt level during the night session, trading was weak during the daytime, and trading volume pulled back MoM, reflecting a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Meanwhile, the LME tin contract edged up to $34,355/mt, up 0.66%, supported by low overseas inventory.

According to SMM, based on the notice "On Standardizing Policies for Attracting Investment" (Notice No. 770 of 2025) issued by four national ministries and commissions including the National Development and Reform Commission, local governments were required to standardize their policies for attracting investment. Additionally, any non-compliant contracts signed after May 2024 needed to be terminated by August 31, 2025. However, in mid-August, secondary copper rod enterprises and scrap anode plate producers across the country stated that they had only become aware of the notice but had not yet received specific instructions from relevant authorities. Despite this, production at many companies had already begun to change. Therefore, the SMM recycling resources team headed to Jiangxi, visiting enterprises directly to gain a comprehensive understanding of how policy changes were impacting businesses

[SHFE Tin Brief: Tin Prices Continue to Consolidate in a Range, Low Inventory Supports While Weak Demand Constrains] SHFE tin is expected to maintain sideways movement between 250000-275000 yuan/mt. Low inventory and supply disruptions provide bottom support, but weak demand and macro uncertainties limit upside room. Attention should be paid to the progress of production resumptions in Myanmar, DRC's geopolitical risks, and the pace of recovery in the semiconductor industry.

This week in the hydrometallurgical recycling sector, cobalt sulfate prices continued to rise, nickel sulfate prices remained largely flat, while lithium carbonate and other salt products saw a sharp increase following the release of information such as mining certifications in Jiangxi. The coefficients for nickel and cobalt in materials like ternary and lithium cobalt oxide black powder stayed generally unchanged, whereas the lithium coefficient continued to climb. The lithium point price for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) black powder also rose steadily this week. Taking ternary black powder as an example, the current nickel-cobalt coefficient for ternary cathode black powder ranges between 72.5% and 75%, remaining largely stable compared to last week, while the lithium coefficient ranges from 72% to 75%, showing a week-on-week increase.

In the echelon utilization market, rigid demand remained generally stable by late August, with both domestic and international markets still receiving some support due to the policy transition period. Although sales enthusiasm for new energy vehicles gradually faded in the early part of August, the supply of retired power batteries stayed steady, while end-use market demand performed weakly, and limited growth is expected in the near term. The earlier increase in lithium carbonate prices has been transmitted to the terminal battery cells, leading to a slight rise in cell prices, which also nudged up prices of echelon cells. However, as the market remains in a tentative supply-demand balance, companies are mostly dealing at market rates, and further significant price increases for echelon cells are likely to be limited. Overall market activity remains subdued, with some echelon companies continuing to maintain low inventory levels and purchasing mainly based on immediate needs.

This week, the price of cobalt sulfate continued to rise, nickel sulfate prices increased slightly, while the prices of salt products such as lithium carbonate fluctuated. Although the prices of salts increased, the coefficients for nickel and cobalt in ternary and lithium cobalt oxide black powder saw a slight uptick this week, whereas the lithium coefficient began to adjust downward after previous gains. The lithium point price for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) black powder also largely fluctuated this week. Taking ternary black powder as an example: currently, the nickel-cobalt coefficient for ternary cathode black powder ranges from 73% to 75%, up compared to last week, while the lithium coefficient ranges from 69% to 74%, down compared to last week. With the recent rise in lithium prices, ternary recycling hydrometallurgical companies are now offering quotes in two trends. One trend involves a unified coefficient quote for nickel, cobalt, and lithium due to the recent weeks' increase in lithium carbonate prices, with quotes falling around the average on our website.

[SHFE TIN NOON COMMENTARY: HIGH SPOT PREMIUMS FOR TIN INGOTS CONSTRAIN VOLUMES AS BUYERS LIMIT PURCHASES TO SMALL LOTS] On August 26, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2509 contract closed at 269,400 yuan/mt, up 0.34% from the previous day, with the intraday trading range narrowing to 268,330-270,350 yuan/mt. Trading was sluggish, and open interest saw a slight decrease, reflecting a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. LME tin opened at $33,800/mt (down 0.13% from the previous day), fluctuating around $33,900/mt during the Asian session, facing significant resistance at $34,000/mt.

[SHFE TIN NOON COMMENTARY: MACRO DOVE SENTIMENT BOOSTS TIN PRICES REBOUND, TIGHT SUPPLY AND WEAK DEMAND LIMIT UPSIDE ROOM] During today's noon session, the most-traded SHFE tin 2509 contract showed a low-to-high trend. It opened at 266,000 yuan/mt and climbed to 271,090 yuan/mt during the session, mainly due to the recovery of macro sentiment and support from the LME. The contract closed at 269,340 yuan/mt at noon, up 3,010 yuan/mt or 1.13% from the previous trading day's settlement price. Trading volume and open interest both increased, indicating a significant rise in market trading sentiment. LME tin prices also strengthened, closing at $33,845/mt overnight, with a daily gain of 1.11% and a weekly increase of 0.45%, showing enhanced short-term bullish expectations for tin prices.

This week, the ferrous metals series saw a high-level correction. At the beginning of the week, the market was abuzz with news that blast furnaces in Tangshan would be subject to 40% production restrictions by capacity at the end of August, leading to a pullback in raw material prices. Although a decline in production is beneficial for finished products, the collapse of cost support pushed these products to their lowest levels in nearly a month. In the latter half of the week, rumors circulated about stricter enforcement of order inspections, and actions were already being taken at southern ports, resulting in a more pronounced drop in HRC compared to rebar, narrowing the spread between the two. In the spot market, when the spot-futures price spread narrowed, there was still speculative demand for long positions, but the hot and rainy weather suppressed the recovery of end-use demand...

[SHFE TIN NOON REVIEW: SHFE TIN PRICES FLUCTUATE DOWNWARD UNDER MACRO PRESSURE AND STALEMATED SUPPLY AND DEMAND] As of this morning's close, the most-traded SHFE tin 2509 contract closed at 265,710 yuan/mt, down 19,400 yuan from the previous day's settlement price, a decrease of 0.72%. The futures showed a fluctuating downward trend, with the intraday fluctuation range narrowing to 266,000-267,000 yuan/mt. Market trading was sluggish, and open interest slightly decreased, reflecting investors' cautious sentiment ahead of key macro events. Meanwhile, LME tin prices were also under pressure, closing at $33,440/mt overnight, down $35 (a decrease of 0.1%), with the key support level shifting down to the $33,000 mark.