【SMM Analysis】July fruit shell charcoal imports plummet 31% YoY! Prices remain at historical highs, sodium-ion battery demand and supply chain dynamics draw attention

According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in July 2025, fruit shell charcoal imports amounted to 11,092.3 mt, down 3% MoM and 31% YoY. The average import price of fruit shell charcoal in June was $653.97/mt. In May, the average import price was $652.95/mt, with the average import price remaining flat MoM but still at a historically high level.

Recently, the rise in fruit shell charcoal (mainly coconut shell charcoal) import prices is the result of multiple factors. In January 2025, freight rates for large containers on the US West Coast route increased by $1,000-1,600, while those on the US East Coast route rose by $1,050-1,175, directly pushing up import costs. Supply side, Southeast Asia, as the main source of global coconut shells, faced multiple natural disasters in 2024. Thailand experienced reduced fragrant coconut production due to drought and pests, and coconut production in the Philippines and Indonesia was also affected, leading to a decrease in coconut shell raw material supply, which in turn caused a shortage of coconut shell charcoal. Since H2 2024, suppliers of coconut shell charcoal in major producing countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines have generally adopted a "limited supply, higher price" strategy, further exacerbating the tight supply situation. By July 2025, the tax-inclusive factory price of imported coconut shell charcoal had exceeded 8,000 yuan/mt.

Downstream demand has shown explosive growth. Coconut shell charcoal, due to its natural porous structure, is an ideal raw material for hard carbon in sodium-ion batteries, with approximately 1,500 mt of coconut shell charcoal required per GWh of sodium-ion battery. As the demand for sodium-ion battery cells gradually increases, the demand for coconut shell charcoal has also surged significantly. In the environmental protection sector, traditional areas such as water treatment and air purification continue to see growing demand for coconut shell activated carbon. For example, in 2024, the market size for activated carbon used in drinking water purification in China expanded 25% YoY, and coconut shell charcoal, due to its low impurities and high adsorption efficiency, became the preferred raw material for high-end water purification equipment. China's "dual carbon" strategy requires activated carbon companies to use high fixed carbon raw materials (≥70%). Low-quality charcoal from Vietnam, unable to meet carbon emission accounting requirements, has been gradually phased out, and import demand has shifted towards high-quality sources like Indonesia and the Philippines, further intensifying the supply tension and driving up prices. In 2024, the offshore RMB depreciated 0.85% against the US dollar, and in May 2025, it fell below the 7.3 mark, causing the import cost denominated in US dollars to rise accordingly. For instance, the CIF price of Indonesian coconut shell charcoal increased from $450/mt at the beginning of 2024 to $580/mt in May 2025, with exchange rate factors contributing about 15% of the increase. Chinese customs have strengthened inspections on imported coconut shell charcoal for impurity content, activation level, and other indicators. In 2024, the number of cases where shipments were returned due to non-compliance with component standards and classified as "solid waste" was up 40% YoY. To mitigate risks, companies tend to purchase higher-priced, high-quality raw materials, further driving up the average market price.

In the short term, the import prices of coconut shell charcoal will continue to fluctuate at highs. The demand from the sodium-ion battery industry is growing rigidly, while the supply of raw materials from Southeast Asia is recovering slowly, and maritime transportation costs remain high. These factors will all support prices. In the long run, as expansion plans in countries like Indonesia and the Philippines materialize (for example, Indonesia plans to add 100,000 mt of coconut shell charcoal capacity by 2025) and as biomass substitute raw materials (such as bamboo-based charcoal and straw charcoal) become more technologically mature, prices are expected to gradually pull back. However, before the technology for substitute raw materials is widely applied, the import market for coconut shell charcoal will still seek a new balance amid high fluctuations.