[Aluminum Morning Session Summary: Aluminum Prices Continue to Fluctuate at Highs, Downstream Procurement Fear of High Prices Intensifies] Macro perspective, Trump announced trade agreements with multiple countries; the specific terms are yet unknown. However, this move may intensify competition in aluminum semis exports, exerting bearish pressure on future aluminum prices. Domestically, the NDRC emphasized expanding domestic demand and fair competition, signaling a clear intent for policy support, but the actual transmission to consumption still requires time. Demand remains the core focus for the market going forward. Some companies have started stockpiling in anticipation of improved orders during the upcoming peak season. The operating rate of downstream aluminum sectors in China has slightly rebounded, but as aluminum prices rebound, terminal shipments have declined again, and the spot procurement volume by processing enterprises has noticeably decreased. Inventory-wise, the social inventory of aluminum ingot in major consumption areas recorded 463,500 mt on Tuesday, an increase of 4,500 mt from Monday. In the traditional off-season, demand is weak, leading to continuous inventory buildup. Suppliers, not optimistic about future premiums and discounts, are actively selling. With A00 aluminum prices at high levels, downstream procurement sentiment is weak, and spot premiums are under pressure. Overall, short-term consumption shows only marginal improvement, and there is a risk of further inventory buildup. However, compared to historical data, the current total inventory remains low. Under the influence of macro tailwinds, aluminum prices are expected to receive more support, and it is anticipated that aluminum prices will continue to fluctuate at highs this week. Further upward momentum will depend on the realization of the peak aluminum consumption season.

[SHFE announced adjustments to the margin and price limit for cast aluminum alloy futures starting from August 28] With aluminum prices stabilizing yesterday, most secondary aluminum market quotes remained steady or increased by 100 yuan/mt. The current tight supply of aluminum scrap and raw material costs provided strong support to the prices of secondary aluminum alloys. Additionally, recent news about the cancellation of tax rebates and additional taxes in multiple regions has led to a high sentiment among enterprises to raise prices in response to rising cost pressures. In the short term, prices are more likely to rise than fall.

[SMm Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Scrap Market Fluctuates at Highs, ADC12 Import Losses Narrow] The current supply of aluminum scrap remains tight, with raw material costs providing strong support for secondary aluminum alloy prices. On Monday, the SMM ADC12 price increased by 100 yuan/mt to 20,550 yuan/mt. In addition, recent news about the cancellation of tax rebates and additional taxes in multiple regions has led to a high sentiment among enterprises to raise prices in response to rising cost pressures. In the short term, prices are more likely to rise than fall.

[Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Domestic Macro Tailwinds Support Strong Short-Term Aluminum Prices] Macro perspective, the US plans to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products, escalating global trade tensions and potentially dampening overseas demand expectations; domestically, the NDRC emphasized expanding domestic demand and fair competition, with clear intentions of policy support, but it will take time for these measures to translate into actual consumption. Demand remains the core focus of the market going forward, with some companies already beginning to stockpile in anticipation of improved orders during the peak season. The operating rate of downstream aluminum enterprises in China has slightly rebounded, but as aluminum prices have rebounded, terminal shipments have declined again, and the spot procurement volume of processing enterprises has noticeably decreased. Inventory-wise, national social inventory of aluminum ingot was recorded at 616,000 mt on Monday, up by 20,000 mt from last Thursday; total outflows from warehouses last week amounted to 111,200 mt, down 1,300 mt WoW. With concentrated arrivals over the weekend, social inventory of aluminum ingot rose back above 600,000 mt. Coupled with the rebound in aluminum prices, procurement sentiment weakened, putting some pressure on spot premiums. Overall, short-term consumption is only marginally improving, and there is a risk of further inventory buildup, but the current total inventory remains low compared to historical levels. Under the influence of macro tailwinds, aluminum prices are expected to receive more support, and it is anticipated that aluminum prices will continue to fluctuate at highs this week. Further gains will depend on the realization of the peak aluminum consumption season.

Futures: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $9,739/mt, dipped to a low of $9,708/mt in early trading, then fluctuated upward throughout the session, reaching a high of $9,813.5/mt near the close.

[Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Macro Tailwinds Dominate Aluminum Prices, Consumption Strength Awaits Peak Season Verification] On the macro front, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and increased policy support in China to boost domestic demand have created a bullish atmosphere, which is expected to bolster aluminum consumption prospects. Fundamentally, on the supply side, with a small amount of replacement capacity coming online, production has seen a slight increase; cost-wise, the full cost of domestic aluminum stands at 16,718 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt WoW, with industry profits remaining around 3,960 yuan/mt. The demand side remains the core focus for the market going forward. When aluminum prices were hovering around 20,500 yuan/mt last week, downstream enterprises' restocking volumes increased, with some companies already starting to build up inventory in anticipation of better orders during the upcoming peak season. Domestic downstream operating rates saw a modest rebound, but as aluminum prices rebounded, terminal shipments declined again, and procurement volumes of processed materials significantly decreased. Overall, high aluminum prices are exerting some pressure on off-season consumption, but as the peak season approaches, expectations for improved orders are growing. Last week, aluminum ingot inventory pressures eased, and inventories slightly decreased to 596,000 mt. In summary, while short-term consumption shows only marginal improvement, there is a risk of inventory buildup for aluminum ingots, but the current total inventory level is not high. Moreover, some secondary aluminum enterprises in provinces like Anhui and Jiangxi have received notices of the termination of tax rebate policies, posing a risk of declining capacity utilization rates for scrap utilization enterprises, which will provide some support for primary aluminum consumption. Under the influence of macro tailwinds, aluminum prices are expected to gain more upward momentum, and it is anticipated that aluminum prices will continue to fluctuate at highs this week, with further gains contingent upon the realization of peak season consumption.

[SMMS Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: The Most-Traded Contract Rose 0.55% Tight Supply of Aluminum Scrap and Policy Disruptions Make Prices More Likely to Rise Than Fall] The current tight supply of aluminum scrap continues, with raw material costs providing strong support for secondary aluminum alloy prices. In addition, recent news about the cancellation of tax rebates in multiple regions including Anhui and Jiangxi has led to a high sentiment among enterprises to raise prices in response to the pressure of rising costs, making prices more likely to rise than fall in the short term.