[SMM HRC Daily Review] Inventory Accumulation Expands, Futures Prices Remain in the Doldrums

Published: Aug 21, 2025 17:10
Today, the most-traded HRC futures contract fluctuated rangebound and closed at 3,375, down 0.45%. On the supply side, this week's HRC production was 3.3485 million mt, down 29,800 mt MoM, indicating a slight decrease in HRC supply pressure. On the demand side, high temperatures and frequent rains significantly impacted the recovery of end-use demand, with no clear signs of exiting the off-season yet. In terms of raw materials, maintenance due to environmental protection-driven production restrictions increased in the north by month-end, potentially leading to a decline in hot metal, weakening short-term cost support. Overall, this week saw an expansion in the accumulation of both mill and social inventory, with total inventory up 137,200 mt MoM. The fundamentals continue to reflect off-season performance, making it difficult for a strong upward momentum to emerge. Although production restrictions in the north increased by month-end, the drag from raw material prices still weighs on finished product trends. Therefore, it is expected that HRC will continue to fluctuate rangebound in the near term, with limited upside and downside.

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