[Analysis: Tariff Policy Changes Lead to an Export Rush, July Lead-Acid Battery Exports Surge MoM]

SMM reported on August 20th: According to customs data, China's lead-acid battery exports in July 2025 were 21.2866 million units, up 13.56% MoM and down 3.79% YoY; the cumulative export volume from January-July 2025 was 134 million units, down 6.17% YoY. In July 2025, China's lead-acid battery imports were 394,100 units, down 18.92% MoM and 18.03% YoY; the cumulative import volume from January-July 2025 was 3.1775 million units, down 0.87% YoY.
In July, both domestic and overseas lead prices showed a pattern of jumping initially and then pulling back. During this period, the SHFE/LME price ratio remained unfavorable for China's lead-acid battery exports. However, the significant MoM increase in lead-acid battery exports in July was mainly due to changes in tariff policies. On one hand, the US "reciprocal tariff" negotiations were set to restart after July, prompting companies involved in re-export trade to accelerate their exports. On the other hand, the Middle East announced the results of its anti-dumping investigation into starting-type lead-acid batteries from China, imposing additional tariffs of 25-70% on related battery exports, leading some companies to rush to export before the tariffs took effect. As a result, despite higher lead material costs compared to overseas markets, China's lead-acid battery exports in July reversed the downward trend seen in the previous two months, recording positive growth. Additionally, it is understood that the new GCC tariffs will take effect in September. Considering the shipping cycle from China to the Middle East, some lead-acid battery companies have already seen a decline in export orders in August, which is expected to weaken subsequent lead-acid battery exports.