After the tariff shock and global trade adjustments, the copper market remains tight in 2025. Data shows that US refined copper inventories have surged to a 21-year high, following front-loaded imports by traders seeking to avoid potential tariffs and capture inter-market arbitrage.

[SMM Analysis] The SMM copper research team, based on their professional market research experience, has developed an offshore spot copper cathode procurement and sales sentiment index after long-term data accumulation and repeated validation, building upon the existing SMM Yangshan copper premiums methodology.

According to customs data, China’s refined copper imports reached 296,900 mt in July 2025, down 1.20% MoM but up 7.56% YoY. Meanwhile, exports surged sharply to 118,400 mt, representing a 49.86% MoM increase and a 69.13% YoY jump. Both import and export volumes exceeded market expectations.

According to customs data, China imported 296,900 mt of copper cathode in July, down 1.7% MoM and up 7.56% YoY. SMM compiled data from major producers of non-registered copper cathode, showing that in July, the proportion of such non-registered sources in China's imports exceeded 70% again.

[SHFE Copper Spot] Looking ahead to next week, imports are expected to continue arriving, but domestic supply is set to decrease. With copper prices fluctuating rangebound, downstream buyers are expected to make just-in-time procurement, and SHFE copper spot trades will likely remain in a slight premium.