[SMM Daily Coke Review] In terms of supply, coking enterprises' profits have been somewhat restored, and production enthusiasm has slightly increased, leading to an increase in supply. Coking companies are shipping smoothly, with overall inventory pressure being relatively small. On the demand side, the production restriction dates for steel mills in the Tangshan area have been set, which may lead to a decrease in coke demand. However, as steel mill profits remain moderate and hot metal production is declining slowly, there is still some support for coke demand. In summary, due to the constraints of production restrictions related to the military parade, it is difficult for coke supply to see a significant increase. Downstream steel mills are purchasing coke as needed, and the coke market is expected to operate stably in the short term.

[SMM Daily Coke Review] In terms of supply, affected by the environmental protection policy, coke enterprises have received production restrictions, and subsequent coke supply will further tighten. Moreover, the inventory of coke at these enterprises remains consistently low, making it difficult for short-term coke supply to improve. On the demand side, the arrival situation of coke at steel mills is gradually improving. Additionally, some steel mills in Tangshan have been notified to restrict blast furnace capacity by 30%-40% from August 31 to September 3, leading to an expectation of reduced rigid demand for coke from steel mills. In summary, the intensity of recent environmental protection-driven production restrictions continues to increase. Apart from coke enterprise production restrictions, steel mills are also expected to implement production restrictions soon. The tight supply and demand pattern for coke may change, and in the short term, the coke market is likely to hold up well with a slight rise. However, it will be challenging for the seventh round of coke price increases to materialize.

SMM Steel, August 19 - According to SMM statistics, the estimated total resource shipments for mainstream markets this week were 270,100 mt, down 18.57% WoW from last week's shipping levels. By market:

The most-traded HRC futures contract fluctuated rangebound today, closing at 3,416, down 0.38% at the end of the session. Supply side, the impact from maintenance on HRC was 212,000 mt this week, up 64,500 mt WoW, and is expected to be 258,000 mt next week, up 46,000 mt WoW from this week, indicating a slight decrease in HRC supply. Demand side, high temperatures and frequent rain have significantly affected the recovery of end-use demand, with no clear signs of a complete exit from the off-season yet. Raw material, increased maintenance due to environmental protection-driven production restrictions in the north by month-end may lead to a downward trend in hot metal, weakening short-term cost support. Overall, expectations for reduced supply in finished products may increase. Continued attention should be paid to SMM maintenance data. If production restrictions in the north continue to rise, it could reinforce the "supply reduction" logic, potentially leading to a modest price increase in finished products, but with limited upside. It is recommended to mainly adopt a strategy of selling on rallies.

[SMM Daily Coke and Coal Review] In terms of supply, coking enterprises' profits improved, boosting production enthusiasm. Coking companies actively shipped goods, with coke inventory remaining at a low level. On the demand side, steel mill profits were good, but an increase in blast furnace maintenance led to a decrease in rigid demand for coke. Overall, affected by production restrictions due to the military parade, both coking enterprises and steel mills faced subsequent production restrictions, alleviating the supply-demand imbalance in the coke market. In the short term, the coke market may stabilize, and the difficulty of implementing the seventh round of price increases has increased.

[SMM Daily Coke and Coal Review] In terms of news, major coke producers initiated the seventh round of price increases, with an increase of 50-55 yuan/mt, effective from midnight on August 19. In terms of supply, coke mill profits have been restored, leading to higher production enthusiasm. Additionally, coke shipments are smooth, resulting in relatively small inventory pressure for coke mills. Given the strong expectation of production restrictions before the parade, some coke mills face production constraints, maintaining a tight supply situation for coke. On the demand side, recent arrivals at steel mills have improved, but due to good steel mill profits and a slow decline in hot metal, some low-inventory steel mills are still actively purchasing coke. Overall, the coke market is expected to hold up well in the short term, generally stable with slight rise.

This week, the ferrous metals series continued its trend of rising first and then falling. In the first half of the week, news about safety inspections and production restrictions of coking coal and coke led to a sharp increase in coking coal and coke prices, driving a rebound in the ferrous metals series from low levels. In the second half of the week, the market's expectation that new coal mine safety regulations would lead to the closure of small and medium-sized coal mines did not materialize. Coupled with an increase in transaction fees and the expectation that the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) would cool down the coking coal market, the follow-up market trend ended, and the futures market experienced a deep correction. In the spot market, transactions were moderate in the first half of the week, but most were driven by speculative demand for calendar spreads, while end-user demand remained in the off-season...