[SMM HRC Daily Review] Increased Steel Mill Maintenance Expected to Lift Futures Prices?

Published: Aug 19, 2025 17:22
The most-traded HRC futures contract fluctuated rangebound today, closing at 3,416, down 0.38% at the end of the day. Supply side, the impact from maintenance on HRC this week was 212,000 mt, up 64,500 mt WoW. The expected impact next week is 258,000 mt, an increase of 46,000 mt WoW, indicating a slight decrease in HRC supply. Demand side, high temperatures and frequent rain have significantly affected the recovery of end-use demand, with no clear signs of exiting the off-season yet. Raw material, increased maintenance due to environmental protection-driven production restrictions in the north by month-end may lead to a downward trend in hot metal, weakening short-term cost support. Overall, expectations for reduced supply in finished steel products may rise. Continued attention should be paid to SMM's maintenance data. If production restrictions in the north continue to increase, it could reinforce the "supply reduction" logic, potentially leading to a modest price increase in finished steel. However, the upside is limited, and it is recommended to mainly focus on selling at higher prices.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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