[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Macro Disturbances and Peak Season Expectations Intertwined, Aluminum Prices Fluctuate Upward in the Short Term Awaiting Validation]

Futures: LME copper opened at $9,679.5/mt overnight, fluctuated rangebound at $9,670.5/mt in early trading, then the center of copper prices gradually moved upward to a high of $9,712/mt, and finally closed at $9,721/mt, up 0.38%, with trading volume reaching 14,000 lots and open interest reaching 263,000 lots.

[smm cast aluminum alloy morning comment: july aluminum alloy imports saw a significant YoY decline while aluminum scrap imports continued to rise on a YoY basis] aluminum prices pulled back slightly yesterday, with the SMM ADC12 price holding steady at 20,350 yuan/mt. currently, the supply of aluminum scrap remains tight, leading to a slower drop in aluminum scrap prices and supporting secondary aluminum alloy prices due to high raw material costs. additionally, recent news about the cancellation of tax rebates in multiple areas of anhui and jiangxi has led companies to maintain firm quotations in response to rising cost pressures.

[Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Macro and Fundamentals Intertwined, Aluminum Prices Maintain Volatile Pattern] MIIT convened a photovoltaic industry symposium, deploying measures to strengthen the management of PV project investments, promoting the orderly exit of outdated capacity through market-oriented and law-based methods. In terms of supply, there were relatively small changes, with aluminum production holding steady and showing slight growth. On the demand side, the September-October peak season is approaching, but under the current off-season influence, consumption from end-users to processed materials is unlikely to exceed expectations. The home appliance and PV sectors, which previously provided strong support, are slowing down, and some export orders for aluminum terminals have also declined, while the construction sector continues to experience an unusually sharp downturn. Amidst the off-season atmosphere, aluminum prices fluctuate at highs, yet the recovery in consumption remains relatively weak. With supply still abundant, inventory buildup is expected to continue in the short term. Overall, macro tailwinds both domestically and overseas, combined with potential risks in aluminum supply, keep prices holding up well. However, during the consumption off-season, the pressure of inventory buildup remains significant. After positive sentiment is digested, the center of aluminum prices may face the risk of jumping initially and then pulling back, with the 21000 yuan/mt level remaining under pressure. Subsequent attention should be paid to changes in inventory and market sentiment.

Futures: LME copper opened and hit a high of $9,747/mt overnight, then the price center gradually moved downward, approaching a low of $9,680/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at $9,684.5/mt, down 0.69%.

[SMm Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Overnight Cast Aluminum Alloy Consolidated Slightly Lower, Bulls Mainly Reduced Positions] Recently, due to policy adjustments in some regions and tight aluminum scrap supply, enterprises mainly maintained firm quotations under high raw material costs, with the SMM ADC12 price holding steady at 20,350 yuan/mt. Demand side, the traditional off-season atmosphere continued, with actual consumption showing little improvement and mediocre performance in transactions. In the short term, cost support and policy disruptions may continue to underpin prices, but weak demand and inventory buildup pressure will limit upside room. Subsequently, it is necessary to closely monitor the implementation of policies and the recovery pace of peak season demand.

[Aluminum Morning Session Summary: Mixed Macro Signals Keep Aluminum Prices in Volatile Pattern] The MIIT held a PV industry symposium, deploying measures to strengthen investment management of PV projects and promote the orderly exit of outdated capacity through market-oriented and law-based methods. Fundamentally, in terms of supply, there has been relatively small change, with stable and slightly increased aluminum production. On the demand side, the September-October peak season is approaching, but under the current off-season influence, consumption from end-users to processed materials is unlikely to exceed expectations. The growth of previously strong sectors such as home appliances and PV has slowed down, and some export orders for aluminum end-products have also declined, while the construction sector continues to experience an unusually sharp downturn. Amidst the off-season atmosphere, aluminum prices fluctuate at highs, yet the recovery in consumption remains relatively weak. With supply still abundant, inventory buildup is expected to continue in the short term. Overall, macro tailwinds both domestically and overseas, along with potential risks in aluminum supply, keep prices holding up well. However, during the consumption off-season, the pressure of inventory buildup remains significant. After positive sentiment is digested, the center of aluminum prices may face a risk of jumping initially and then pulling back, with the 21000 yuan/mt level still under pressure. Subsequent attention should be paid to changes in inventory and market sentiment.

Futures: LME copper opened at $9,737.5/mt overnight. Prices initially fluctuated downward to test $9,722/mt before fluctuating considerably and finally closing at the day's high of $9,752/mt, down 0.08%.