[smm hrc daily review] time window narrows, futures price fluctuations restricted

Published: Aug 18, 2025 17:32
today, the most-traded hrc futures contract first rose then fell, closing at 3419 with a decline of 0.21%. supply side, some steel mills in south china have new maintenance plans this week, leading to an expected slight drop back in hrc production. demand side, high temperatures and frequent rain significantly impact the recovery of end-use demand, with no clear signs of fully exiting the off-season yet. raw material side, the current 93 parade has not substantially affected blast furnaces, with hot metal remaining at relatively high levels, while coke is on track for its seventh round of increases, potentially stabilizing cost support in the short term. overall, although smm concludes that the impact of northern environmental protection-driven production restrictions is less than expected, rumors continue to cause disturbances until a final conclusion is reached. there remains a possibility for further price increases driven by sentiment, but given the narrowing time window, upward space will be further constrained. it is recommended to mainly focus on selling at higher prices.

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