Futures: LME copper opened and hit a high of $9,747/mt overnight, then the price center gradually moved downward, approaching a low of $9,680/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at $9,684.5/mt, down 0.69%.

[SMm Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Overnight Cast Aluminum Alloy Consolidated Slightly Lower, Bulls Mainly Reduced Positions] Recently, due to policy adjustments in some regions and tight aluminum scrap supply, enterprises mainly maintained firm quotations under high raw material costs, with the SMM ADC12 price holding steady at 20,350 yuan/mt. Demand side, the traditional off-season atmosphere continued, with actual consumption showing little improvement and mediocre performance in transactions. In the short term, cost support and policy disruptions may continue to underpin prices, but weak demand and inventory buildup pressure will limit upside room. Subsequently, it is necessary to closely monitor the implementation of policies and the recovery pace of peak season demand.

[Aluminum Morning Session Summary: Mixed Macro Signals Keep Aluminum Prices in Volatile Pattern] The MIIT held a PV industry symposium, deploying measures to strengthen investment management of PV projects and promote the orderly exit of outdated capacity through market-oriented and law-based methods. Fundamentally, in terms of supply, there has been relatively small change, with stable and slightly increased aluminum production. On the demand side, the September-October peak season is approaching, but under the current off-season influence, consumption from end-users to processed materials is unlikely to exceed expectations. The growth of previously strong sectors such as home appliances and PV has slowed down, and some export orders for aluminum end-products have also declined, while the construction sector continues to experience an unusually sharp downturn. Amidst the off-season atmosphere, aluminum prices fluctuate at highs, yet the recovery in consumption remains relatively weak. With supply still abundant, inventory buildup is expected to continue in the short term. Overall, macro tailwinds both domestically and overseas, along with potential risks in aluminum supply, keep prices holding up well. However, during the consumption off-season, the pressure of inventory buildup remains significant. After positive sentiment is digested, the center of aluminum prices may face a risk of jumping initially and then pulling back, with the 21000 yuan/mt level still under pressure. Subsequent attention should be paid to changes in inventory and market sentiment.

Futures: LME copper opened at $9,737.5/mt overnight. Prices initially fluctuated downward to test $9,722/mt before fluctuating considerably and finally closing at the day's high of $9,752/mt, down 0.08%.

[SMm Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Futures Prices Fluctuate Rangebound, Cost Support Keeps ADC12 Steady] Affected by recent policy adjustments in some regions and tight aluminum scrap supply, the decline in raw material costs was limited, supporting companies in maintaining firm quotes. The SMM ADC12 price remained steady at 20,350 yuan/mt. On the demand side, the traditional off-season atmosphere continued, with actual consumption showing little improvement and mediocre performance in transactions. In the short term, cost support and policy disruptions may continue to underpin prices, but weak demand coupled with inventory buildup pressure will constrain upside room. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the implementation of policies and the pace of recovery in peak season demand.

[Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Inventory Buildup Pressure Remains in Off-Season, Aluminum Prices May Fluctuate at Highs in the Short Term] The State Council meeting emphasized the need to focus on key points to strengthen the domestic large cycle and continuously stimulate consumption potential. Robust measures should be taken to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market, combining urban renewal with the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated houses, and releasing improvement demand through multiple channels. From a fundamental perspective, in terms of supply, changes are relatively small, with aluminum production steadily increasing. On the demand side, the September-October peak season is approaching, but under the current off-season influence, consumption from end-users to processed materials is unlikely to exceed expectations. The growth of previously strong sectors such as home appliances and PV has slowed down, and some export orders for aluminum terminals have also declined. The construction industry remains in an ultra-seasonal downturn. In the off-season atmosphere, aluminum prices fluctuate at highs, and the recovery of consumption is still relatively weak. With supply remaining ample, the trend of inventory buildup is expected to continue in the short term. Overall, macro tailwinds both domestically and overseas, along with potential risks in aluminum supply, keep aluminum prices holding up well. However, during the off-season, the pressure of inventory buildup remains significant. After the digestion of positive sentiment, the center of aluminum prices may face the risk of jumping initially and then pulling back, with the 21000 yuan/mt level still under pressure. Subsequent attention should be paid to changes in inventory and capital sentiment.

Futures: LME copper opened at $9,754/mt last Friday night, initially fluctuating downward to test the low of $9,725/mt before gradually rebounding to touch a high of $9,808/mt, then fluctuating downward again to finally close at $9,759/mt, down 0.17%, with trading volume at 12,000 lots and open interest at 271,000 lots.

[SMm Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Off-Season Inventory Buildup Suppresses Prices, Policy Adjustment Period Elevates Raw Material Costs] Last Friday, aluminum prices remained stable. The secondary aluminum market lacked the sentiment for price adjustments, and prices stayed steady, with SMM ADC12 holding at 20,350 yuan/mt. Recently, multiple local governments have been clearing and abolishing non-compliant fiscal rebate and subsidy policies. Affected by this policy adjustment, some secondary aluminum plants have adopted measures such as reducing or halting production to observe the direction of subsequent policy implementation.

[Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Macro and Fundamentals Intertwined, Aluminum Prices Hold Up Well in the Short Term] Overall, on the macro side, PBOC's Q2 2025 monetary policy report emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose policy, focusing on price rebound and supply-demand balance; the US Trump administration announced an expansion of the 50% tariff range on steel and aluminum imports. Amidst the off-season atmosphere, aluminum prices fluctuate at highs, with consumption recovery still relatively weak. Given the continued ample supply, inventory buildup is expected to persist in the short term. In summary, domestic and overseas macro tailwinds, coupled with potential risks in primary aluminum supply, keep aluminum prices holding up well. However, under the consumption off-season, the pressure of inventory buildup remains significant, and after positive sentiment is digested, the center of aluminum prices may face the risk of jumping initially and then pulling back. Subsequent attention should be paid to changes in inventory and market sentiment.

This week, the overall operating rate of China's downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises rose by 0.8 percentage points MoM to 59.5%, indicating a mild market recovery. In specific segments, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 1.0 percentage points to 56.6%, with a notable increase in primary aluminum consumption by top-tier enterprises. The operating rate of aluminum plate/sheet and strip rose by 1.0 percentage points to 65.0%, driven by stockpiling orders for can stock, automotive sheets, and other peak-season products. The operating rate of aluminum wire and cable increased by 0.8 percentage points to 62.6%, as the accelerated power grid construction cycle boosted terminal cargo pick-up. The operating rate of aluminum extrusion slightly rose by 1.0 percentage points to 50.5%, with automotive and PV orders maintaining growth, while construction extrusions remained sluggish. The operating rate of aluminum foil rebounded by 0.9 percentage points to 69.3%, mainly driven by the restart of air-conditioner foil production lines and the recovery of decorative foil demand. The operating rate of secondary aluminum slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points to 53.0%, as the off-season and ongoing losses continued to exert pressure, and policy impacts forced producers to cut production. It is expected that the aluminum wire and cable, aluminum plate/sheet and strip sectors will continue their upward momentum in late August, while the approaching traditional peak season of "September-October peak season" may further boost demand for aluminum foil and aluminum extrusion.