【SMM Analysis】 Last week, the Aluminum Association (of America) released a white paper examining the flow of aluminium scrap of the United States, a sector that is starting to gain traction worldwide for its importance within the sectors and development goals of low carbon and circular sustainability goals, industrial competitiveness and strategic interests in national security. The white paper highlights several proposals made by the association, including the possible ban of UBC scrap exports from the USA totally.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: September Unwrought Aluminum Alloy Imports Down 13.2% YoY, Aluminum Scrap Imports Up 17.7%] In the short term, futures are consolidating, with the medium-term moving average system showing a bullish bias. However, prices remain within the consolidation range, and it is necessary to monitor the breakthrough at the resistance level of 20,400-20,420. If this level holds firmly, it may open upside room; if prices pull back below 20,350, be cautious of short-term adjustment risks.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Supply-Demand Tightening and Aluminum Ingot Destocking Expected to Keep Aluminum Prices Holding Up Well in the Short Term] On the night of October 20, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract opened at 20,900 yuan/mt, reaching a highest price of 20,935 yuan/mt and a lowest price of 20,830 yuan/mt, before finally closing at 20,920 yuan/mt, down 0.09%. The night session overall showed a trend of fluctuating upward, with prices rising from around 20,860 yuan/mt to near 20,920 yuan/mt. From a technical perspective, the night session's trading volume shrank, reflecting strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market; insufficient volume constrained the rebound momentum, and if the contraction continues, prices may retreat to test support levels. On the 60-minute MACD candlestick chart, the green bars are contracting but have not yet formed a golden cross, indicating an unclear short-term direction. Considering recent highs and lows (the monthly low around 20,600 and the high around 21,200), resistance is expected in the 21,280–21,480 range, while support lies in the 20,530–20,750 range.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Macro Tailwinds and Solid Fundamentals Support Aluminum Prices to Hold Up Well in the Short Term] During the night session on October 17, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract opened at 20,935 yuan/mt, reaching a highest price of 20,960 yuan/mt and a lowest price of 20,890 yuan/mt, before finally closing at 20,925 yuan/mt, down 0.2%. The night session overall showed a consolidating trend, fluctuating around 20,930 yuan/mt. From a technical perspective, the MA system maintained a bullish alignment (MA5: 20,928 > MA10: 20,903 > MA30: 20,818), with prices holding above the moving averages; the MACD indicator continued its golden cross (DIF: 63.3 > DEA: 58.6); however, trading volume was 51,011 lots, down 26,366 lots MoM. Considering recent highs and lows (monthly low around 20,600, high around 21,200), resistance is expected in the 21,280–21,480 range, with support in the 20,530–20,750 range.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Warrant and Inventory Both Increase, Tight Aluminum Scrap Supply Supports Costs] Last Friday, aluminum prices held steady compared to the previous day, with the SMM ADC12 price also unchanged at 21,050 yuan/mt, showing limited momentum for price adjustments. The current tight supply of aluminum scrap is unlikely to ease in the short term, providing solid cost support. Some enterprises, constrained by material shortages or losses due to cost-price inversions, have seen a decline in their operating rates. Meanwhile, demand resilience and low plant inventories are supporting prices, but caution is warranted against the suppression of upside room from high social inventory and warrant pressure. Attention should also be paid to the impact of policy implementation on the supply side. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to hold up well, with key focus on raw material circulation, the pace of demand recovery, and inventory changes.

[SMM Analysis]Boost in Automotive Consumption Drives Rebound in Operating Rate of Secondary Aluminum Producers in September, Multiple Factors to Constrain Performance in October

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Scrap Expected to Hold Up Well, Cast Aluminum Alloy Ingot Inventory Drops 1,600 mt Week-on-Week] On Thursday, aluminum prices continued their rebound trend. Secondary aluminum enterprises kept their quotations flat, adopting a wait-and-see stance. The SMM ADC12 price held steady at 21,050 yuan/mt. The tight supply of aluminum scrap, which is unlikely to ease in the short term, continues to provide solid cost support. Demand resilience and low plant inventory also underpin prices. However, caution is warranted against the dampening effect of high social inventory and warrant pressure on the upside room. Meanwhile, attention should be paid to the impact of policy implementation on the supply side. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to maintain a firm tone, with key focus on raw material circulation, the pace of demand recovery, and inventory changes.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Session Summary: Positive Macro Sentiment at Home and Abroad Supports Aluminum Prices to Hold Up Well] According to the night session data on October 16, technical analysis shows that the SHFE aluminum 2512 contract exhibited an upward trend during the night session, closing up 0.60% at 21,060 yuan/mt. The MA moving average system is arranged in a bullish pattern (MA5: 20,951 > MA10: 20,900 > MA30: 20,815), with prices holding above the moving averages. The MACD indicator continues its golden cross (DIF: 75.3 > DEA: 61.0), and the red momentum bar is expanding. However, the trading volume of 51,859 contracts was lower than the average volume, warranting attention to volume support. Considering recent highs and lows (monthly low: 20,600, high: around 21,200), resistance is expected in the 21,150–21,250 range, with support in the 20,850–20,950 range. The current bullish trend remains intact, but the divergence between price and volume calls for caution against a technical correction risk.

[SMM Analysis]Post-Holiday Aluminum Scrap Market Sees Volatile Recovery and Rebound, Short-Term Cost Support for Cast Aluminum Alloy Remains Solid.