SMM Aluminum Flash News: Macro Concerns, Steady Supply, High Profits, and Price Risks

Published: Aug 15, 2025 09:02

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[SMM Aluminum Flash News] On the macro front, although Thursday's US data did not shake the rationale for an interest rate cut in September, it did spark market concerns that tariffs could still fuel inflation in the coming months and alter the interest rate cut trajectory for the remainder of the year. From a fundamental perspective, in terms of supply, there were relatively small changes, with the operating production of electrolytic aluminum showing a steady and slight increase. On the cost side, the total weekly cost for the electrolytic aluminum industry was 16,738 yuan/mt, and the industry's high profits persisted. Demand side, as the September-October peak season approaches, downstream weekly operating rates showed signs of recovery this week. However, under the influence of the off-season, consumption from terminals to processed materials is unlikely to exceed expectations. Overall, the combination of macro tailwinds both domestically and overseas, along with potential risks in electrolytic aluminum supply, has kept aluminum prices holding up well. Nevertheless, under the pressure of inventory buildup during the consumption off-season, and after the positive sentiment is digested, the center of aluminum prices may face the risk of jumping initially and then pulling back, with the 21,000 yuan/mt threshold still under pressure.

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