The operating rate of secondary aluminum producers rose in July and may pull back in August [SMM analysis]

Published: Aug 13, 2025 15:00 (GMT+8)

Source: SMM

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[SMM Analysis]The operating rate of secondary aluminum producers rose against the trend in July, but may pull back in August due to weak demand

Survey data on the operating rate of secondary aluminum alloy enterprises by region in July 2025:

According to SMM survey statistics, the operating rate of the secondary aluminum industry in July 2025 rebounded by 0.7 percentage points MoM from June to 42.2%, with a YoY increase of 2.8%.

Orders for secondary aluminum in July performed better than expected. Firstly, orders from sectors such as NEVs and motorcycle parts were robust, supporting orders for some enterprises. Secondly, after the listing of cast aluminum alloy futures, futures and spot traders acquired large quantities of delivery brand or non-delivery brand ADC12, which to some extent hedged against the decline in downstream orders for enterprises and mitigated the fluctuations of traditional peak and off-seasons. Since August, market demand has weakened somewhat, with enterprises focusing mainly on fulfilling existing orders from traders, and new orders remaining limited. Currently, there are no obvious signs of improvement on the consumption side, and it is necessary to closely monitor whether the September-October peak season can drive the market to stabilize and recover after mid-August.

From the perspective of enterprises by scale, the operating rate in July showed a differentiated trend. Among them, large factories benefited from sufficient orders and the advantages of delivery brands, with their operating rates continuing to rise, becoming the main driving force for boosting the overall operating rate of the industry. However, small and medium-sized enterprises generally faced issues such as raw material shortages, losses on production, or order shrinkage, with some enterprises experiencing long-term production cuts or even shutdowns.

Entering August, there has been no significant improvement on the demand side, with the off-season atmosphere dominating the market. Additionally, terminal automakers in regions such as Southwest and South China are entering high-temperature holidays, which will further suppress procurement demand. In the absence of favorable support, it is expected that the industry's operating rate will be under pressure in August.

Operating rate

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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