Macro side, currently, US Fed officials have expressed unease about the labour market. If there are signs that tariffs are contributing to price increases, it may prompt the US Fed to hold off on any immediate action. The rise in the US dollar index is bearish for copper prices. Meanwhile, Trump stated on Monday that Ukraine and Russia must mutually cede territory to end the war, and his talks with Putin aim to gauge the temperature for a potential agreement, sparking market concerns.
Fundamentals side, supply side, it is expected that the arrivals of domestically produced goods this week will increase compared to last week, while the arrivals of imported goods remain tight. Moreover, the increase in domestically produced goods will surpass the decrease in imported goods, resulting in an overall upward trend in the supply side. On the consumption side, copper prices have once again risen above 79,000 yuan/mt, dampening downstream procurement sentiment. As of Monday, August 11, SMM copper inventories in major regions across China decreased by 400 mt from last Thursday to 131,600 mt on a WoW basis.
Price side, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is set to be released soon. Prior to this, there has been a mild re-pricing of hawkish expectations for US Fed policy, driving the US dollar higher. It is expected that copper prices will remain under pressure ahead of tod