This week, the ferrous metals series rebounded from a low position but then saw some pullback. In the first half of the week, the main driving force for the market rally was coking coal. The further advancement of coal capacity verification led to a rise in coking coal futures, driving an overall rebound in the ferrous metals series. Market sentiment reached a new high amid rumors of production restrictions during the military parade and crude steel output reduction. In the second half of the week, the rumors cooled down, coupled with poor performance in supply and demand data for finished steel products, futures began to pull back. In the spot market, trading was moderate in the first half of the week, but mostly driven by speculative demand for calendar spreads. The performance of end-users remained generally lackluster...

This week, the ferrous metals series first rose then fell, with some varieties reaching half-year highs before experiencing significant declines. On the news front, Tuesday saw market sentiment peak as expectations for the upcoming Politburo meeting combined with potential production cut expectations in September due to military parade supply constraints, driving stronger gains in finished products than raw materials. Later in the week, the Politburo meeting concluded without exceeding expectations regarding real estate or anti-"rat race" competition measures, prompting increased exits by bulls. Fundamentally, the third and fourth rounds of coke price increases materialized this week, while finished product inventories began accumulating. Spot market-wise, recent trading activity declined, with arbitrage demand still entering early in the week but transactions plummeting later...

President Trump has issued a new executive order imposing reciprocal tariffs on imports from key trading partners, with a 10% baseline duty taking effect seven days after the order for non-compliant nations. The order establishes a minimum 15% tariff on EU goods where current duties fall below that threshold, while maintaining previously announced 50% tariffs on Brazil starting August 6 and potentially increasing China tariffs from 30% to 54%. Goods already in transit will be exempt from new duties if entered by October 5, 2025, with energy commodities remaining duty-free. The order introduces strict anti-circumvention measures including 40% punitive tariffs on transshipped goods and requires biannual publication of circumvention-prone entities. The Commerce Department, DHS and USTR will lead implementation, monitoring the national emergency declared in April 2025 regarding trade deficits. The policy aims to pressure trading partners into fairer agreements while protecting U.S. industries, though it may lead to higher consumer prices. Countries finalizing trade deals with the U.S. may avoid the tariff increases.

According to SMM data, as of July 24, the average SMM price spread between cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel for this month was 382 yuan/mt, remaining stable MoM from the June average. Since Q2, the price spread between cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel has continued to narrow.

This week, the ferrous metals series continued the upward trend from the night session last Friday, all reaching highs in recent months. On the news front, at the beginning of the week, it was reported that "the General Office of the National Energy Administration issued a notice on organizing and conducting inspections of coal mine production to promote stable and orderly coal supply." On Friday, a 4.2 magnitude earthquake struck Linfen, Shanxi, causing repeated fluctuations in market sentiment in the coking coal market, with multiple trading limits being hit during the week, driving the ferrous metals series to rise strongly. The price trend of iron ore was slightly weaker than that of other varieties. On the fundamental side, the second and third rounds of coke price increases were implemented this week, and the fourth and fifth rounds were also being planned. Meanwhile, the inventory performance of finished steel products was moderate. In the spot market, the recent market transaction atmosphere has been good, but it has mainly been driven by calendar spread speculation demand, with end-use demand still primarily based on purchasing as needed...

This week, the ferrous metals series market followed a similar trend to that of previous weeks. The night session on Wednesday saw a strong upward rally, with finished steel breaking through previous resistance levels and continuing to fill the gap from early April. Prices experienced a correction at the beginning of the week. In the latter half of the week, market rumors emerged about production restrictions ranging from 30% to 50% in the coking industry in the Wuhai region. Additionally, Indonesia planned to impose export tariffs, and there was a second round of coke price increase proposals scheduled for next week. Coking coal and coke continued to lead the gains in the ferrous metals series market. Meanwhile, amid the off-season, the continuous inventory reduction of finished steel provided support for the market...

[SMM Steel Morning Meeting Summary: It is expected that the most-traded HRC futures contract will experience sideways movement in the short term] Yesterday, HRC futures and spot prices fluctuated rangebound, with the most-traded contract closing at 3,253, down 0.31%. In the spot market, domestic quotes were mostly stable with a few drops, and overall trading performance was average. In overseas markets, HRC export quotes dropped slightly during the day.