According to SMM statistics, regarding the inventory of aluminum billets in two domestic locations, the inventory of aluminum billet in Guangdong was 57,000 mt, and the inventory of aluminum billet in Wuxi was 36,500 mt, totaling 93,500 mt, a decrease of 500 mt compared to the previous period. Today, influenced by the further extension of China-US tariffs, SHFE aluminum prices recovered from yesterday's decline and continued to trade within a range. Although the downstream extrusion market remained in an off-season atmosphere, due to the reduction in arrivals in regions affected by production cuts at billet plants, the aluminum billet inventory maintained a range-bound movement without showing a clear trend. As aluminum prices remained relatively stable, today's market processing fees were basically flat compared to yesterday. The downstream maintained a cautious purchasing pace, focusing primarily on immediate needs, and the sentiment for spot trades was relatively subdued. As of August 12, 2025, the aluminum billet market in Foshan reported processing fees of 210/260 yuan/mt, unchanged; the processing fees in Wuxi were quoted at 150/300 yuan/mt, unchanged; and the processing fees in Nanchang were reported at 220/280 yuan/mt, unchanged. (Unit: yuan/mt)

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: ADC12 Prices Remain Steady, Short-Term Focus on Demand and Aluminum Scrap Supply] On Monday, aluminum prices continued to experience a slight correction, with the quoted prices in the secondary aluminum market remaining steady and cautious. The SMM ADC12 price stabilized at 20,250 yuan/mt. In August, the secondary aluminum market continued to be constrained by tight aluminum scrap supply, with enterprises facing sustained cost pressure, supporting ADC12 prices. However, consumption has not shown significant improvement, which will limit the upside potential for price increases. It is expected that secondary aluminum alloy prices will fluctuate rangebound at the beginning of the month. In the short term, close attention should be paid to the progress of end-use demand recovery and the improvement of aluminum scrap supply.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Aluminum Prices Under Pressure at Highs, Awaiting CPI Data Guidance] On the macro front, US Fed officials are increasingly uneasy about the labour market, indicating their openness to an interest rate cut as early as September. Cooling inflation may solidify bets on a rate cut next month, but signs that President Trump's tariffs are fueling price increases could prompt the Fed to hold off for now. In terms of supply, there have been relatively small changes, with production of electrolytic aluminum remaining stable with a slight increase. On the cost side, the total weekly cost for the electrolytic aluminum industry is 16,738 yuan/mt, showing minimal change, and the industry's high profits persist. Focusing on demand, under the influence of the off-season, consumption from terminals to processed materials remains weak. The growth rates of industries such as home appliances and PV, which had strong support in the early stage, have slowed down. Some aluminum terminal export orders have also declined, and the construction industry continues to experience a super-seasonal decline. Social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has surpassed the 550,000 mt mark. Although last week's uneven arrivals caused fluctuations in inventory data, the high aluminum prices amid the off-season may further damage consumption, and the trend of inventory buildup is expected to continue in the short term. Overall, macro tailwinds combined with potential risks in electrolytic aluminum supply have driven aluminum prices to rebound to highs. However, during the consumption off-season, the pressure of inventory buildup remains significant. After the positive sentiment is digested, the center of aluminum prices will pull back somewhat, still facing pressure at the 21,000 yuan/mt mark. Similarly, most processed material enterprises have a relatively high recognition of prices below 20,500 yuan/mt, and their just-in-time procurement capabilities have been somewhat validated at this level.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Social Inventory of Aluminum Ingots Continues to Build Up, Aluminum Prices Under Pressure amid Off-Season Atmosphere] On the macro side, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts have risen, and macro sentiment remains positive, providing a boost to base metals. The US has imposed a tariff hike on India, while India and Russia have signed a cooperation agreement to deepen cooperation in the aluminum sector, leading to a subtle rise in risk-averse sentiment among investors. In terms of fundamentals, there have been relatively small changes in supply, with the operating production of electrolytic aluminum showing a steady and slight increase. On the cost side, the total weekly cost for the electrolytic aluminum industry is 16,738 yuan/mt, with minimal changes, and the industry's high profits persist. Focusing on the key aspects, demand is currently weakening under the influence of the off-season, with consumption from terminals to processed materials remaining sluggish. The growth rates of industries that previously provided strong support, such as home appliances and PV, have slowed down. Some export orders for aluminum terminals have also declined, and the construction industry is still experiencing a super-seasonal decline. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has already surpassed the 550,000 mt threshold. Although last week's uneven arrivals caused fluctuations in inventory data, the high aluminum prices amid the off-season atmosphere may further damage consumption, and the trend of continued inventory buildup in the short term remains unchanged. Overall, the combination of positive macro factors and potential risks in electrolytic aluminum supply has driven aluminum prices to rebound to high levels. However, amid the off-season for consumption, the pressure from inventory buildup remains significant. After the positive sentiment is digested, the center of aluminum prices will pull back, and the 21,000 yuan/mt threshold will still be under pressure. Similarly, most processed material enterprises have a relatively high recognition of prices below 20,500 yuan/mt, and their just-in-time procurement capabilities have been validated to a certain extent at this price level.

A certain aluminum enterprise in Shandong has adjusted the benchmark tender price for prebaked anodes in August 2025, decreasing it by 10 yuan/mt MoM. Meanwhile, a large domestic prebaked anode sales company has raised its sales pricing, with a MoM increase of 34 yuan/mt. The price center of raw materials has generally shifted upwards during this period, and the cost support for prebaked anodes remains relatively strong. According to SMM data, as of August 6, the comprehensive cost of prebaked anodes in China has risen to 4,921 yuan/mt, an increase of 3.65% compared to July 7. If calculated based on a one-month production cycle, the profitability of the prebaked anode industry is slightly under pressure, with a theoretical profit decrease of approximately 125 yuan/mt MoM, and most prebaked anode enterprises have experienced a contraction in their profitability status. The current operation trend of the raw material market is good, providing certain support for prebaked anode prices. Especially for petroleum coke, its downstream demand side is generally moderate, with the carbon industry maintaining a just-in-time procurement rhythm, while the demand for petroleum coke in the anode material market also continues to exist. Based on a comprehensive assessment of multiple factors, there is an expectation for an upward shift in the price center of petroleum coke in August. Under this background, directly supported by the increase in raw material prices, the price trend of prebaked anodes is expected to stabilize and rise.

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: Social Inventory Buildup of Aluminum Alloy Slows Down Significantly, Costs Drive Spot Prices Higher Again] Aluminum scrap prices rose rapidly in line with aluminum prices during the week, with mounting cost-side pressure igniting market sentiment for price adjustments. Yesterday, the SMM ADC12 price increased by 100 yuan/mt to 20,250 yuan/mt. In August, the secondary aluminum market remained constrained by tight aluminum scrap supply, with enterprises facing sustained cost pressure, supporting the upward trend in ADC12 prices. However, weak end-use demand combined with high social inventory levels will limit the upside potential for price increases. It is expected that secondary aluminum alloy prices will primarily exhibit a narrow range of upward fluctuations at the beginning of the month. In the short term, close attention should be paid to the progress of end-use demand recovery and improvements in aluminum scrap supply.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Rising Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Cut, Aluminum Prices Remain Under Pressure Amid Off-Season Consumption] Summary: On the macro side, expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut have risen, and macro sentiment remains positive, providing a boost to base metals. The US has imposed a tariff hike on India, while India and Russia have signed a deepened cooperation agreement on aluminum, leading to a subtle increase in risk-averse sentiment among investors. In terms of fundamentals, there has been relatively small change in supply, with aluminum production remaining stable with a slight increase. On the cost side, the total weekly cost for the electrolytic aluminum industry is 16,738 yuan/mt, showing minimal change, and the industry's high profits persist. Focusing on demand, under the influence of the off-season, consumption from terminals to processed materials remains weak. The growth rates of industries such as home appliances and PV, which had strong support in the early stage, have slowed down. Some aluminum terminal export orders have also declined, and the construction industry is still experiencing a super-seasonal decline. Social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has exceeded the 550,000 mt threshold. Although there have been fluctuations in inventory data due to uneven arrivals during the week, the high aluminum prices amid the off-season may further damage consumption, and the trend of continued inventory buildup in the short term remains unchanged. Overall, the positive macro environment combined with potential risks in electrolytic aluminum supply has driven aluminum prices to rebound to high levels. However, amid the off-season consumption, the pressure of inventory buildup remains significant. After the positive sentiment is digested, the center of aluminum prices will pull back, and the 21,000 yuan/mt threshold will still be under pressure. Similarly, most processed material enterprises have a relatively high recognition of prices below 20,500 yuan/mt, and their just-in-time procurement capability has been validated to a certain extent at this price level.