Operating rates of copper pipe & tube producers further declined

The operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises in July was 68.94%

According to SMM data, the operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises in July was 68.94%, down 4.71 percentage points MoM and 3.72 percentage points YoY. The decline in copper pipe & tube operating rates in July was in line with expectations, as OEMs began to take holidays one after another, slowing down the speed of cargo pick-up. The operating rate of copper pipe & tube generally declined by 5-10%, while non-bathroom brass and other alloy pipes maintained stable operating rates. Orders for copper water pipes in the home improvement market also declined. Currently, channel dealers in the secondary market for copper pipes lack the motivation to stockpile. Export orders for large enterprises have been suppressed recently. According to customs data, copper pipe & tube exports in June declined by 14.81% MoM, and are expected to continue to decline in July.

The raw material inventory ratio of copper pipe & tube enterprises in July was 4.09%

The raw material inventory ratio of copper pipe & tube enterprises in July was 4.09%, up 0.10 percentage points MoM. Copper pipe & tube production in July declined by 6.39% MoM, and raw material inventory declined by 4.06% MoM.

The operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises in August is expected to be 64.20%

According to SMM data, the expected operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises in August 2025 is 64.20%, down 4.75 percentage points MoM and 1.23 percentage points YoY. In August, the export schedule of large air-conditioning enterprises declined compared to both the export schedule and actual export performance of the previous year, with comprehensive industry declines of 8.5% and 12.5% respectively. Only a few enterprises showed growth, mainly due to a low base in the previous year. Against the backdrop of the US imposing a 50% tariff on copper semis, domestic direct exports of copper pipes to the US will decline further.

According to SMM, although the US and Mexico are still negotiating the possibility of tariffs, currently, there are still hefty tariffs on copper pipes exported from Mexico to the US. Against the backdrop of undersupply of local copper pipes, copper tube & pipe processing fees in the US have risen significantly. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the US will relax tariffs on the import of relevant copper semis from Mexico to supplement local supply. It is worth noting that, in addition to air-conditioning pipes, China still exports industrial pipes and other pipe accessories to the US. Enterprises in this sector will also reduce orders to the US in the face of hefty tariffs.