In July, the operating rates of copper billet producers declined both YoY and MoM, with inventories continuing to shrink

According to SMM data, the composite operating rate of copper billet producers in July 2025 was 44.82%, down 1.33 percentage points MoM and 2.61 percentage points YoY. Specifically, the operating rate of large enterprises was 48.74%, showing relatively stable performance; the operating rate of medium-sized enterprises was 41.21%, at a moderate level; and the operating rate of small enterprises was 29.31%, the weakest performance. The industry as a whole was still in the adjustment phase of the off-season demand.

From the perspective of order situation, orders for copper billet producers in July were differentiated. Overall orders for large enterprises remained stable, and even increased during the stabilization phase of copper price declines. In contrast, the operating rates of small and medium-sized enterprises generally declined, mainly due to multiple factors: firstly, July itself was still in the traditional off-season demand period for the copper billet market, with low overall market demand activity; secondly, raw material supply was tight, making it more difficult for enterprises to procure; thirdly, orders were concentrated in large enterprises, further squeezing the survival space of small and medium-sized enterprises. In terms of inventory, SMM sample data showed that the days of raw material inventories were 5.7 days, down 0.52 days MoM, and the days of finished product inventories were 7.76 days, down 0.39 days MoM.
Looking ahead to August, as the off-season approaches its end, demand from some industries (such as new energy, power, etc.) is expected to continue to grow, and the order-taking situation of large enterprises is expected to improve. However, SMM predicts that small and medium-sized enterprises will still face difficulties in August: issues such as high raw material costs, financial constraints, and insufficient orders are unlikely to be alleviated in the short term, and the operating rate in August is expected to remain low. In terms of inventory, copper billet producers are currently continuously compressing their inventories, maintaining them only at necessary levels to avoid price fluctuation risks.

Additionally, the US has imposed a 50% tariff on imported copper processed materials, but copper billet exports to the US in January-June 2025 were only 14.95 mt, accounting for 0.54% of total exports, and the actual impact is expected to be limited. Overall, SMM predicts that the operating rate of copper billet producers in August will be 45.3%, with a slight increase of 0.5 percentage points MoM.