[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Social Inventory of Aluminum Ingots Continues to Build Up, Aluminum Prices Under Pressure amid Off-Season Atmosphere] On the macro side, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts have risen, and macro sentiment remains positive, providing a boost to base metals. The US has imposed a tariff hike on India, while India and Russia have signed a cooperation agreement to deepen cooperation in the aluminum sector, leading to a subtle rise in risk-averse sentiment among investors. In terms of fundamentals, there have been relatively small changes in supply, with the operating production of electrolytic aluminum showing a steady and slight increase. On the cost side, the total weekly cost for the electrolytic aluminum industry is 16,738 yuan/mt, with minimal changes, and the industry's high profits persist. Focusing on the key aspects, demand is currently weakening under the influence of the off-season, with consumption from terminals to processed materials remaining sluggish. The growth rates of industries that previously provided strong support, such as home appliances and PV, have slowed down. Some export orders for aluminum terminals have also declined, and the construction industry is still experiencing a super-seasonal decline. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has already surpassed the 550,000 mt threshold. Although last week's uneven arrivals caused fluctuations in inventory data, the high aluminum prices amid the off-season atmosphere may further damage consumption, and the trend of continued inventory buildup in the short term remains unchanged. Overall, the combination of positive macro factors and potential risks in electrolytic aluminum supply has driven aluminum prices to rebound to high levels. However, amid the off-season for consumption, the pressure from inventory buildup remains significant. After the positive sentiment is digested, the center of aluminum prices will pull back, and the 21,000 yuan/mt threshold will still be under pressure. Similarly, most processed material enterprises have a relatively high recognition of prices below 20,500 yuan/mt, and their just-in-time procurement capabilities have been validated to a certain extent at this price level.

A certain aluminum enterprise in Shandong has adjusted the benchmark tender price for prebaked anodes in August 2025, decreasing it by 10 yuan/mt MoM. Meanwhile, a large domestic prebaked anode sales company has raised its sales pricing, with a MoM increase of 34 yuan/mt. The price center of raw materials has generally shifted upwards during this period, and the cost support for prebaked anodes remains relatively strong. According to SMM data, as of August 6, the comprehensive cost of prebaked anodes in China has risen to 4,921 yuan/mt, an increase of 3.65% compared to July 7. If calculated based on a one-month production cycle, the profitability of the prebaked anode industry is slightly under pressure, with a theoretical profit decrease of approximately 125 yuan/mt MoM, and most prebaked anode enterprises have experienced a contraction in their profitability status. The current operation trend of the raw material market is good, providing certain support for prebaked anode prices. Especially for petroleum coke, its downstream demand side is generally moderate, with the carbon industry maintaining a just-in-time procurement rhythm, while the demand for petroleum coke in the anode material market also continues to exist. Based on a comprehensive assessment of multiple factors, there is an expectation for an upward shift in the price center of petroleum coke in August. Under this background, directly supported by the increase in raw material prices, the price trend of prebaked anodes is expected to stabilize and rise.

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: Social Inventory Buildup of Aluminum Alloy Slows Down Significantly, Costs Drive Spot Prices Higher Again] Aluminum scrap prices rose rapidly in line with aluminum prices during the week, with mounting cost-side pressure igniting market sentiment for price adjustments. Yesterday, the SMM ADC12 price increased by 100 yuan/mt to 20,250 yuan/mt. In August, the secondary aluminum market remained constrained by tight aluminum scrap supply, with enterprises facing sustained cost pressure, supporting the upward trend in ADC12 prices. However, weak end-use demand combined with high social inventory levels will limit the upside potential for price increases. It is expected that secondary aluminum alloy prices will primarily exhibit a narrow range of upward fluctuations at the beginning of the month. In the short term, close attention should be paid to the progress of end-use demand recovery and improvements in aluminum scrap supply.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Rising Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Cut, Aluminum Prices Remain Under Pressure Amid Off-Season Consumption] Summary: On the macro side, expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut have risen, and macro sentiment remains positive, providing a boost to base metals. The US has imposed a tariff hike on India, while India and Russia have signed a deepened cooperation agreement on aluminum, leading to a subtle increase in risk-averse sentiment among investors. In terms of fundamentals, there has been relatively small change in supply, with aluminum production remaining stable with a slight increase. On the cost side, the total weekly cost for the electrolytic aluminum industry is 16,738 yuan/mt, showing minimal change, and the industry's high profits persist. Focusing on demand, under the influence of the off-season, consumption from terminals to processed materials remains weak. The growth rates of industries such as home appliances and PV, which had strong support in the early stage, have slowed down. Some aluminum terminal export orders have also declined, and the construction industry is still experiencing a super-seasonal decline. Social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has exceeded the 550,000 mt threshold. Although there have been fluctuations in inventory data due to uneven arrivals during the week, the high aluminum prices amid the off-season may further damage consumption, and the trend of continued inventory buildup in the short term remains unchanged. Overall, the positive macro environment combined with potential risks in electrolytic aluminum supply has driven aluminum prices to rebound to high levels. However, amid the off-season consumption, the pressure of inventory buildup remains significant. After the positive sentiment is digested, the center of aluminum prices will pull back, and the 21,000 yuan/mt threshold will still be under pressure. Similarly, most processed material enterprises have a relatively high recognition of prices below 20,500 yuan/mt, and their just-in-time procurement capability has been validated to a certain extent at this price level.

[SMM Analysis]ADC12 aluminum alloy prices rose, supported by the shortage of aluminum scrap

[SMM Weekly Aluminum Price Review: Macro Conditions Improve, Coupled with Potential Supply Risks in Fundamentals, Aluminum Prices Rebound to Highs Again]

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Macro Trade Friction Risks Intensify, A00 Social Inventory Remains Stable During the Week] Summary: On the macro front, Trump's imposition of a 25% tariff (total tariff rate of 50%) on India has intensified trade friction risks, which will curb the transmission of global industrial chain demand and weaken expectations for aluminum semis exports. Expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts have heated up (with two potential cuts this year), putting pressure on the US dollar and providing bottom support for commodities. On the fundamental front, supply side, domestic operating aluminum capacity remains stable, the proportion of liquid aluminum has pulled back, and the increase in casting ingot volume, i.e., the increase in market-circulating supplies, combined with continuous inventory buildup in social inventory, has suppressed the upward movement of aluminum prices. Demand side, the off-season atmosphere persists downstream, with spot purchasing as needed, and spot premiums struggling to rise. The PV, NEV, and home appliance sectors are still in the off-season. Despite the decline in aluminum prices, there has been no significant improvement trend in orders on hand for processing plants. In the short term, spot premiums and discounts are in the doldrums, and it is expected to maintain a pressure-bearing operation pattern. However, with the heating up of macro easing expectations, after the end of the seasonal off-season and the transmission of policy implementation, aluminum prices still have rebound momentum. Whether subsequent prices can break through will depend on observing the inventory trend and consumption recovery signals during the transition from the off-season to the peak season in August.