According to data compiled by SMM from the General Administration of Customs, China's cumulative steel exports from January to August 2025 reached 86.737 million mt, up 18.73% YoY. Saudi Arabia saw the largest cumulative increase, up 1.5224 million mt YoY, a rise of 61.66%. Among all steel product categories exported to Saudi Arabia, HRC dominated, accounting for 23%, followed by medium-thickness plates at 18%, while coated products and steel billet also held significant shares at 18% and 15%, respectively.

This week, the ferrous metals series fluctuated downward. On Monday, five departments issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025–2026)", setting an average annual growth target for the steel industry's value-added at around 4% over the next two years, which was positive for market sentiment. However, demand for finished products was not well released, making it difficult for futures to rise. In the latter part of the week, six departments announced a strict ban on new capacity for cement clinker and flat glass, requiring that new or renovation projects must formulate capacity replacement plans. Expectations of anti-involution resurfaced, coupled with MoM improvement in finished product inventory data, leading to a retreat of bear funds and a slight rise in futures. However, by the weekend, both the US and the EU announced they are expected to impose new tariffs on China, causing futures to decline again. On the spot market side, suppressed by futures, pre-holiday procurement demand this week was not significant...

This week, the ferrous metals series initially rose before weakening and stabilizing in the doldrums. HRC, constrained by fundamental pressures, performed worse than other varieties. The key turning point this week was the US Fed's interest rate cut. In the first half of the week, before the rate cut was implemented, macro expectations remained, coupled with rumors of a halt in Xinjiang thermal coal production, leading to a relatively strong overall performance in the ferrous metals series. In the latter half of the week, the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with no surprises, prompting some capital to exit. From the fundamentals of finished products, rebar showed a short-term inventory turning point, while HRC inventory continued to accumulate. Under fundamental pressure, HRC's performance remained weak.

Malaysia's scrap metal industry has undergone a radical transformation, shifting from a period of unregulated "savage growth" to a new era of strict state control. This policy overhaul is driven by a desire to secure raw materials for domestic steel mills and enforce higher environmental and fiscal standards.

This week, the ferrous metals series showed a divergent trend, with ore prices initially strong then weakening, coking coal and coke prices fluctuating rangebound, the most-traded rebar contract moving in a volatile pattern, and the most-traded HRC contract performing in the doldrums. On the news front, early in the week, the General Administration of Customs released data showing that China's steel exports in August 2025 reached 9.51 million mt, down 326,000 mt MoM, a decrease of 3.3% MoM. From January to August, cumulative steel exports totaled 77.49 million mt, up 10.0% YoY, with cumulative exports still higher than the same period last year, indicating strong export resilience...

This week, the ferrous metals series exhibited a wave-like trend, with iron ore showing relative strength. The week marked the most intensive period of environmental protection-driven production restrictions for the 93rd military parade, leading to a pullback in hot metal production that weakened the rigid demand for coke. The reduced raw material support, coupled with strengthened transportation controls in some northern regions, caused a pause in demand, resulting in an overall weak performance for the ferrous metals series. Prices of multiple varieties dropped to their lowest levels in nearly one and a half months. In the latter half of the week, production resumptions followed the completion of maintenance in the north, triggering a rebound from low price levels. However, the upside room remained constrained by weak finished product data. On the spot market, end-use procurement demand in the north remained under restrictions this week, leading to rapid inventory accumulation. Meanwhile, some markets in south China saw a release of end-use demand...

This week, the ferrous metals series exhibited a "V"-shaped trend. On Monday, futures continued to consolidate at high levels amid rumors of a coal mine accident from the previous Friday and Shanghai's property market easing policies. However, some mine-related rumors were debunked, with limited impact on actual production, while the fundamentals of finished steel remained weak, leading to a mid-week pullback in futures from elevated levels. Approaching the weekend, market rumors suggested China would push for steel production cuts in 2025 and 2026, prompting bears to temporarily retreat, though upward pressure on the ferrous complex remained evident. On the spot market, during the transition between peak and off-seasons, end-use demand appeared yet to materialize......

Malaysia exported just 7,181 tonnes of stainless-steel scrap in 2024, with India (72%) and Taiwan (24%) taking nearly all. China bought only 111 tonnes (1.5%), showing how its strict GB/T 39733-2020 import rules keep Malaysian scrap out despite higher prices. Without investment in sorting and certification, Malaysia will stay dependent on India and Taiwan.

This week, the ferrous metals series saw a high-level correction. At the beginning of the week, the market was abuzz with news that blast furnaces in Tangshan would be subject to 40% production restrictions by capacity at the end of August, leading to a pullback in raw material prices. Although a decline in production is beneficial for finished products, the collapse of cost support pushed these products to their lowest levels in nearly a month. In the latter half of the week, rumors circulated about stricter enforcement of order inspections, and actions were already being taken at southern ports, resulting in a more pronounced drop in HRC compared to rebar, narrowing the spread between the two. In the spot market, when the spot-futures price spread narrowed, there was still speculative demand for long positions, but the hot and rainy weather suppressed the recovery of end-use demand...