This week, the ferrous metals series rebounded from a low position but then saw some pullback. In the first half of the week, the main driving force for the market rally was coking coal. The further advancement of coal capacity verification led to a rise in coking coal futures, driving an overall rebound in the ferrous metals series. Market sentiment reached a new high amid rumors of production restrictions during the military parade and crude steel output reduction. In the second half of the week, the rumors cooled down, coupled with poor performance in supply and demand data for finished steel products, futures began to pull back. In the spot market, trading was moderate in the first half of the week, but mostly driven by speculative demand for calendar spreads. The performance of end-users remained generally lackluster...

[SMM Daily Coke Market Brief] On the news front, mainstream coke producers have initiated a sixth round of price increases for coke, ranging from 50 to 55 yuan/mt. In terms of supply, coke producers' profits have improved recently, leading to increased production enthusiasm and a rise in coke supply. However, coke shipments have been smooth, and coke inventories at coke producers remain low. On the demand side, steel mills have seen improved deliveries recently, and with relatively good profits, they maintain a high level of enthusiasm for coke procurement. In summary, the increase in coke supply is limited, and cost support remains strong. In the short term, the coke market may hold up generally stable with a slight rise, and the market holds certain expectations for a sixth round of coke price increases.

According to the latest tracking by SMM, the planned production volume of HRC commodity materials for August from 39 mainstream steel mills producing HRC totaled 14.4211 million mt, up 70,500 mt from the actual production volume of HRC commodity materials in the previous month, representing a 0.5% increase. On a daily average basis, the planned production volume of HRC commodity materials for August was 465,200 mt/day.

[SMM Daily Briefing on Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, the profitability of coke enterprises has improved, and the supply of coke has increased. Currently, the shipment situation of coke enterprises is good, and their own coke inventory remains low. Demand side, the arrival situation of steel mills has improved, and their own coke inventory has increased slowly. However, the pig iron production of steel mill blast furnaces remains at a high level, creating a rigid demand for coke and maintaining the previous procurement pace. In summary, the arrival situation of steel mills has improved, and the supply-demand imbalance of coke has eased somewhat. However, the cost support remains strong, and the coke market may operate generally stable with slight rise in the short term.

[SMM Daily Briefing on Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, coke enterprises have seen some improvement in their profits, leading to an increase in production enthusiasm. Additionally, the shipment of coke from these enterprises has been smooth, and their own coke inventory continues to decline. Demand side, steel mills still maintain production enthusiasm, and some steel mills have low coke inventory, thus there is still a certain demand for restocking. In summary, steel mills are actively purchasing coke, and with the continued support of coke costs, there is still an expectation of a coke price hike in the short term.

SMM Steel News on August 5: According to SMM statistics, the estimated total resource shipments in mainstream markets this week were 280,500 mt, up 1.63% WoW from the shipping level last week. By market:

[SMM Daily Briefing on Coke and Coal] In terms of supply, coke enterprises have average profits and limited willingness to increase production, maintaining stable operations. Currently, coke enterprises are experiencing smooth shipments, and coke inventory continues to decline. Demand side, steel mills have moderate profit margins, and blast furnace operations remain at a high level, maintaining a rigid demand for coke. In summary, steel mills are actively purchasing coke, and with the ongoing support of coke costs, there is still an expectation for coke prices to increase in the short term. The expected production restrictions at steel mills due to the September military parade will have a relatively small impact on short-term coke prices.

[SMM Daily Coke Review] Mainstream steel mills in Shandong and Hebei accepted the fifth round of coke price increases of 50-55 yuan/mt. In terms of supply, coke enterprises have low profit margins and average production enthusiasm. Additionally, downstream buyers are actively purchasing, resulting in low inventory levels of coke at coke enterprises. In terms of demand, due to the impact of rainfall, transportation in some areas is restricted, and the arrival of coke at steel mills is not satisfactory. However, steel mills have shown good enthusiasm for coke procurement. In summary, the coke market fundamentals lean towards a tight balance, with strong cost support. In the short term, the coke market may hold up well or generally be stable with a slight rise.

This week, the ferrous metals series first rose then fell, with some varieties reaching half-year highs before experiencing significant declines. On the news front, Tuesday saw market sentiment peak as expectations for the upcoming Politburo meeting combined with potential production cut expectations in September due to military parade supply constraints, driving stronger gains in finished products than raw materials. Later in the week, the Politburo meeting concluded without exceeding expectations regarding real estate or anti-"rat race" competition measures, prompting increased exits by bulls. Fundamentally, the third and fourth rounds of coke price increases materialized this week, while finished product inventories began accumulating. Spot market-wise, recent trading activity declined, with arbitrage demand still entering early in the week but transactions plummeting later...