SMM Analysis On China Blister Copper Supply-Demand Dynamics In August

SMM August 5 News:

In July 2025, SMM reported blister copper RCs in south China at 700-900 yuan/mt, with an average price of 800 yuan/mt, unchanged MoM. In north China, blister copper RCs were quoted at 650-850 yuan/mt, with an average price of 750 yuan/mt, also unchanged MoM. Import blister copper RCs CIF China were quoted at 90-100 US dollars/mt, with an average price of 95 US dollars/mt, unchanged MoM.

Looking back at July, the tight supply-demand situation in the market kept blister copper RCs at a low level. From the supply side, anode copper imports remained low. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 68,500 mt of anode copper in June 2025, with cumulative imports of 382,700 mt from January to June, a YoY decrease of 17.56%. Affected by factors such as weakening import price ratios in May-June, maintenance periods at anode copper smelters in Zambia, and the delayed start-up of the Kamoa copper smelting project, anode copper imports in China in July were expected to remain low. Domestically, copper prices jumped initially and then pulled back in July, and import volumes of copper scrap continued to decline due to tariff impacts. Overall, the supply of recycled copper raw materials was not abundant, and there was no significant increase in domestic anode copper supply. On the demand side, after the mid-year settlement period in June, smelters' restocking demand increased.

On August 1, SMM reported weekly blister copper RCs in south China at 800-1,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 900 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt MoM. Weekly blister copper RCs in north China were quoted at 650-850 yuan/mt, with an average price of 750 yuan/mt, unchanged MoM. Weekly import blister copper RCs CIF China were quoted at 90-100 US dollars/mt, with an average price of 95 US dollars/mt, unchanged MoM. Anode plate RCs in China were quoted at 500-600 yuan/mt, with an average price of 550 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt MoM.

However, SMM believes that with tight supplies of both copper concentrates and recycled copper raw materials, the supply outlook for blister copper and anode plates in August is not optimistic, which will contradict the trend of blister copper and anode plate RCs.

SMM analyzed that the anode copper supply is expected to continue to decline mainly due to the following reasons: 1. Continuous shortage of copper concentrate raw materials, and maintenance periods at ore-derived blister copper suppliers in north China in August, leading to a decrease in domestic ore-derived blister copper supply. 2. Anode copper imports in August are expected to remain limited, with no expected increase in overseas production. 3. Copper scrap imports are expected to decrease, coupled with a pullback in copper price centers, leading to a decrease in the supply of recycled copper raw materials. Additionally, the current significantly better price of secondary copper rod compared to anode plates will lead to some capacity shifting towards secondary copper rod, reducing the production of copper anode made from scrap. 4. Policies such as "reverse invoicing" continue to push, which will increase the difficulty for enterprises to procure recycled copper raw materials in the short term.

Demand side, the overall demand for copper anode from domestic smelters remained high to ensure the production of copper cathode. In July, China's copper cathode production, as reported by SMM, was 1.1743 million mt, up 14.21% YoY. It is expected that China's copper cathode production in August will be 1.1683 million mt, up 15.27% YoY. Additionally, domestic smelters will enter a concentrated maintenance period in September and October, and enterprises will stockpile copper anode to mitigate the impact of maintenance on copper cathode production.

Blister copper RCs rebounded slightly in August, primarily due to the relatively optimistic inventory levels of some major purchasers. Against the backdrop of long-term low processing fees this year, these purchasers raised the processing fees for this month, boosting the overall market processing fee level. SMM expects that the actual blister copper market will still remain tight.