[SMM Tin Midday Review: Tin Market in Fluctuating Game: Price Resilience Amid Tight Balance in Ore Supply and Intertwined Macro Bullish and Bearish Factors] At midday on August 5, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) closed at 267,180 yuan/mt, rising slightly by 1,030 yuan from the night session of the previous day, with a gain of 0.39%. The intraday price fluctuated rangebound around the 266,000 yuan/mt level, as bulls and bears cautiously engaged in a game amid the contradiction between the expected production resumption in Myanmar and weak demand. Meanwhile, the LME tin 3-month contract was temporarily quoted at around $33,390/mt, closing down 0.27% overnight to $33,125/mt, reflecting a rise in wait-and-see sentiment in overseas markets.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Interest Rate Cut Expectations Support vs. Inventory Buildup Pressure - Tin Prices Hover at Highs] The most-traded SHFE tin contract (2509) closed at 265,390 yuan/mt, up approximately 0.43% from the previous day's settlement price, with the intraday fluctuation range narrowing to 264,980-267,140 yuan/mt. The macro front dominated short-term sentiment, as the US July non-farm payrolls data came in unexpectedly weak (with only 73,000 new jobs added, far below the expected 110,000). The combined data for the previous two months was revised downward by 258,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The market's expectation for a US Fed interest rate cut in September surged to 89%, causing the US dollar index to drop sharply and pushing up dollar-denominated non-ferrous metals in general. On the geopolitical front, the Trump administration's move to raise tariffs on multiple countries to 35% triggered trade risk-aversion sentiment, with some funds flowing into industrial metals. However, tin prices were constrained by the supply-demand imbalance in the industry, with gains weaker than those of safe-haven assets like gold.

This week saw price increases for salt products like cobalt sulfate and lithium carbonate, although lithium carbonate prices declined after prior gains, resulting in overall oscillating movements. Coefficients for nickel and cobalt in ternary (NCM/NCA) and lithium cobalt oxide (LCO) black mass remained largely flat, with the lithium coefficient experiencing a slight dip following the drop in lithium carbonate prices

Overall data analysis indicates stable underlying demand support in the energy storage sector by the end of July, bolstered by mid-year factors and various policies both domestically and internationally. Rising lithium carbonate prices have driven an increase in battery cell prices. Meanwhile, the surge in automotive sales stimulated by auto shows earlier in July gradually subsided, with the new energy vehicle market penetration rate stabilizing. Currently, terminal consumer demand lacks momentum, although some incremental growth is expected. Similar to the energy storage sector, rising prices for cathode materials driven by higher lithium carbonate costs have been passed on to power battery cells, resulting in a slight price increase. In terms of market transactions, activity remained subdued by the end of July. Some second-life battery manufacturers maintained minimal inventory, adhering to a procurement strategy based on immediate needs. Looking ahead to August, demand in both the power and energy storage markets has potential for further decline.

This week, the ferrous metals series first rose then fell, with some varieties reaching half-year highs before experiencing significant declines. On the news front, Tuesday saw market sentiment peak as expectations for the upcoming Politburo meeting combined with potential production cut expectations in September due to military parade supply constraints, driving stronger gains in finished products than raw materials. Later in the week, the Politburo meeting concluded without exceeding expectations regarding real estate or anti-"rat race" competition measures, prompting increased exits by bulls. Fundamentally, the third and fourth rounds of coke price increases materialized this week, while finished product inventories began accumulating. Spot market-wise, recent trading activity declined, with arbitrage demand still entering early in the week but transactions plummeting later...

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Mine Shortage and Off-Season Clash with Macro Headwinds, SHFE Tin Midday Session Under Pressure] As of the noon close on August 1, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) closed at 264,940 yuan/mt, down 0.46% from the previous day's settlement price. The intraday low reached 262,910 yuan/mt, continuing the doldrums from the night session. The LME tin 3-month contract also moved lower, closing at $32,800/mt, hitting a new low in nearly a month.

[SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary: US Fed's Hawkish Remarks Weigh on Non-Ferrous Metals, Tin Prices Continue to Stay in the Doldrums] On July 31, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2509 contract fluctuated downward. At the close of trading at 15:00, it settled at 265,290 yuan/mt, down 2,450 yuan (a decline of 0.92%) from the previous trading day. The futures market fluctuated between 264,670 and 267,950 yuan/mt, with the settlement price fixed at 266,160 yuan/mt. Trading volume reached 61,840 lots, while open interest decreased by 765 lots to 27,818 lots, indicating that some bulls exited the market to hedge risks. LME tin's decline widened to 1.68%, closing at $32,850/mt, with an intraday high of $33,450/mt.