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Previously, SMM estimated that China’s copper concentrate imports in 2025 would reach 29.444 million dmt, a year-on-year increase of 4.53%, or 1.277 million dmt. However, due to the evolving U.S. tariff dispute and disruptions from Indonesia’s nonferrous metals export policies, SMM has revised its forecast downward for China’s copper concentrate imports this year.
With the escalation of the U.S.-China tariff war, China’s copper concentrate imports from the U.S. dropped to zero in June 2025. From January to May 2025, China imported 125,000 dmt of copper concentrate from the U.S. From 2015 to 2024—excluding the 2018-2020 period when Trump first triggered the trade war—China’s average annual copper concentrate imports from the U.S. were about 560,000 dmt. This means that due to the tariff conflict, China’s copper concentrate imports this year may decrease by 435,000 dmt.
Indonesia’s metal export ban policy risks further tightening. In mid-March 2025, the Indonesian government approved Freeport’s export quota of 1.27 million dmt of copper concentrate. As a result, after a brief interruption in February and March 2025, copper concentrate trade between China and Indonesia resumed. However, SMM learned this week that traders with Grasberg positions were informed of the Indonesian government’s inclination to cut the 1.27 million dmt export quota. Additionally, some traders approached Chinese smelters to request assistance in procuring nearby copper concentrate shipments for late July/early August loading. Spot TC offers have surged to a high of -$30/ton. Therefore, it is reasonable to speculate that, with the ramp-up of Indonesia’s two newly operational smelters—PT Amman and Manyar—the Indonesian government may reduce Freeport’s copper concentrate export quota to secure domestic raw material supply. Freeport might consequently increase sales in the near term. From 2017 to 2024, China’s average annual copper concentrate imports from Indonesia were about 436,000 dmt. By 2025, China had imported 270,000 dmt from Indonesia. If Indonesia indeed tightens its nonferrous metals export ban ahead of schedule, China’s copper concentrate imports from Indonesia this year may decrease by 166,000 dmt.
In summary, SMM has revised its 2025 forecast for China’s copper concentrate imports from 29.444 million dmt down to 28.843 million dmt.
