Prices of raw and auxiliary materials fluctuate rangebound, and the production cost of alumina in August is expected to be largely stable

SMM August 1 News:

In July, the weighted average full cost of alumina nationwide was approximately 2,957 yuan/mt, down 14 yuan/mt MoM; the weighted average cash cost was approximately 2,787 yuan/mt.

Cost breakdown:

For bauxite, the bulk import bauxite prices fluctuated around $73-74/mt in July. The prices of low-temperature Australian bauxite dropped back slightly, while China’s domestic bauxite prices remained largely stable, resulting in relatively stable bauxite costs for alumina production. Entering August, domestic bauxite prices in northern China are expected to remain stable, while those in southern China show signs of a slight increase. For imported bauxite, the shipment volume of Guinean bauxite declined during the rainy season, and sellers' intention to refuse to budge on prices strengthened gradually. However, buyers' acceptance of high prices was generally low. The prices of imported bauxite in August are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend.

For caustic soda, long-term contract prices in Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi fell in July, while caustic soda prices in Shandong showed an upward trend. However, the monthly average price in Shandong decreased slightly MoM, resulting in a slight reduction in caustic soda costs. Entering August, long-term contract prices for caustic soda in Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi all rebounded, and the caustic soda costs for alumina production in August are expected to rebound slightly.

Overall, the weighted average full cost of alumina nationwide in August is currently expected to remain largely stable, operating around 2,900-3,000 yuan/mt.