Base Metal Production Overview, July 2025
Copper Cathode
SMM China's copper cathode production in July increased significantly by 39,400 mt MoM, up 3.47%, and was up 14.21% YoY. Cumulative production from January to July increased by 820,800 mt YoY, up 11.82%.
The significant increase in copper cathode production in July was mainly due to the following reasons: 1) The capacity utilization rate of newly commissioned smelters rose rapidly, with production exceeding expectations; 2) Smelters whose production had previously declined due to environmental protection inspections also resumed normal production in July; 3) Sulphuric acid prices remained high across regions in July, effectively offsetting smelting losses. However, there were also negative aspects. Affected by increasingly tight supply of cold materials, some smelters began to implement slight production cuts, a situation we expect to continue into August. Although copper concentrate TCs recently saw a slight increase, with the imported copper concentrate index (weekly) rising to -$42.63/mt by July 25, up $2.18/mt from June 27; port inventories of copper concentrate have fallen to a new low for the year, with our statistics showing current port inventories at only 560,900 mt, which will be unfavorable for smelters to continue expanding production in the later period.
In summary, the operating rate for the sampled copper cathode industry in July was 88.19%, up 2.43 percentage points MoM. Specifically, the operating rate for large smelters was 91.12%, up 3.6 percentage points MoM; for medium-sized smelters it was 85.62%, up 0.75 percentage points MoM; and for small smelters it was 67.28%, down 2.09 percentage points MoM. The operating rate for smelters using copper concentrate was 92.3%, up 3.2 percentage points MoM; for smelters not using copper concentrate (using copper scrap or anode plates) it was 68.5%, down 0.6 percentage points MoM.
Entering August, according to our statistics, only one smelter has a maintenance plan, and the resulting production decrease is relatively small; however, due to tight supply of copper concentrate and cold materials, the number of smelters cutting production for these reasons increased in August compared to July. Nevertheless, stimulated by the end of maintenance and the continued production ramp-up at a newly commissioned smelter in east China, we believe national copper cathode production in August will only see a slight decrease.
Based on production schedules from various companies, SMM expects domestic copper cathode production in August to decrease by 6,000 mt MoM, down 0.51%, but increase by 154,800 mt YoY, up 15.27%. Cumulative production from January to August increased by 975,600 mt YoY, up 12.26%. The operating rate for the sampled copper cathode industry in August is expected to be 87.81%, down 0.38 percentage points MoM. Specifically, the operating rate for large smelters is expected to be 90.71%, down 0.41 percentage points MoM; for medium-sized smelters 85.49%, down 0.13 percentage points MoM; and for small smelters 66.33%, down 0.94 percentage points MoM. The operating rate for smelters using copper concentrate is expected to be 92%, down 0.3 percentage points MoM; for smelters not using copper concentrate (using copper scrap or anode plates) it is expected to be 67.5%, down 1 percentage point MoM. Finally, we expect production in September to continue declining, as the number of smelters with maintenance plans increases to five, involving a capacity of 900,000 mt.
Aluminum
According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum production in July 2025 (31 days) increased by 1.05% YoY and 3.11% MoM. Domestic operating aluminum capacity increased slightly MoM, mainly because the second-phase replacement project in Shandong-Yunnan began pot start-up. Due to the strong off-season atmosphere in end-use sectors, production cuts for alloy products were evident across regions, leading to a noticeable pullback in the proportion of liquid aluminum at domestic aluminum smelters in July. The industry's proportion of liquid aluminum fell by 2.06 percentage points MoM to 73.77%. Based on SMM's liquid aluminum proportion data, domestic aluminum casting ingot volume in July decreased by 9.34% YoY but increased by 11.89% MoM to around 976,300 mt.
Capacity changes: By the end of July, SMM statistics showed domestic existing aluminum capacity was approximately 45.69 million mt (SMM made revisions at the end of April based on capacity replacement situations and old plant demolitions, eliminating some double-counted capacity), and domestic operating aluminum capacity was approximately 43.9 million mt. Due to the commissioning of replacement capacity, the industry's operating rate increased slightly MoM. Additionally, a small batch of technologically transformed capacity in Chongqing resumed production earlier.
Production forecast: Entering August 2025, domestic operating aluminum capacity remained high, with the second batch of replacement projects in Yunnan commencing production and achieving output, leading to a rebound in the industry's operating rate. Regarding the proportion of liquid aluminum, currently only a few enterprises indicated they will continue to increase casting ingot volume in August, mainly due to weak end-use demand and lower processing fees for alloyed products. Related enterprises hold pessimistic expectations for August demand and anticipate further production cuts, forcing aluminum smelters to cast more ingots. The proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to remain low with limited downside room. Subsequent attention is still needed on changes in end-use demand and the trend of the liquid aluminum proportion in aluminum smelters.
Alumina
According to SMM data, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production in July 2025 (31 days) increased by 5.40% MoM and 6.65% YoY. By the end of July, China's existing metallurgical-grade alumina capacity was about 110.32 million mt, with actual operating capacity up 2.00% MoM, resulting in an operating rate of 81.6%.
Boosted by macro policy news such as "anti-involution" and "capacity reduction," alumina futures strengthened. During the month, the most-traded contract rose to a high of 3,577 yuan/mt, opening the arbitrage window between futures and spot markets. Spot traders actively inquired and purchased, tightening spot supply. Holders refused to budge on prices and were reluctant to sell, causing spot alumina prices to follow the rise. Alumina refinery profitability improved again during the month. Apart from individual routine maintenance, no news of production cuts or maintenance was heard, and operating capacity increased by 1.77 million mt MoM.
By region:
In July, alumina capacity in south China saw both increases and decreases. Individual alumina refineries underwent routine maintenance, but the impact on alumina production was relatively small. Additionally, an individual refinery that started reducing operating capacity in June did not resume in July, leading to a slight production decrease. Otherwise, with firm alumina prices and moderate profitability, operating capacity at some refineries increased. Overall, operating capacity in south China decreased by 20,000 mt MoM.
In July, stimulated by profitability, operating alumina capacity in north China grew significantly, with an absolute increase of 1.78 million mt MoM.
Next month forecast: Entering August, with spot alumina prices currently fluctuating at highs and refinery profitability moderate, the intention for production cuts or maintenance is not strong. Only a few enterprises are understood to be planning routine maintenance, with limited impact on production. National metallurgical-grade alumina operating capacity in August is expected to increase slightly, to around 90.56 million mt/year.
Overseas Aluminum
According to SMM statistics, total overseas aluminum production in July 2025 increased by 2.7% YoY; the average monthly operating rate was 88.5%, down 0.8% MoM, but still up slightly by 0.2% YoY.
This month, Alcoa and its energy partner Ignis announced that the San Ciprián smelter in Spain has begun a phased restart following a large-scale power outage in April, aiming to restore its nameplate capacity of 228,000 mt by mid-2026. Due to delays in the restart schedule, Alcoa expects the smelter to cause an EBITDA loss of $90–110 million in 2025.
SMM also learned that the Alumar smelter in Brazil has increased its capacity utilization rate to 92% (approx. 411,000 mt/year) after a three-year phased restart and is now pushing for full production. In Africa, South32 stated that it has not yet reached an agreement with energy supplier HCB on a power contract beyond 2026, posing a partial shutdown risk for the Mozal smelter with a capacity of 580,000 mt/year; negotiations are ongoing. If no viable alternative is found, South32 does not rule out reducing its stake in Mozal.
Power issues also trouble Rio Tinto's Tomago smelter in Australia. The smelter is negotiating with the Australian federal and New South Wales state governments regarding power contracts for 2026–2029 and federal production tax credits, but no agreement has been reached yet. Tomago, located about 125 km north of Sydney, consumes about 10% of NSW's electricity and produces 590,000 mt of aluminum annually; shareholders besides Rio Tinto include CSR and Hydro Aluminum.
In Asia, BALCO's aluminum capacity expansion line in India is expected to have started contributing volume in July after completing commissioning.
Overall, the overseas aluminum supply side remained generally stable in July, but medium and long-term prospects for some smelters remain uncertain. Looking ahead to August, with BALCO continuing to ramp up production, overseas aluminum production is expected to increase by about 3% YoY, and the operating rate is expected to rebound to 88.8%.
Overseas Metallurgical-Grade Alumina
According to SMM statistics, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production in July 2025 increased by 7.1% YoY; the average operating rate for overseas alumina enterprises rose to 82.4%, up 0.5% MoM and up 3.5% YoY.
The month's increase mainly came from Indonesia: Nanshan Group's PT Bintan Indonesia Alumina Phase III (1 million mt/year) began feeding in June, produced its first batch of alumina in July, and is expected to reach full capacity by year-end, with Phase IV construction to start immediately afterward. Meanwhile, India's Vedanta Lanjigarh alumina refinery's new 1.5 million mt/year expansion capacity is fully operational, with Q2 2025 production reaching 587,000 mt, up 9% QoQ. MIND ID also raised the operating load of the SGAR alumina project from 80% to 90%.
Additionally, Rio Tinto's Yarwun alumina refinery in Australia underwent maintenance since Q2, resulting in a 14.6% QoQ drop in production, with the impact expected to last until the end of Q3.
Looking ahead to August, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production is expected to increase by 7.2% YoY, supported by continued volume growth from Nanshan Phase III and Lanjigarh. Due to the expanded base of new capacity, the average operating rate is projected to drop back slightly to 81.1%.
Primary Lead
In July 2025, China's primary lead production declined instead of rising, down 1.49% MoM but up 5.43% YoY. Cumulative primary lead production from January to July increased by 9.05% YoY.
Reportedly, an unexpected maintenance occurred at a primary lead smelter in central China in July, and due to the large scale of the enterprise, it dragged down the month's primary lead production below expectations, resulting in a MoM decrease. The main reasons are: on one hand, the lead concentrate supply issue is prominent, with the TC declining for two consecutive months. The latest SMM monthly TC for imported pb60 ore was reported at -70~(-50) $/dmt, down for two months, with market transactions even reaching -150~(-100) $/dmt. On the other hand, in mid-to-late July, the price center of lead shifted downward, reducing production enthusiasm among primary lead smelters. Some enterprises, facing tight raw material supply, chose to proactively cut production or slow down the recovery progress after maintenance, leading to a MoM negative growth in final production for the month.
Looking ahead to August, primary lead smelters are expected to gradually resume production after completing maintenance, including medium-to-large enterprises in central, south-west, east, and north China. Meanwhile, new capacity at a large enterprise in central China is about to commence operation, potentially bringing additional volume. Even though smelters in north and north-east China will undergo routine maintenance, this is not expected to change the upward trend in primary lead production in August. Additionally, as enterprises resume production or start new operations, the raw material supply gap may widen again, compounded by the weakening lead price at the end of July, which dampens production enthusiasm at some enterprises. SMM conservatively estimates that primary lead production in August will increase by approximately 4.5% MoM.
Secondary Lead
Secondary lead production in July 2025 increased as expected, up 10.93% MoM and 3.13% YoY; secondary refined lead production rose 13.96% MoM and increased 1.28% YoY.
Lead prices rose first then fell in July. At the beginning of the month, the most-traded SHFE lead 2509 contract climbed to 17,340 yuan/mt, while scrap battery prices saw limited gains, improving production enthusiasm among secondary lead smelters. Large secondary lead smelter A in north China, whose capacity was previously idle due to multiple factors, resumed production in early July; large secondary lead smelter B in north China restarted in late July after maintenance; small-to-medium-sized smelter C in north China, which resumed production in late June, operated stably in July. Medium-to-large secondary lead smelter A in east China resumed production in late July after maintenance shutdown. These enterprises contributed significantly to the secondary lead output in July.
At the end of July, the most-traded SHFE lead contract fell below the 16,800 yuan/mt level, dampening production enthusiasm at some smelters and even weakening expectations for improved lead consumption in August. A large secondary lead smelter in north-west China plans to halt production soon due to multiple factors including market downturn, raw material shortages, and water usage restrictions, which will be the main reduction in August. Meanwhile, enterprises that resumed production in July in east and north China are expected to operate stably in August. New capacity in south-west China, whose commissioning was delayed in June due to equipment issues, passed the equipment acceptance as scheduled at the end of July and is now in normal operation; its contribution to lead output will mainly be reflected in August. Overall, secondary lead production in August is likely to maintain an upward trend.
Refined Zinc
China's SMM refined zinc production in July 2025 increased 3% MoM and about 23% YoY, with the cumulative production from January to July up over 4% YoY, exceeding expectations. Domestic zinc alloy production in July also increased MoM. In July, domestic smelters raised output. Apart from routine maintenance in Shaanxi, Hunan, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu, production resumptions after maintenance were the main theme in Yunnan, Henan, Shaanxi, Hunan, Guangxi, and Qinghai. Additionally, maintenance at some smelters in Inner Mongolia was delayed, and new capacity in Henan and Yunnan continued to release, leading to a significant overall production increase.
SMM expects China's refined zinc production in August 2025 to increase nearly 3% MoM and over 27% YoY, with cumulative production from January to August projected to rise more than 7% YoY. In August, apart from new maintenance at some smelters in Hunan, output at other smelters is expected to be maintained or increased further, with production resumptions after maintenance being the main activity in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Qinghai, etc., and new capacity continuing to release in Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei, Henan, etc., potentially pushing overall production to a new high.
Refined Tin
According to SMM data based on market communication, China's refined tin production in July 2025 rebounded by 15.42% MoM, while it only increased 0.09% YoY. This production recovery was mainly influenced by multiple factors, including production resumptions at some enterprises and the clearing of intermediate products. A detailed regional analysis is as follows:
According to General Administration of Customs data, China's tin ore imports in physical terms reached 11,911 mt in June 2025, a slight decrease MoM. This reduction was due to declines in imports from African and Oceanian countries: imports from Nigeria, Bolivia, Australia, and other countries fell significantly compared to May, but the overall import volume remained relatively stable. The long-term gap caused by the mining ban in Myanmar has not yet been fully filled. Although mining permits in Myanmar's Wa region were recently approved, the recovery of tin ore imports from Myanmar will still take considerable time, affected by the rainy season and preparatory work for production resumptions.
Yunnan region: Raw material shortages remain severe. Smelter raw material inventories are generally below 30 days, competition for tin ore procurement is intense, processing costs for low-grade ore are high, and coupled with rising power costs, enterprise production willingness has declined. Some enterprises prepared for maintenance shutdowns and cleared intermediate products from various smelting stages, leading to a slight increase in production for the month.
Jiangxi region:
Scrap supply chain disruption. The waste tin recycling system is under pressure, secondary material circulation in the market decreased by over 30%, and undersupply of crude tin directly hindered growth in refined production. Some secondary tin enterprises completed maintenance and are gradually resuming production, leading to an overall production rebound this month.
Other regions:
Dual raw material shortage. Supply of both tin concentrates and waste tin is weak, operating rates have long been below 70% of planned capacity, and planned maintenance at some enterprises further suppressed production.
Based on SMM estimates, refined tin production in August is expected to decrease 2.51% MoM. Driving factors: Some smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi are expected to undergo maintenance shutdowns.
Refined Nickel
In July 2025, SMM refined nickel production increased 3% MoM and 14% YoY, with cumulative growth up 27% YoY; the operating rate for domestic refined nickel enterprises was 61%. Top-tier enterprises maintained stable production pace in July, while output rose at a few individual smelters, driving a slight overall increase in refined nickel production. Price-wise, the average spot price for electrolytic nickel in July was 122,237 yuan/mt, up 680 yuan/mt MoM from June, primarily driven by domestic "anti-involution" macro sentiment, with spot prices following slightly higher. The average premium/discount for Jinchuan nickel in July was 2,100 yuan/mt, down 500 yuan/mt MoM, while premiums/discounts for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel remained relatively stable in the range of -100-300 yuan/mt. Spot trading remained sluggish throughout July, with overall trading volume down 10%-20% MoM from June, primarily due to the off-season, where downstream procurement only met essential demand. Additionally, nickel prices experienced sharp fluctuations driven by macro sentiment, leading many downstream players to adopt a wait-and-see approach.
Refined nickel production in August is expected to increase by 1% MoM, as smelters maintain stable production plans, while new capacity additions remain pending.
NPI
In July 2025, China's NPI production in physical terms rose by 2.11% MoM, while metal content fell by 8.10% MoM. Although physical volume increased, metal content declined. During July, Philippine nickel ore prices dropped somewhat, and NPI prices edged up as macro sentiment supported a recovery in stainless steel finished product prices. However, despite a reduction in losses, domestic smelters remained in a loss-making position. Amid persistent losses, most high-grade NPI smelters continued to operate at low rates, resulting in a 7.87% MoM decline in domestic high-grade NPI metal content. On the other hand, downstream stainless steel production increased in July, driven by a recovery in 200-series stainless steel output, leading to MoM growth in both physical volume and metal content of domestic low-grade NPI. Meanwhile, the average grade of NPI also fell by 0.4 percentage points MoM. In summary, while domestic NPI physical volume increased MoM in July, metal content continued to decline.
Looking ahead, with the approach of the September-October peak season and increased production by downstream stainless steel enterprises, both physical volume and metal content of domestic NPI are expected to stabilize and rebound slightly. SMM forecasts China's NPI production in physical terms to increase by 1.73% MoM and metal content to rise by 1.09% MoM in August 2025. Additionally, with smelters maintaining low operating rates and consumption showing some recovery, SMM expects the price center of high-grade NPI to continue rising in August.
Indonesian NPI
In July 2025, Indonesian NPI physical volume decreased by approximately 0.07% MoM, while metal content fell by about 1.7% MoM. Entering July, the loss-making situation at Indonesian smelters showed no significant improvement. Previously idled production lines had not resumed, and some Indonesian smelters continued to operate at low rates. Under pressure from declining profits and grades, both physical volume and metal content of Indonesian NPI declined in July.
For August 2025, Indonesian NPI physical volume is projected to increase by 0.60% MoM, and metal content to rise by 0.66% MoM. With the approaching peak consumption season and a gradual improvement in loss-making conditions, SMM expects operating rates at Indonesian smelters to recover to some extent.
Nickel Sulphate
According to SMM data, nickel sulphate production in July increased by 17.30% MoM and was up 4.77% YoY. Demand side, nickel salt consumption steadily increased due to the recovery of orders from precursor enterprises and the release of stockpiling demand; supply side, market supply showed a significant increase as some producers released new capacity and integrated enterprises increased inventory stockpiling of nickel sulphate. Looking ahead to the August market, influenced by tightening raw material supply, some nickel salt producers plan to continue production cuts or halt for maintenance, with an expected contraction in nickel sulphate supply. SMM predicts that the national nickel sulphate production in August will decrease 2.53% MoM and 10.89% YoY.
Battery-grade manganese sulphate
In July 2025, the production of high-purity manganese sulphate saw a significant MoM growth and also achieved a certain degree of YoY increase. On the supply side, manganese salt factories maintained an active production schedule this month. Influenced by destocking in June, some orders were shifted to July, directly leading to a noticeable increase in the supply volume, with a prominent MoM increment, while all manufacturers steadily advanced long-term contract deliveries. The demand side exhibited structural characteristics: driven by favorable factors, the downstream ternary cathode precursor market saw more restocking actions, coupled with the approaching September-October peak season, enterprise stockpiling demand was released, resulting in an increase in the execution of long-term contracts for high-purity manganese sulphate, boosting market vitality. However, spot order purchases remained low, and no hoarding phenomenon appeared in the market. It is expected that in August 2025, the downstream ternary cathode precursor market will continue to maintain a stable growth trend, likely driving another MoM increase in manganese salt factory production, with a sustained YoY growth rate.
Electrolytic Manganese Dioxide (EMD)
In July 2025, EMD production showed a positive trend, rising slightly MoM with a considerable YoY increase. Specifically, different types of products performed differently: the production of carbon-zinc type and alkaline manganese battery type MnO2 both showed an upward trend. This was mainly due to the stable performance of the downstream primary battery market, with continuous emergence of new orders; meanwhile, affected by macro policies, EMD market prices rose slightly, these two factors together encouraged enterprises to increase production schedules, promoting the increase in the output of these two types of products. However, the performance of MnO2 used for LMO battery was relatively weaker. Due to fierce competition in its downstream LMO market, most enterprises turned to using more cost-effective Mn3O4 to control costs, leading to a decline in the demand for MnO2 used for LMO battery, making it difficult to achieve a production increase. Looking ahead to August 2025, market expectations have been adjusted. Given that the primary battery market is likely to remain in the traditional off-season, EMD producers mostly aim at destocking, making it hard for production to continue rising. Overall, it is expected that the total EMD production in August will show a slight downward trend.
Mn3O4
In July 2025, Mn3O4 production showed steady growth, rising slightly MoM and maintaining a certain YoY growth rate. By product grade, market performance varied: battery-grade Mn3O4 saw a relatively significant increase. This was mainly due to two factors. On one hand, LMO market activity was relatively high in July, leading to increased procurement demand for battery-grade Mn3O4, which greatly boosted production enthusiasm among related enterprises and drove up the production schedule. On the other hand, the LMFP market is in a development phase, still selecting Mn3O4 as the manganese source in its production process, which also brought some benefits to the battery-grade Mn3O4 market. In contrast, electronic-grade Mn3O4 maintained stable operations, with overall supply fluctuating relatively little, primarily maintaining original production levels and fulfilling orders. Looking ahead to August 2025, market expectations are positive. As the LMO market may experience a slight recovery, it will further boost demand for battery-grade Mn3O4, driving an increase in its planned production. Overall, total Mn3O4 production in August is expected to continue its upward trend, with the YoY growth rate remaining optimistic.
High-Carbon Ferrochrome
According to SMM data, China's high-carbon ferrochrome production increased significantly in July 2025, up 7.52% MoM and 1.92% YoY. Production in Inner Mongolia increased 5.37% MoM, while production in southern regions such as Sichuan, Guizhou, and Guangxi increased 18.53% MoM. Environmental protection checks in northern Inner Mongolia officially ended, and most producers previously restricted from peak hours resumed normal production. Southern regions like Sichuan utilized the electricity price advantage during the rainy season to control production costs, leading to stable increases in ferrochrome production. Additionally, the steel mill tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome in July remained flat against expectations, marking the third consecutive month of fluctuating at highs, which to some extent ensured profit margins for ferrochrome producers, boosted production enthusiasm, resulted in a significant production increase, and reached the peak level for 2025. Meanwhile, overseas ferrochrome smelting operations remained largely suspended, reducing total ferrochrome imports; supply continued to be tight in H1 2025. Coupled with some recovery in the downstream stainless steel market, where the implementation of production cut plans fell short of expectations, demand for ferrochrome relatively strengthened. Ferrochrome producers actively produced to fill the supply-demand gap, and the ferrochrome market operated steadily.
Looking ahead to August 2025, high-carbon ferrochrome production is expected to continue rising slightly. On July 23 and 25, TISCO and Tsingshan announced their August tender prices for high-carbon ferrochrome at 7,645 yuan/mt (50% metal content) and 7,995 yuan/mt (50% metal content), respectively, down 200 yuan and 100 yuan MoM. Steel procurement prices fell less than expected, boosting market confidence in ferrochrome and maintaining high production enthusiasm. Additionally, stimulated by national anti-involution policies and large-scale infrastructure projects, the downstream stainless steel market strengthened, with both futures and spot prices rising, gradually restoring market activity, weakening expectations for production cuts, and potentially increasing demand for ferrochrome. Meanwhile, there were no signs of overseas ferrochrome smelting resumptions, and the import supply gap needed to be filled by domestic producers, further driving up ferrochrome production.
Stainless Steel
SMM survey data showed that in July 2025, national stainless steel production decreased 1.21% MoM and slightly increased 0.21% YoY. By series, 200-series production decreased 1.97% MoM; 300-series production decreased 0.03% MoM; 400-series production decreased 3.45% MoM.
In July, although overall stainless steel production continued to decline, the decrease was not as severe as previously anticipated. Despite the ongoing pullback in stainless steel production, it remained at a relatively high level. Affected by the off-season, market demand did not match previous supply, leading to sluggish transactions and lower prices. Inventories at steel mills, forward warehouses, and social inventories were all at high levels, with significant losses, significantly reducing the willingness of steel mills to produce, and frequent news of production cuts at the beginning of the month. However, with continuous production cuts by stainless steel mills and ongoing macro tailwinds, SS futures stopped falling and rebounded, and spot prices rose, improving the loss situation for steel mills. Additionally, stainless steel traders adopted a stable pricing strategy to actively sell inventory in July, leading to a significant recovery in transactions, easing inventory pressure, and reducing the intensity of production cuts by steel mills.
By series, 300-series stainless steel production remained largely stable, while 200-series and 400-series stainless steel production further declined. Driven by the strengthening of SS futures, 300-series stainless steel prices also strengthened, increasing the arbitrage space for traders and enhancing market activity. Although high-grade NPI prices also rose, stainless steel mills were still in a loss for most of the month, but the degree of loss had eased. 400-series stainless steel, due to previous overproduction by steel mills, saw a clear surplus, with prices continuously falling during the month. Coupled with tight high-carbon ferrochrome supply, making it difficult to reduce costs, steel mills reduced their planned production. 200-series stainless steel prices had been continuously falling, with significant losses for steel mills, leading to a pullback in planned production. However, with recent price increases for 200-series stainless steel, the loss situation has been repaired, and 200-series production is expected to increase in August.
Looking ahead to August, stainless steel production is expected to stop falling and rebound. Driven by ongoing macro tailwinds, stainless steel prices have moved away from previous lows, and the loss situation for steel mills has improved. With prices strengthening, market confidence gradually recovered, and transactions saw some improvement. After active destocking in July, stainless steel mills significantly alleviated previous inventory pressure, leading to increased production enthusiasm. Additionally, as the traditional consumption off-season gradually draws to a close, market expectations for demand recovery during the September-October peak season are relatively optimistic. Coupled with the recent implementation of national anti-involution policies and increased investment in major infrastructure projects, stainless steel is expected to achieve a steady rebound in August, driven by both policy tailwinds and demand expectations.
EMM
In July 2025, EMM production showed a dual decline, decreasing both MoM and YoY. The production drop this month was attributed to simultaneous weakness on both supply and demand sides: downstream steel mills were in the traditional off-season with persistently weak demand, and widespread production cuts in July directly impacted upstream EMM plants, which adopted a more cautious production attitude and proactively scaled back production schedules, focusing mainly on fulfilling existing long-term contracts. Meanwhile, the relatively short production cycle of EMM meant enterprises generally lacked motivation to build inventories; combined with some idled plants undergoing maintenance not yet resuming production, this further tightened market supply, ultimately resulting in a weak supply-demand balance. Looking ahead to August 2025, the market is expected to see mild adjustments: downstream stainless steel demand is projected to recover slightly, and recent strong market sentiment to hold firm on prices suggests potential for further price increases. Driven by anticipated profit margin expansion, enterprise production enthusiasm may be boosted. Overall, total EMM production in August is forecast to increase MoM, though the rise is expected to be limited.
SiMn Alloy
In July 2025, China's total SiMn alloy production increased noticeably, rising slightly MoM but declining YoY. Regionally, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia saw significant growth, while Guangxi, Guizhou, Yunnan and other regions maintained relatively stable production schedules, also recording slight MoM increases.
The main reasons for the MoM production growth in July were, first, Inner Mongolia, leveraging its stable production cost advantages, maintained a high operating rate, leading to increased output; Ningxia, due to lower electricity costs in July, effectively controlled production costs, resulting in higher production; southern regions like Yunnan benefited from preferential electricity rates during the rainy season, reducing production costs and achieving stable SiMn output growth. Second, the SiMn futures market performed moderately overall this month, showing high volatility in the latter half, with both futures and spot prices testing higher levels. SiMn alloy plant profits gradually improved, market sentiment warmed, and factory production enthusiasm increased accordingly. Additionally, HBIS Group's July SiMn pricing at 5,850 yuan/mt exceeded expectations, boosting SiMn market sentiment and encouraging higher production.
Looking ahead to August 2025, SiMn alloy production is expected to continue rising slightly. On one hand, cost advantages remain supportive, with those in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia persisting, and Yunnan and other regions still in the rainy season electricity discount period; most plants indicate no willingness to cut production. On the other hand, market confidence plays a significant role, as the positive performance of SiMn futures in July has led to plans for slight production increases in both south and north China. Additionally, stimulated by macro tailwinds such as the national anti-involution policy, the downstream stainless steel market is strengthening, market activity is gradually recovering, expectations for production cuts are weakening, and demand for SiMn alloy may increase.
Silicon Metal
According to SMM market communication, silicon metal production in July 2025 increased by 3.2% MoM but decreased by 30.6% YoY. Cumulative silicon metal production from January to July 2025 fell by 20.0% YoY.
Supply trends diverged between northern and southern silicon metal production regions in July. In the north, large-scale production cuts at large plants in Xinjiang significantly impacted monthly supply, with Xinjiang's July output dropping by nearly 27,000 mt MoM. Gansu also saw reduced monthly production due to minor capacity maintenance. In the south, production increases in Yunnan and Sichuan during the rainy season continued to drive output higher, with a cumulative MoM increase of approximately 36,000 mt in Sichuan and Yunnan.
Currently, operating silicon metal producers are concentrated in Xinjiang, Sichuan, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Gansu. Shaanxi, Guizhou, and Fujian are basically at a complete production halt. In August, production schedules in Sichuan and Yunnan are expected to continue increasing, while the slow resumption progress at large plants in Xinjiang may lead to supply increments falling short of expectations. The overall silicon metal production schedule is anticipated to rise to around 360,000-370,000 mt.
Polysilicon
Domestic polysilicon production in July increased slightly compared to June, up about 5.2% MoM. The main increase came from the ramp-up of resumed capacity in Yunnan. Polysilicon output in August is projected to see a relatively large increase, with further ramp-up in Yunnan and new production/resumption increments from Sichuan and Qinghai, as some polysilicon bases commence operations during the rainy season. The recovery in polysilicon prices further stimulates enterprises' production expectations.
PV Module
In July, module enterprises slightly raised production, with output up about 1.6% MoM. Recent module prices retreating after a rapid rise have somewhat affected production enthusiasm. Distributed demand shows marginal improvement but total volume remains low, while centralized demand from state-owned enterprises still involves wait-and-see attitudes and pressure tactics. By size and technology, large-size modules led by HJT have relatively better production schedules and shipments. Overall, August output is expected to decline slightly MoM.
Solar Cell
The solar cell market was stable with a slight increase in July. Sample-based global solar cell production reached 58.19 GW, up 3% MoM from June. This was mainly due to the impact of international trade policies, which prompted overseas customers to accelerate stockpiling, leading to a surge in demand and providing strong support for producer orders in mid-to-late July. By size, the proportion of large-size solar cells in the production schedule continued to rise to meet end-user requirements for higher wattage-based power generation efficiency and lower cost.
PV Film
The total production schedule for the PV film industry in July fell 2.57% MoM. The main reason was that module production scheduling on the demand side fell short of expectations, leading to a decline in demand, which resulted in a decrease in the overall operating rate of film producers and a drop in PV film production. In August, module production scheduling continued to show a downward trend, with demand persistently weakening, and PV film output in August is expected to remain on a downward trend.
PV-Grade EVA
The production schedule for PV-grade EVA in July rose 5.59% MoM. This was mainly due to the completion of maintenance at some petrochemical enterprises, coupled with the shift of production at certain petrochemical plants to PV-grade material. According to SMM, demand in August is still expected to follow a downward trend, and the overall operating rate of downstream film enterprises remains low. However, as the maintenance cycle for some petrochemical enterprises has ended and there are expectations for scheduling production of PV-grade material, PV-grade EVA output in August is projected to show an upward trend.
PV Glass
Domestic PV glass monthly production began to decline in July, edging down 0.69% MoM from June. Although the number of production days for domestic PV glass increased by 1 day in July, and some kiln technological transformations led to an increase in operating capacity, the number of kilns undergoing cold repairs for blockage also rose, resulting in an overall decline in production. On the supply side for August, due to the earlier increase in kilns undergoing production cuts for PV glass, glass enterprises still expect continued expectations for production cuts in August, with the operating rate estimated to decrease by nearly 1.81% MoM compared to July.
DMC
Domestic silicone DMC production in July decreased 4.5% MoM from June and fell 1.2% YoY. In July, an unexpected accident at a monomer plant in Shandong, maintenance activities, and production cuts at monomer plants in south-west China reduced overall operating capacity, leading to the decline in silicone production. Regarding future operations, although some domestic monomer enterprises will continue to operate at relatively low rates in August, the overall impact is expected to be quite limited, and silicone production in August is forecast to increase 5.5% MoM from July.
Magnesium Ingot
According to SMM data, China's primary magnesium production in July 2025 decreased 4.50% MoM but increased 1.82% YoY, with the operating rate adjusted down to 61.86%.
Primary magnesium production saw a slight decline in July, ending two consecutive months of increases, mainly for the following reasons: 1. High temperatures in production workshops made conditions difficult, leading to increased frequency of employee leave, extended smelting cycles, and other factors causing slight production decreases at nearly 70% of primary magnesium smelters nationwide. 2. Primary magnesium smelters in the main production areas conducted routine maintenance on idled equipment. According to SMM statistics, four smelters underwent maintenance shutdowns in July. 3. Concentrated rainfall in the main production areas in late July led to short-term daily production cuts at some magnesium plants. However, it is noteworthy that three primary magnesium smelters resumed production of magnesium ingots in July, which contributed to an increase in primary magnesium output. Overall, the reduction in primary magnesium production exceeded the increase, resulting in a downward trend in national primary magnesium output.
According to an SMM survey, five primary magnesium smelters in the main production areas have reported plans for maintenance shutdowns in August. Additionally, three primary magnesium smelters that underwent maintenance in July are expected to resume production in August, while the specific restart dates for other previously idled primary magnesium smelters remain undetermined. SMM will continue to monitor the situation. Overall, domestic primary magnesium smelter production is expected to experience a slight decline in August.
Magnesium Alloy
SMM data shows that China's magnesium alloy production in July 2025 decreased by 2.69% MoM but increased by 2.83% YoY. The operating rate for magnesium alloy fell to 57.44% in July.
Magnesium alloy production continued its downward trend in July. The current production decrease is primarily due to weak demand prompting magnesium alloy producers to voluntarily lower their operating rates. The main reasons for the decline in magnesium alloy production are: first, as seasonal factors shift, the market has begun to show off-season characteristics, with recent procurement volumes pulling back. Second, the magnesium alloy market is currently in a period of fatigue following a concentrated export rush, leading to a decrease in overseas orders for magnesium alloy. Consequently, some magnesium alloy producers have reduced their operating rates.
Looking ahead to August, as mainstream producers continue to intensify market promotion efforts, the cost-performance advantages of magnesium alloy materials are gradually gaining broader industry recognition. This trend has prompted some die-casting enterprises to adjust their production processes, gradually substituting magnesium alloy for aluminum alloy. Although this material substitution has not yet generated large-scale orders, it has driven a mild increase in overall market demand for magnesium alloy, creating expectations for some production growth. Considering the current changes in the supply-demand pattern, the industry generally expects magnesium alloy production to maintain stable operation in August.
Magnesium Powder
According to SMM data, China's magnesium powder production fluctuated rangebound in July 2025, increasing by 1.02% MoM.
Market divergence is evident within the industry, with overall pressure from both domestic and external demand. The domestic consumer market remains sluggish, and procurement demand from international steel enterprises has contracted, leading to a consecutive monthly decline in export orders. However, some small and medium-sized producers have proactively reduced their capacity utilization rates, while leading producers have increased their operating levels by leveraging order concentration advantages.
Announcement No. 17 of 2025 by the State Taxation Administration (issued on July 7, 2025) introduced significant revisions to the "Corporate Income Tax Prepayment Return Form (Category A) for Monthly (Quarterly) Periods." Article 7, concerning the declaration of export agency services, is regarded within the industry as a key measure to terminate the practice of forging or purchasing customs clearance documents from other import and export firms. This regulation officially took effect on October 1, 2025, marking the beginning of a stringent regulatory era for the long-standing malpractice of forging or purchasing customs clearance documents from other import and export firms in the foreign trade sector. Affected by this, the magnesium powder market may experience an export rush in August and September. Looking ahead to August, the magnesium powder industry is likely to see a slight increase in production.
Titanium Dioxide
According to SMM data, China's titanium dioxide production in July 2025 decreased by 1.06% MoM.
This month, titanium dioxide producers continued their production cuts strategy to cope with persistently shrinking market demand. By proactively adjusting capacity, they effectively alleviated inventory pressure, and some previously idled producers planned to resume production gradually next month. Current production primarily ensures the supply for long-term contracts with long-established customers. Inventories across producers are generally maintained at a reasonable level of around one month, achieving a dynamic balance between production and sales. Notably, some large enterprises initiated routine maintenance plans this month, further tightening market supply. Demand side, the overall performance of the coating industry continued to fall short of expectations, compounded by traditional off-season factors, leading to generally weak purchase willingness among end-users. The market widely anticipates that the recovery may be delayed until September.
Titanium Sponge
According to SMM data, China's titanium sponge production in July 2025 increased by 2.61% MoM.
This month, the titanium sponge market maintained stable production, but due to continuously rising prices, industry capacity continued an expansion trend within the year. Currently, it is the traditional summer off-season for demand, downstream procurement pace slowed down, and the supply-demand pattern gradually shifted towards oversupply. According to the latest SMM survey, in active response to the industry's anti-involution policy direction, some major producers plan to implement a 30% production cut in Q3. Market supply is expected to contract significantly in August. The overall industry inventory level continues to climb, and this proactive production cut is expected to accelerate inventory digestion, creating favorable conditions for subsequent price stabilization and rebound.
Light Rare Earths
In July, production of Pr-Nd oxide and Pr-Nd alloy increased slightly MoM. The increase in Pr-Nd oxide mainly came from a further rise in the operating rates of scrap recycling enterprises, with the increment primarily seen in Shandong and Jiangxi regions. The main increase in Pr-Nd alloy originated from the implementation of production increase plans by some metal enterprises. According to SMM, influenced by favorable order conditions for Pr-Nd alloy, operating rates at metal plants have increased. With the increase in downstream orders, the operating rate of leading alloy plants improved, but some small and medium-sized plants slightly reduced production due to poor orders. At the same time, some metal enterprises in Sichuan suspended furnaces and cut production in response to high-temperature weather. Overall, total Pr-Nd alloy production in July rose 1.64% MoM, while Pr-Nd oxide output increased 5% MoM. Looking ahead to August, with growth in orders taken by downstream magnetic material enterprises, rare earth raw material supply is expected to tighten, providing some support for Pr-Nd price trends.
Medium-Heavy Rare Earth
The growth in medium-heavy rare earth oxide production in July stemmed from two interrelated factors. On one hand, scrap recycling enterprises significantly raised operating rates stimulated by continuously favorable rare earth oxide prices, increasing market supply. Prices of medium-heavy rare earth products such as dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide increased noticeably in July, improving profit expectations for scrap recyclers and prompting them to boost scrap procurement and processing, thereby directly driving up medium-heavy rare earth oxide output. On the other hand, although monthly sales of ion-adsorption rare earth ore were weak, ore separation enterprises maintained certain inventory and did not significantly reduce operating rates. Under these combined effects, medium-heavy rare earth oxide production continued to grow MoM this month.
NdFeB
China's NdFeB magnetic material production increased 7.15% MoM in July 2025. Constrained by the rapid rise in Pr-Nd oxide and alloy prices during the month, NdFeB prices showed a short-term upward trend in July, temporarily stimulating stockpiling trends among downstream enterprises. Market feedback indicated that while inquiries from downstream increased, actual trading volume did not correspondingly rise, showing a "more inquiries, fewer purchases" phenomenon.
There were three reasons. First, wait-and-see sentiment prevailed: approaching month-end, although some end-users began planning stockpiling for the next period, they generally adopted a strong wait-and-see attitude facing rising Pr-Nd raw material prices and slightly following increases in magnetic material prices, leading to relatively conservative procurement behavior without significant urgent demand release. This directly resulted in no surge in overall magnetic material deliveries in July.
Second, order structure divergence: new overseas orders showed a clear concentration effect toward leading enterprises, mainly flowing to large magnetic material enterprises, leaving limited new overseas orders for mid-tier magnetic material companies.
Third, price volatility suppressed procurement: given significantly amplified fluctuations in Pr-Nd raw material prices recently, some domestic end-users (especially small and medium-sized enterprises) suspended or significantly slowed procurement pace for magnetic materials based on risk control considerations, prioritizing digestion of existing inventory instead. This strategy resulted in low enthusiasm for inquiries, ultimately leading to a slight MoM increase in magnetic material production in July. However, long-term end-use demand continues to provide support. As the traditional off-season nears its end, coupled with factors such as new energy enterprises pushing for volume in H2 and recovering demand for consumer goods like summer air conditioners and mobile phones, the domestic magnetic material market demand was jointly boosted, ultimately driving an increase in overall trading activity.
Molybdenum Concentrate
According to SMM data, China's molybdenum concentrate production in July 2025 increased by 2.7% MoM and 1.3% YoY. Total domestic molybdenum concentrate production from January to July increased by 4.8% YoY.
In July, molybdenum concentrate enterprises in Henan and Heilongjiang that had undergone maintenance earlier resumed operating at full capacity, leading to a MoM production increase. Additionally, a mine in Jilin expanded production in July, resulting in higher output compared to the previous period. At the end of July, a mine in Inner Mongolia suspended production due to an unexpected accident, affecting some molybdenum concentrate output, but the overall impact was limited. Follow-up attention is still needed regarding the resumption of operations at the enterprise. In July, due to stable production and sales both upstream and downstream, molybdenum concentrate inventory within the industry remained low. Furthermore, the sudden production halt at an Inner Mongolia copper-molybdenum mine at month-end intensified concerns over molybdenum concentrate supply. Consequently, mainstream mine tender prices rose rapidly by month-end, with mainstream transaction prices for 45%-50% grade molybdenum concentrate reaching 4,330-4,365 yuan/mtu, stimulating the willingness to sell among other molybdenum concentrate enterprises.
Entering August, domestic molybdenum concentrate industry profits are substantial, leading to a decreased willingness among enterprises for voluntary maintenance shutdowns. However, considering the potential difficulty in quickly restarting the specific copper-molybdenum mine in Inner Mongolia, which may affect part of the molybdenum concentrate supply in August, domestic total molybdenum concentrate production in August is expected to show a slight decrease.
Ferromolybdenum
According to SMM statistics, China's ferromolybdenum production in July 2025 decreased by approximately 2.8% MoM but increased by 12.5% YoY.
In July, domestic ferromolybdenum market prices fluctuated at high levels. Downstream demand from sectors like stainless steel remained stable, with steel tender volumes exceeding 13,000 mt and active market transactions. However, the molybdenum concentrate market also fluctuated at highs, creating significant cost pressure for ferromolybdenum producers. Most enterprises operated at a loss, showing insufficient willingness to accept low-priced orders. Some enterprises reduced capacity, leading to a slight decline in operating rates.
Entering August, production schedules for molybdenum-containing steel products like domestic stainless steel are stable MoM, and downstream demand for molybdenum is relatively stable. However, ferromolybdenum plants have low raw material ore inventory. With ore-end prices rising significantly at the end of July, some enterprises' purchase willingness has declined. There may be cases of passive production cuts due to insufficient raw material inventory. Consequently, domestic ferromolybdenum production in August is expected to be unlikely to grow.
Ammonium Paratungstate (APT)
According to SMM statistics, China's APT (Ammonium Paratungstate) production in July 2025 decreased by approximately 6% MoM but increased by 3.8% YoY.
In July, the domestic tungsten concentrate market surged significantly. Ammonium paratungstate (APT) industry profits were poor, leading some enterprises to suspend spot order intake and primarily make shipments under long-term contracts. Production cuts occurred in the industry due to profitability issues. Additionally, some APT enterprises in regions like Jiangxi underwent maintenance during the month, further tightening market supply.
Entering August, the tungsten concentrate market remained tight, with restocking difficulties. Tungsten concentrate prices are unlikely to see a pullback, while profit recovery in the APT industry remains challenging. Enterprise operating enthusiasm is low, and production is expected to be largely stable.
Silver
Silver production continued its increasing trend in July 2025, rising approximately 1.4% MoM from June. Smelters that underwent maintenance in June resumed operations as scheduled in July. The main production increase came from a scaled smelter in Guangxi which ramped up output after maintenance resumed. A smelter in Hunan increased its July silver output by adjusting raw material grade. Furthermore, associated silver production from copper, lead, and zinc smelters in Shaanxi, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, and other regions saw marginal increases. On the reduction side, the main impact came from maintenance at lead smelters. Partial maintenance at a lead smelter in Henan led to a decline in silver anode slime raw material supply, resulting in a slight production decrease in July; another lead smelter saw silver output drop due to extended maintenance of its precious metals line into early July as part of routine maintenance from June-July.
Entering August, although production resumptions at smelters are expected to bring some incremental output—a previously idled smelter in Henan is expected to resume and increase production, and the precious metals workshop of a lead smelter in Inner Mongolia that resumed from routine maintenance in July will gradually return to full capacity in August, suggesting a slight potential for increased output—production at smelters that saw slight increases in July may not remain stable in August. The risk of silver prices retreating after a rapid rise makes smelters cautious about falling prices and prudent in purchasing high-grade silver-containing raw materials for stockpiling. SMM anticipates refined silver production in August may experience a slight decline of 0.68%.
Silver Nitrate
Silver nitrate production increased approximately 10% MoM in July 2025. Besides the low operating base in June, PV end-user solar cell operations in mid-to-late July were better than expected. Some medium-to-large scale solar cell enterprises mentioned expanded paste procurement needs due to concentrated order deliveries, benefiting operating rates at some silver powder and silver nitrate producers. Silver nitrate plant order performance varied significantly in July; some producers voluntarily gave up orders due to processing fees nearing losses or customer requests for payment terms, leading to lower operating rates. However, downstream consumption overall showed improvement compared to June, allowing silver nitrate operating rates to maintain positive growth. Entering August, silver nitrate enterprise order expectations are mixed, and overall August silver nitrate production is expected to remain stable or see a slight decrease compared to July.
Note on the MoM Increase in Silver Nitrate Production in July: Due to the addition and adjustment of enterprises included in the SMM survey in H2 2025, the MoM growth rate of silver nitrate production in July was amplified. Before adjustment, silver nitrate production was 680 mt in June and 759 mt in July, up 11.62% MoM. After sample adjustment, production was 820 mt in June and 909 mt in July, up 10.85% MoM.
(In the database, the June production figure remains 680 mt, while the July production figure is the adjusted 909 mt. Since the historical data for June will not be retrospectively revised, the MoM increase for July in the SMM database appears magnified.)
Antimony Ingot
According to SMM assessment, China's antimony ingot production (including antimony ingot, converted crude antimony, antimony cathode, etc.) in July 2025 decreased significantly by over 20% MoM, reaching approximately 24.5%. Specifically, among the 33 surveyed producers currently assessed by SMM, 17 producers suspended production (an increase of 2 MoM), 14 producers reported reduced output (a decrease of 1 MoM), and 2 producers maintained basically normal production (a decrease of 1 MoM). Regarding antimony ingot production, after the overall output fell below 5,000 mt in June, production in July continued to drop significantly to below 4,000 mt. The substantial decline in July, following the significant drop in June, was considered normal by many market participants. Currently, overseas ore sources still cannot enter the domestic market in large quantities, while the pace of domestic mine suspensions is intensifying. The situation of high prices and scarce availability of antimony ore is evident in some major mining areas in north and south China. Market participants indicated that a large number of producers began maintenance shutdowns and production restrictions in June, and in July, over half of the producers were in a state of suspension. As raw materials are expected to become increasingly tight, further production suspensions and cuts are anticipated. Market participants expect that the likelihood of a MoM rebound in national antimony ingot production in August 2025 compared to July is relatively small, with a greater probability of maintaining stability or even experiencing a slight further decline.
Note: SMM began publishing the assessed national production of antimony ingot (including antimony ingot, converted crude antimony, antimony cathode, etc.) in May 2022. Benefiting from SMM's high coverage rate of the antimony industry, the survey covers 33 antimony ingot producers distributed across 8 provinces in China, with a total sample capacity exceeding 20,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate of over 99%.
Sodium Pyroantimonate
According to SMM assessment, China's production of first-grade sodium pyroantimonate in July 2025 is estimated to decrease slightly by about 2.3% MoM. After experiencing significant fluctuations for several consecutive months, the production of first-grade sodium pyroantimonate saw a slight pullback in July following a rebound in June, leading many market participants to remark on the market's unpredictability. However, many market participants consider this a normal phenomenon, as July-August is traditionally the off-season for PV glass plant orders. The production cuts at many manufacturers in July were also related to reduced orders, and it remains uncertain whether this situation will persist into August. Looking at detailed data, among SMM's 13 survey subjects, three manufacturers were in a state of shutdown or commissioning in July. Four sodium pyroantimonate producers saw some growth in production, but three others experienced significant declines in output. Consequently, China's production of first-grade sodium pyroantimonate saw a slight decrease overall in July. Market participants expect that national sodium pyroantimonate output in August is unlikely to drop significantly compared to July, with the likelihood of remaining flat or continuing a slight decline being higher.
Note: SMM began publishing its national sodium pyroantimonate assessed production starting July 2023. Benefiting from SMM's high coverage rate of the antimony industry, the total number of sodium pyroantimonate producers surveyed by SMM is 13, distributed across six provinces, with a total sample capacity exceeding 86,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate as high as 99%.
Refined Bismuth
According to SMM assessment, China's refined bismuth production in July 2025 is expected to decrease slightly by approximately 1.4% MoM compared to June. After a sudden sharp decline in bismuth production in May, output has continued its downward trend for two consecutive months, which was within the expectations of many market participants. Market participants indicated that currently, due to persistently tight raw materials and recent environmental protection reasons, stagnant or continuously declining production at manufacturers is understandable. From the recent competition for bismuth raw materials in the market, many raw materials were transacted at high prices; for instance, the transaction price for a recent batch of bismuth concentrate was even close to the price of the finished product, indicating intense competition for raw materials in the market. From the production situation of manufacturers, some are still undergoing equipment maintenance, and many show stable or slightly declining production trends, leading to an overall domestic production decrease compared to June, though the decline is less pronounced than the previous month. In detailed data, among SMM's 24 survey subjects, no manufacturer showed a significant production increase in July, but two resumed production after completing maintenance. Four manufacturers experienced significant production declines, while the output of the remaining manufacturers changed relatively little. Many market participants expect that the tight supply of raw materials for national bismuth manufacturers will be difficult to alleviate in August. With fierce competition for production raw materials like bismuth concentrate currently, production is likely to continue being affected. The possibility of refined bismuth production remaining stable or continuing a slight decline is relatively high, while the likelihood of another significant drop is relatively small.
Note: SMM began publishing its national refined bismuth assessed production starting October 2022. Benefiting from SMM's high coverage rate of the bismuth industry, the total number of refined bismuth producers surveyed by SMM is 24, distributed across 8 provinces nationwide, with a total sample capacity exceeding 50,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate as high as over 99%.
Lithium Carbonate
In July 2025, China's monthly total lithium carbonate production exceeded 80,000 mt for the first time, increasing 4% MoM and surging 26% YoY. The main driver for the production growth was the emergence of hedging opportunities in the futures market, prompting lithium chemical plants that previously had low operating rates to resume production successively, leading to a significant rebound in the industry's overall supply capacity.
By raw material: Spodumene saw significant increments, while lepidolite and salt lake sources dropped back slightly.
Spodumene-derived lithium carbonate: Total production in July increased 14% MoM. On one hand, production lines at some first- and second-tier lithium chemical plants resumed operation, contributing to the increment; on the other hand, non-integrated lithium chemical plants raised their operating rates stimulated by futures hedging profits, driving production growth.
Lepidolite-derived lithium carbonate: Total production decreased 8% MoM. Mining license issues for mines in Jiangxi Province raised market concerns, but the relevant mines currently maintain normal production. A leading lithium chemical plant's output in July failed to reach previous highs due to production line maintenance, leading to an overall pullback in lepidolite-derived production.
Salt lake-derived lithium carbonate: Total production decreased 2% MoM, mainly affected by production reductions or suspensions at some salt lake enterprises due to extraction issues, while other enterprises maintained stable production under suitable weather conditions.
Scrap-derived lithium carbonate: Total production in July increased 10% MoM, primarily benefiting from rising lithium carbonate prices, which boosted production enthusiasm among recycling enterprises, although the total production volume remains relatively low.
August Outlook: Uncertainty Persists for Jiangxi Mines, but Overall Production May Maintain Growth
The lithium carbonate market in August still faces uncertainty regarding mining policies in Jiangxi Province. In extreme scenarios (such as mine suspensions), relevant lithium chemical plants can still rely on inventory and spot order purchases to maintain minimal production. Furthermore, supported by hedging profits for the spodumene route, coupled with the expectation of ramp-up from some flexible production lines, total lithium carbonate production in August is still expected to have growth potential. Subsequent close attention should be paid to the specific implementation of mining policies in Jiangxi.
Lithium Hydroxide
SMM data shows that China's lithium hydroxide production in July increased slightly MoM but fell 22% YoY. Smelting side, ternary cathode material orders were slightly better than expected, with downstream and end-user cargo pick-up showing a slight increase; individual producers adopted a produce-based-on-sales approach, leading to increased output. Combined with new capacities being in the ramp-up stage, smelting-side production increased 2% MoM. Causticisation side, due to a slight recovery in orders for individual enterprises, output increased 8% MoM.
Looking ahead to August, limited market supply growth expectations will prompt some lithium chemical plants to shift flexible production lines to lithium carbonate output, leading to a slight drop in smelting production. Meanwhile, planned shutdowns at certain causticisation enterprises will also reduce causticisation output. Overall, total lithium hydroxide production in August is expected to decrease by 5% MoM and 24% YoY.
Cobalt Sulphate
In July 2025, SMM cobalt sulphate production fell 9.56% MoM but rose 1.01% YoY.
By raw material source, cobalt intermediate products accounted for about 53%, MHP for about 18%, and recycled materials for about 29%. As the DRC export ban extension continues to push up cobalt intermediate product prices, smelters' raw material inventories of cobalt intermediates have gradually declined, with recycled materials and MHP increasingly substituting for cobalt intermediates.
Supply side, the cobalt sulphate spot price showed a continuous upward trend in July, but with cobalt intermediates rising even more sharply, production costs further exceeded selling prices. Some cobalt sulphate smelters, due to weak economics or raw material shortages, opted to reduce cobalt sulphate output in favor of other cobalt products with better economics.
Demand side, July remained in the off-season, with orders from downstream ternary and cobalt tetroxide producers showing no significant improvement. Buyers adopted a wait-and-see approach, focusing on digesting existing inventory. Only a few enterprises with low days of raw material inventories made just-in-time procurement, keeping demand relatively stable.
By August, tight supply of cobalt intermediate products is expected to become more pronounced. Smelters will adopt more cautious production schedules, with some inventory-constrained enterprises continuing to cut or even halt cobalt sulphate production. The August cobalt sulphate production schedule is forecast to decrease by 3.57% MoM.
Cobalt Tetroxide (Co3O4)
In July 2025, Co3O4 production pulled back slightly by 2% MoM but still achieved significant growth of 25% YoY. Supply side, producers faced tightening raw material supply, prompting some plants to halt or cut production, thereby reducing the proportion of in-house production. To counter price volatility and material shortages, the toll processing ratio increased, exceeding 50%. Demand side, procurement was driven by demand growth in downstream applications. Looking ahead to August, raw material supply is expected to tighten further. Consequently, the share of toll processing and long-term contracts at Co3O4 producers will continue to rise, further squeezing spot market (spot order) demand. Constrained by material shortages and production model adjustments, overall Co3O4 production schedules are expected to tighten further. Overall, the overall market supply in August is expected to continue its downward trend, with the MoM decline projected to widen to around 7%.
Ternary Cathode Precursor
In July 2025, SMM ternary cathode precursor production showed steady growth, up 5.71% MoM and 5.52% YoY. In terms of product series structure, the market landscape remained stable, with the 5-series accounting for 15.65%, the 6-series maintaining dominance at 42.89%, and the 8-series and 9-series holding 27.39% and 9.96% market shares, respectively. In the power battery application sector, the 6-series continued to be the mainstream choice in the domestic power market, while the overseas power market remained dominated by high-nickel products. Notably, recent demand for 9-series products showed an upward trend, slightly squeezing the market share of 8-series materials. In the consumer electronics market, with increasing attention on high-nickel products, the market share of 5-series products experienced a slight decline. The current favorable growth trend in ternary cathode precursor production is primarily driven by the following factors: first, after producers concentrated on destocking at the mid-year period in June, the industry entered a phase of restocking in July; second, in response to the traditional auto sales peak season of "September-October," precursor manufacturers initiated early stockpiling; third, market expectations of rising nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate prices prompted some downstream cathode material producers to adopt early purchasing strategies, resulting in a front-load orders effect. Looking ahead to August, although the traditional peak season is approaching, as some front-loaded orders were already absorbed in July, production growth is expected to slow down, with the MoM increase projected at 5.4%.
Ternary Cathode Material
In July 2025, SMM ternary cathode material production continued its growth trend, up 5.75% MoM and significantly up 16.65% YoY. The overall industry operating rate rebounded to 45%, slightly higher than in June. Regarding product structure, 5-series materials accounted for 15.05%, 6-series materials maintained a leading position with 36.61%, while 8-series and 9-series held 29.06% and 17.37% market shares, respectively. As the mainstream product in the domestic power battery market, 6-series materials continued to expand their market share, while the overseas market remained dominated by high-nickel products, with notable growth in demand for 9-series products, which partially substituted for 8-series materials. In the power battery market, ternary material orders were concentrated among leading producers. With the approach of the traditional "September-October" auto sales peak season, the cathode material sector has begun stockpiling. In the consumer electronics market, driven by expectations of rising raw material prices, some battery cell manufacturers adopted early purchasing strategies; this front-load orders effect effectively boosted demand for cathode materials. In addition, the power-bank recall incident earlier prompted some battery cell manufacturers to exit the market, creating a demand gap that encouraged remaining producers to accelerate market expansion and further boosted order growth. Looking to August, as some front-loaded orders were already fulfilled in July, ternary cathode material production growth is expected to moderate, with a projected MoM increase of 3.07%.
Iron Phosphate
Domestic iron phosphate production rose 9% MoM and surged 70% YoY in July. On the supply side, July saw a notable production increase: integrated enterprises posted significant gains in their captive iron phosphate output, while newly commissioned expansions at other producers also lifted volumes. However, the concentrated release of new capacity squeezed shipments at existing producers, causing some to miss sales targets. On the demand side, downstream LFP demand grew markedly in July; buyers increasingly favored cost-effective, high-quality iron phosphate, weakening price expectations yet raising quality requirements. Cost side, industrial-grade MAP entered its off-season and prices pulled back sharply from June, whereas ferrous sulphate prices kept rising, sharply increasing iron-source cost pressure for producers. With additional capacity continuing to come online, August iron phosphate output is expected to keep growing—up 3% MoM and 56% YoY.
LFP
China’s LFP material output rose about 1.86% MoM and 36% YoY in July, with industry operating rate near 58%. The month is traditionally a low season for auto sales, so downstream battery cell manufacturers saw tepid overall demand. Leading material plants maintained relatively stable operating rates, yet a few second- and third-tier producers scaled back output, mainly due to product pricing and downstream demand adjustments. By application, power orders declined this month: one cell maker’s line upgrades disrupted normal production, cutting corresponding cathode orders, and overall NEV sales remained sluggish—August is another traditional auto-sales lull—so July power battery cell output was weak. In contrast, ESS material orders performed well: the US postponed reciprocal tariff hikes by 90 days, keeping American orders brisk; supportive policies in Eastern Europe and other overseas markets spurred household ESS installations; and domestic ESS projects continued to benefit from local government incentives, driving incremental demand. Consequently, LFP material output posted a slight increase. Looking to August, the power segment will see early stockpiling for the September-October peak season, while the ESS market is set to maintain normal growth, allowing LFP cathode plants to ramp up accordingly.
LCO
In July 2025, LCO production showed significant growth, up 7% MoM and 30% YoY. Demand side, 3C electronics consumer market demand grew, and starting from September, various brands will enter an intensive new product launch season, coupled with the approaching traditional consumption peak season of "September-October peak season," downstream end-users engaged in stockpiling and production. Additionally, the market generally held bullish expectations for future LCO prices, prompting some enterprises to place orders in advance to build inventory. Supply side, LCO cathode material producers widely adopted the "produce based on sales" strategy, correspondingly increasing their operating rates based on rising downstream procurement demand. Looking ahead to August, downstream demand is expected to remain stable with a slight increase. Against this backdrop, LCO producers are likely to continue adhering to the "produce based on sales" strategy, with monthly output projected to achieve a slight increase of approximately 1% MoM.
LMO
In July 2025, LMO production showed dual growth momentum, continuing to rise MoM, with the YoY growth rate also performing prominently. From the supply side, the market exhibited phased characteristics this month: in the first ten days, most producers maintained stable production schedules; starting from the middle ten days, the price of raw material lithium carbonate increased significantly, injecting positive sentiment into the market and directly prompting LMO manufacturers to collectively initiate production increase plans in the latter ten days, leading to an expansion in supply scale. The demand side showed subtle changes characteristic of the off-season: downstream battery cell manufacturers' procurement was primarily for rigid demand, with overall market activity relatively low. However, influenced by concerns about continued future price increases, some enterprises engaged in small-scale stockpiling, preventing drastic fluctuations on the demand side. Looking ahead to August 2025, market expectations are positive: as downstream market activity is expected to recover, inquiry volume is likely to gradually increase, further stimulating LMO producers' production enthusiasm. Driven by this, LMO supply is expected to achieve MoM growth again, with the YoY growth rate also maintaining an expansion trend.
*Survey Methodology
The SMM production survey is conducted by professional analysts using methods such as phone calls and field surveys to regularly track Chinese metal producers on a monthly basis, issuing China metal production reports accordingly.
During the survey process, basic sample coverage is ensured and continuously expanded; simultaneously, factors such as capacity scale, geographical distribution, and enterprise nature are considered to reasonably select and distribute samples, making each sub-item data representative.
At the end of each month, the reports are released through official channels including the SMM official website (www.smm.cn), WeChat subscription account (Today's Nonferrous Metals), and mobile site (m.smm.cn).
Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.