SMM Releases Metal Production Data for July 2025

Overview of Base Metal Production in July 2025

Copper Cathode

In July, SMM reported a significant month-on-month (MoM) increase of 39,400 mt in China's copper cathode production, representing a growth rate of 3.47% and a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 14.21%. The cumulative production from January to July increased by 820,800 mt YoY, marking an 11.82% growth rate.

Several factors contributed to the substantial increase in copper cathode production in July: 1) The capacity utilization rate of newly commissioned smelters rose rapidly, exceeding production expectations; 2) Smelters that had previously reduced production due to environmental protection inspections resumed normal operations in July; 3) Sulphuric acid prices remained high across various regions in July, effectively offsetting smelting losses. However, there were also unfavorable aspects. Affected by the increasingly tight supply of cold scrap, some smelters began to experience minor production cuts, which are expected to continue into August. Although copper concentrate TCs have recently seen a slight increase, reaching -$42.63/mt as of July 25 (up $2.18/mt from June 27), the port inventory of copper concentrates has fallen to a new low for the year. According to our statistics, the current port inventory is only 560,900 mt, which will be unfavorable for smelters to continue expanding production in the future market.

In summary, the sample operating rate of the copper cathode industry in July was 88.19%, up 2.43 percentage points MoM. Among them, the operating rate of large smelters was 91.12%, up 3.6 percentage points MoM; the operating rate of medium-sized smelters was 85.62%, up 0.75 percentage points MoM; the operating rate of small smelters was 67.28%, down 2.09 percentage points MoM. The operating rate of smelters using copper concentrates was 92.3%, up 3.2 percentage points MoM; the operating rate of smelters not using copper concentrates (copper scrap or anode plates) was 68.5%, down 0.6 percentage points MoM.

Entering August, according to our statistics, only one smelter has a maintenance plan, and the production decline caused by maintenance is not significant. However, due to the tight supply of copper concentrates and cold scrap, the number of smelters experiencing production cuts in August will increase compared to July. Nevertheless, influenced by the completion of maintenance and the continuous ramp-up of newly commissioned smelters in east China, we believe that the national copper cathode production in August will only decline slightly.

Based on the production schedules of various smelters, SMM predicts that the domestic copper cathode production in August will decline by 6,000 mt MoM, representing a decrease rate of 0.51%, and increase by 154,800 mt YoY, marking a growth rate of 15.27%. The cumulative production from January to August will increase by 975,600 mt YoY, representing a growth rate of 12.26%. The sample operating rate of the copper cathode industry in August will be 87.81%, down 0.38 percentage points MoM. Among them, the operating rate of large smelters will be 90.71%, down 0.41 percentage points MoM; the operating rate of medium-sized smelters will be 85.49%, down 0.13 percentage points MoM; the operating rate of small smelters will be 66.33%, down 0.94 percentage points MoM. The operating rate of smelters using copper concentrates will be 92%, down 0.3 percentage points MoM; the operating rate of smelters not using copper concentrates (copper scrap or anode plates) will be 67.5%, down 1 percentage point MoM. Finally, we predict that production will continue to decline in September due to an increase in the number of smelters with maintenance plans to five, involving a capacity of 900,000 mt.

Aluminum

According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum production in July 2025 (31 days) increased by 1.05% YoY and 3.11% MoM. The operating capacity of domestic aluminum in July increased slightly MoM, mainly due to the startup of the second-phase replacement project of aluminum in Shandong-Yunnan. Due to the strong off-season atmosphere in the terminal market, alloy product production cuts were significant across various regions. As a result, the proportion of liquid aluminum in domestic aluminum smelters declined significantly in July, with the industry's liquid aluminum proportion sliding 2.06 percentage points MoM to 73.77%. Based on SMM's liquid aluminum proportion data, the domestic aluminum casting ingot volume in July decreased by 9.34% YoY and increased by 11.89% MoM to approximately 976,300 mt.

Capacity changes: As of the end of July, SMM estimated that the domestic aluminum existing capacity was about 45.69 million mt (SMM made revisions in late April after considering capacity replacement and old plant demolition, removing some duplicated capacity). The domestic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.9 million mt. Due to capacity replacement and commissioning, the industry's operating rate increased slightly MoM. In addition, small-scale technological transformation capacity in Chongqing resumed production earlier.

Production forecast: Entering August 2025, the domestic aluminum operating capacity will remain high. The second batch of replacement projects in Yunnan will be commissioned and achieve production, with the industry's operating rate rebounding. In terms of the liquid aluminum proportion, currently only a few enterprises have indicated that they will continue to increase casting ingot volume in August, mainly due to weak terminal demand, lower processing fees for alloyed products, and related enterprises' pessimistic expectations for August demand, leading to continued production cuts and forcing aluminum smelters to increase casting ingot volume. It is predicted that the liquid aluminum proportion will continue to run at a low level, with limited downside room. Subsequent attention should still be paid to changes in terminal demand and the trend of the aluminum liquid aluminum proportion.

Alumina

According to SMM data, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production in July 2025 (31 days) increased by 5.40% MoM and 6.65% YoY. As of the end of July, China's metallurgical-grade alumina existing capacity was about 110.32 million mt, with the actual operating capacity increasing by 2.00% MoM and the operating rate reaching 81.6%.

Boosted by macro policies such as "anti-rat race competition" and "capacity reduction," alumina futures strengthened, with the most-traded contract reaching a high of 3,577 yuan/mt within the month. The arbitrage window between futures and spot opened, prompting active inquiries and purchases from arbitrageurs. Spot supply tightened, with holders refusing to budge on prices, leading to a follow-up increase in spot alumina prices. The profitability of alumina refineries improved again within the month. Except for a few routine maintenance cases, no production cut or maintenance news was heard, and the operating capacity increased by 1.77 million mt MoM.

By region:

In July, alumina capacity in south China increased and decreased in parallel. A few alumina refineries underwent routine maintenance, but the impact on alumina production was minor. In addition, a few alumina refineries reduced their operating capacity starting from June and did not recover in July, resulting in a slight decrease in production. Except for this, due to the firm alumina prices and moderate profitability, the operating capacity of a few alumina refineries increased. Overall, the operating capacity in south China decreased by 20,000 mt MoM.

In July, driven by profitability, the operating capacity of alumina in north China increased significantly, with an absolute MoM increase of 1.78 million mt.

Next month's forecast: Entering August, currently, the spot alumina prices are fluctuating at highs, and the profitability of alumina refineries is moderate. The intention for production cuts and maintenance is not strong. Only a few enterprises are expected to undergo routine maintenance, but the impact on production will be limited. The national metallurgical-grade alumina operating capacity in August is predicted to increase slightly, reaching about 90.56 million mt/year.

Overseas Aluminum

According to SMM statistics, the total overseas aluminum production in July 2025 increased by 2.7% YoY. The monthly average operating rate was 88.5%, down 0.8% MoM but up 0.2% YoY.

This month, Alcoa and its energy partner Ignis announced that after the massive power outage in April, the San Ciprián smelter in Spain has begun to restart in batches, with the goal of restoring its nominal capacity of 228,000 mt by mid-2026. Due to the delay in the restart progress, Alcoa expects a profit loss of $90 million–$110 million for this smelter in 2025.

SMM also learned that after three years of phased restarts, the capacity utilization rate of the Alumar smelter in Brazil has risen to 92% (about 411,000 mt/year) and is currently striving for full capacity. In Africa, South32 stated that it has not yet reached an agreement with energy supplier HCB on the power agreement after 2026, and there is a risk of partial shutdown for the Mozal smelter with a capacity of 580,000 mt/year. Negotiations are still ongoing. If no feasible alternative solution can be found, South32 does not rule out the possibility of reducing its stake in Mozal.

Power issues also plague Rio Tinto's Tomago smelter in Australia. The smelter is negotiating with the Australian federal and New South Wales state governments on the power contract for 2026–2029 and federal production tax credits, but no agreement has been reached yet. Tomago is located about 125 kilometers north of Sydney, consuming about 10% of New South Wales' power and producing 590,000 mt of aluminum annually. In addition to Rio Tinto, shareholders also include CSR and Hydro Aluminum.

In Asia, after the commissioning of the aluminum expansion production line of BALCO in India is completed, it is expected to start increasing production in July.

Overall, the overseas aluminum supply side remained stable in July, but the medium and long-term prospects of some smelters are still uncertain. Looking ahead to August, with BALCO continuing to ramp up production, overseas aluminum production is expected to increase by about 3% YoY, and the operating rate is expected to rebound to 88.8%.

Overseas Metallurgical-Grade Alumina

According to SMM statistics, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production in July 2025 increased by 7.1% YoY. The average operating rate of overseas alumina enterprises rose to 82.4%, up 0.5% MoM and 3.5% YoY.
The incremental production this month mainly came from Indonesia: PT Bintan Indonesia Alumina, a subsidiary of Nanshan Holding, commenced feeding materials for its Phase III project (with a capacity of 1 million mt/year) in June and produced its first batch of alumina in July. It is expected to reach full capacity by the end of the year, followed by the immediate commencement of Phase IV construction. Meanwhile, Vedanta Lanjigarh alumina refinery in India has fully commissioned its additional 1.5 million mt/year expansion capacity, achieving a production of 587,000 mt in Q2 2025, up 9% MoM. MIND ID also increased the operating load of the SGAR alumina project from 80% to 90%.

In addition, Rio Tinto's Yarwun alumina refinery in Australia has been undergoing maintenance since Q2, resulting in a 14.6% MoM decline in production. This impact is expected to persist until the end of Q3.

Looking ahead to August, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production is expected to increase by 7.2% YoY, driven by the continued ramp-up of Nanshan's Phase III and Lanjigarh. Due to the expansion of the new capacity base, the average operating rate is expected to drop back slightly to 81.1%.

Primary Lead

In July 2025, the national production of primary lead did not increase but decreased, with a MoM decline of 1.49 percentage points and a YoY increase of 5.43 percentage points. The cumulative production of primary lead from January to July 2025 increased by 9.05 percentage points YoY.

It is understood that unexpected maintenance occurred at primary lead smelters in central China in July, and these enterprises had relatively large production capacities, dragging down the monthly primary lead production below expectations and resulting in a MoM decline. The main reasons are as follows: On the one hand, the supply of lead concentrates is tight, and the processing fees have been declining for two consecutive months. The latest SMM import ore pb60 monthly TC was reported at -$70~(-$50)/dmt, declining for two consecutive months, and the market even saw transaction prices of -$150~(-$100)/dmt. On the other hand, in mid-to-late July, the center of lead price movement shifted downward, reducing the production enthusiasm of primary lead smelters. Some enterprises chose to actively reduce production or slow down the recovery progress after maintenance due to tight raw material supply, resulting in a negative MoM growth in monthly production.

Looking ahead to August, primary lead smelters will gradually resume production after completing maintenance, including medium-to-large enterprises in central, southwest, east, and north China. Meanwhile, the new capacity of large enterprises in central China is about to come online, potentially bringing additional incremental space. Even if primary lead smelters in north and northeast China enter routine maintenance, it will not change the upward trend in primary lead production in August. In addition, during the process of production resumption or new capacity commissioning, the raw material supply gap for primary lead enterprises may widen again. Coupled with the weakening of lead prices at the end of July, which dampened the production enthusiasm of some enterprises, SMM conservatively estimates that primary lead production in July will increase by approximately 4.5 percentage points MoM.

Secondary Lead

In July 2025, the production of secondary lead increased as scheduled, with a MoM increase of 10.93% and a YoY increase of 3.13% compared to the previous year. The production of secondary refined lead rose by 13.96% MoM and 1.28% YoY.

In July, lead prices first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the month, the most-traded SHFE lead 2509 contract reached a high of 17,340 yuan/mt, while the price increase of scrap batteries was limited, leading to an improvement in the production enthusiasm of secondary lead smelters. Large secondary lead smelter A in north China, which had idle capacity due to multiple factors in the early stage, resumed production in early July. Large secondary lead smelter B in north China completed maintenance and resumed production in late July. Small and medium-sized smelter C in north China resumed production in late June and maintained stable production in July. Medium-sized secondary lead smelter A in east China stopped production for maintenance in late July and then resumed production. These enterprises made significant contributions to the secondary lead production in July.

By the end of July, the most-traded SHFE lead contract fell below the 16,800 yuan/mt level, causing a decline in the production enthusiasm of some smelters and even weakening expectations for an improvement in lead consumption in August. A large secondary lead smelter in north-west China plans to suspend production recently due to multiple factors such as a sluggish market, shortage of raw materials, and water use restrictions, which is the main reduction in August. In addition, enterprises that resumed production in July in east China and north China are expected to maintain stable production in August. The new capacity in south-west China, which encountered problems during equipment commissioning in June and postponed its commissioning, successfully passed equipment acceptance as scheduled by the end of July and is now in normal production. Its contribution to lead production is mainly reflected in August. Overall, the production of secondary lead in August may still maintain an upward trend.

Refined Zinc

In July 2025, SMM's China refined zinc production increased by 3% MoM and about 23% YoY. The cumulative YoY increase from January to July was over 4%, exceeding expectations. Among them, domestic zinc alloy production increased MoM in July. Entering July, the production of domestic smelters increased. In addition to regular maintenance in Shaanxi, Hunan, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu, Yunnan, Henan, Shaanxi, Hunan, Guangxi, and Qinghai focused on resuming production after maintenance. In addition, maintenance at some smelters in Inner Mongolia was delayed, and new capacity in Henan and Yunnan continued to be released, resulting in a significant overall increase in production.

SMM expects that domestic refined zinc production in August 2025 will increase by nearly 3% MoM and over 27% YoY. It is estimated that the cumulative YoY increase in production from January to August 2025 will be over 7%. In August, except for some smelters in Hunan undergoing maintenance, production at other smelters will be maintained or continue to increase. Among them, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, and Qinghai will focus on resuming production after maintenance, while new capacity in Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei, and Henan will continue to be released, and overall production may reach a new high.

Refined Tin

According to SMM's market-based processing data, in July 2025, China's refined tin production rebounded by 15.42% MoM, while YoY, it only increased by 0.09%. This production rebound was mainly influenced by multiple factors, including the resumption of production by some enterprises and the clearing of intermediate products. A detailed regional analysis is as follows:

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in June 2025, China's physical imports of tin concentrates reached 11,911 mt, experiencing a slight decline MoM. This reduction was due to a decrease in imports from African and Oceanian countries: imports from Nigeria, Bolivia, Australia, and other countries saw a significant decline compared to May, but the overall import volume remained relatively stable. The long-term gap caused by Myanmar's mining ban has not yet been fully filled. Although mining licenses in Myanmar's Wa region have recently been approved, the recovery of tin ore imports from Myanmar will still take a long time due to the impact of the rainy season and preparations for resuming production.

Yunnan Region: Raw material shortages remain severe: Smelter raw material inventories are generally below 30 days, competition for tin ore procurement is intense, processing costs for low-grade ores are high, and with rising electricity costs, enterprises' production willingness has declined. Some enterprises are preparing to halt production for maintenance and clear intermediate products from various smelting processes, resulting in a slight increase in monthly production.

Jiangxi Region:

Disruption in the scrap supply chain: The scrap tin recycling system is under pressure, and the market circulation of secondary materials has decreased by over 30%. The insufficient supply of crude tin directly leads to difficulties in increasing refined production. Some secondary tin enterprises have completed maintenance and are gradually resuming production, with overall production in the month rebounding somewhat.

Other Regions:

Dual raw material shortages: Both tin concentrates and scrap tin supplies are weak, with operating rates remaining below 70% of planned capacity for an extended period. Some enterprises plan maintenance, further suppressing production.

Based on SMM's calculations, it is expected that refined tin production will decline by 2.51% MoM in August. Driving factors: Some smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi are expected to halt production for maintenance.

Refined Nickel

In July 2025, SMM's refined nickel production increased by 3% MoM compared to June, up 14% YoY, and accumulated YoY growth reached 27%. The operating rate of domestic refined nickel enterprises was 61%. In July, the production pace of top-tier enterprises remained stable, with production increasing at a few individual smelters, driving a slight increase in overall refined nickel production. In terms of prices, the average spot price of electrolytic nickel in July was 122,237 yuan/mt, up 680 yuan/mt MoM from June, mainly driven by domestic "anti-rat race" competition macro sentiment, with spot prices following suit with a slight increase. The average premium/discount of Jinchuan nickel in July was 2,100 yuan/mt, down 500 yuan/mt MoM. The premium/discount of domestic mainstream electrodeposited nickel remained stable within the -100-300 yuan/mt range. Spot trading in July remained sluggish, with overall trading volume decreasing by 10%-20% MoM from June, mainly due to entering the off-season for consumption, with downstream procurement only meeting immediate needs. Additionally, influenced by macro sentiment in July, nickel prices fluctuated sharply, and downstream players mostly adopted a wait-and-see attitude.

It is expected that refined nickel production in August will increase by 1% MoM, with production plans of various smelters remaining stable and new capacity additions still pending.

Nickel Pig Iron (NPI)

In July 2025, the physical content of NPI production nationwide increased by 2.11% MoM, while the metal content decreased by 8.10% MoM. The physical content of NPI production nationwide increased in July, but the metal content decreased. In July, nickel ore prices in the Philippines fell to a certain extent. Meanwhile, as macro sentiment drove the recovery of stainless steel finished product prices, NPI prices also rose. However, despite a reduction in losses, domestic smelters still faced losses, and under continuous losses, most high-grade NPI smelters continued to operate at low capacity. The metal content of domestic high-grade NPI decreased by 7.87% MoM. On the other hand, stainless steel production downstream increased in July. Driven by the recovery of 200-series stainless steel production, both the physical content and metal content of domestic low-grade NPI increased MoM. Meanwhile, the average grade of NPI in July also decreased by 0.4 percentage points MoM. In summary, the physical content of domestic NPI increased MoM in July, but the metal content continued to decline.

Looking ahead, it is expected that with the approaching September-October peak season and the increase in production by downstream stainless steel enterprises, both the physical content and metal content of domestic NPI will stabilize and slightly rebound. SMM expects that the physical content of NPI production nationwide in August 2025 will increase by 1.73% MoM, and the metal content will increase by 1.09% MoM. Additionally, under the combined effects of smelters maintaining low-capacity operations and a certain recovery in consumption, SMM expects that the price center of high-grade NPI will continue to rise in August.

Indonesian NPI

In July 2025, the physical content of Indonesian NPI decreased by approximately 0.07% MoM, and the metal content of Indonesian NPI decreased by approximately 1.7% MoM. Entering July, the losses of Indonesian smelters had not significantly improved, and previously halted production lines had not yet resumed. Some Indonesian smelters continued to operate at low capacity. Under downward pressure on profits and grades, both the physical content and metal content of Indonesian NPI decreased in July.

It is expected that in August 2025, the physical content of Indonesian NPI will increase by 0.60% MoM, and the metal content of Indonesian NPI will increase by 16.35% MoM. With the approaching peak consumption season and the gradual improvement of losses, SMM expects that the operating rate of Indonesian smelters will recover to a certain extent.

Nickel Sulphate

According to SMM data, nickel sulphate production in July will reach 29,100 mt in metal content (equivalent to 132,200 mt), increasing by 17.30% MoM and 4.77% YoY. Demand side, driven by the recovery of orders from precursor enterprises and the release of stockpiling demand, the consumption of nickel salts has steadily increased. Supply side, due to the release of new capacity from some producers and the increased stockpiling of nickel sulphate by integrated enterprises, market supply has shown a significant increase. Looking ahead to the August market, affected by the tightening supply of raw materials, some nickel salt producers plan to continue production cuts or suspend production for maintenance, expecting a contraction in the supply of nickel sulphate. SMM forecasts that in August, the national production of nickel sulphate will pull back to 28,300 mt in metal content (128,900 mt in physical terms), down 2.53% MoM and 10.89% YoY.

Battery-grade manganese sulphate

In July 2025, the production of high-purity manganese sulphate increased significantly MoM and also achieved a certain increase YoY. On the supply side, manganese salt producers maintained an active production schedule this month. Affected by the destocking in the June market, some orders were transferred to July for execution, directly leading to a significant increase in the supply volume for the month, with a prominent MoM increase. Meanwhile, all producers steadily advanced the delivery of long-term contracts. The demand side exhibited structural characteristics: driven by favorable factors, the downstream ternary cathode precursor market saw an increase in restocking actions. Coupled with the approaching peak season of "September-October peak season", enterprises' stockpiling demand was released, leading to an increase in the execution volume of long-term contracts for high-purity manganese sulphate and boosting market vitality. However, spot order purchases remained low, and there was no phenomenon of inventory hoarding in the market. It is expected that in August 2025, the downstream ternary cathode precursor market will continue to maintain a stable growth trend, which is expected to drive the production of manganese salt producers to achieve another MoM increase, and also maintain a certain growth rate YoY.

Electrolytic Manganese Dioxide

In July 2025, the production of electrolytic manganese dioxide (EMD) showed a positive trend, with a slight MoM increase and a considerable YoY increase. Specifically, the performance of different types of products varied: the production of carbon-zinc type and alkaline manganese type MnO2 both showed an upward trend. This was mainly due to the stable downstream primary battery market, with new orders emerging continuously. Meanwhile, affected by macro policies, the market quotation of MnO2 rose slightly, jointly driving enterprises to increase their production schedules and promoting the increase in the production of these two types of products. However, the performance of MnO2 used for LMO battery was relatively inferior. Due to the fiercely competitive market for LMO in its downstream, most enterprises switched to using Mn3O4 with higher cost-effectiveness to control costs, leading to a decline in the demand for MnO2 used for LMO battery and difficulties in achieving an increase in production schedules. Looking ahead to August 2025, market expectations have adjusted. Given that the primary battery market is likely to remain in the traditional off-season, EMD producers mostly focus on destocking as their main goal, making it difficult for production to continue to increase. Overall, it is expected that the total production of electrolytic manganese dioxide (EMD) will show a slight downward trend in August.

Mn3O4

In July 2025, the production of Mn3O4 showed a steady growth trend, with a slight MoM increase and maintaining a certain YoY growth rate.​From the perspective of product grades, market performance exhibited differentiated characteristics: the increase in battery-grade Mn3O4 was relatively significant. This was mainly due to two factors. On the one hand, the LMO market was highly active in July, leading to an increased procurement demand for battery-grade Mn3O4, which greatly motivated relevant enterprises to boost production and increase planned production. On the other hand, the LMFP market was in the development stage, and Mn3O4 was still chosen as the manganese source in its production process, which also brought certain benefits to the battery-grade Mn3O4 market.​In contrast, electronic-grade Mn3O4 maintained a stable operation, with relatively small fluctuations in overall supply, mainly focusing on maintaining the original production level and fulfilling orders.​Looking ahead to August 2025, the market outlook is positive. With the LMO market expected to recover slightly again, it will further drive the demand for battery-grade Mn3O4 and lead to an increase in its planned production. Overall, it is expected that the total production of Mn3O4 in August will still show an upward trend, with the YoY growth rate remaining optimistic.​

High-carbon ferrochrome

According to SMM data, in July 2025, China's high-carbon ferrochrome production increased significantly, with a MoM growth rate of 7.52% and a YoY increase of 1.92%. Among them, the production in Inner Mongolia increased by 5.37% MoM; the production in south China regions such as Sichuan, Guizhou, and Guangxi increased by 18.53% MoM. The environmental protection checks in the northern Inner Mongolia region officially ended, and most manufacturers that had previously limited production to avoid peak electricity demand resumed normal production; in southern Sichuan and other regions, manufacturers took advantage of the electricity price advantages during the rainy season to control production costs, leading to a stable increase in ferrochrome production. In addition, the tender price of high-carbon ferrochrome for steel in July exceeded expectations and remained flat, having been fluctuating at highs for three consecutive months. To a certain extent, the profit margins of ferrochrome producers were guaranteed, production enthusiasm was boosted, and the increase in ferrochrome production was significant, reaching a peak in 2025. Meanwhile, overseas ferrochrome smelting operations were still in a state of significant production suspension, and the total import volume of ferrochrome decreased, leading to a continuous tight supply of ferrochrome in the first half of 2025; coupled with the slight recovery in the downstream stainless steel market, the implementation degree of production cut plans fell short of expectations, and the demand for ferrochrome relatively increased. Ferrochrome producers actively produced to make up for the supply-demand gap, and the ferrochrome market operated steadily.​

Looking ahead to August 2025, the production of high-carbon ferrochrome may continue to rise slightly. On July 23 and 25, TISCO and Tsingshan successively announced the tender prices for high-carbon ferrochrome procurement in August as 7,645 yuan/mt (50% metal content) and 7,995 yuan/mt (50% metal content), respectively, with a MoM decrease of 200 yuan and 100 yuan. The decline in steel procurement prices was better than expected, boosting confidence in the ferrochrome market and keeping production enthusiasm at a relatively high level. Additionally, stimulated by macro tailwinds such as the national anti-"rat race" competition policies and major infrastructure projects, the downstream stainless steel market strengthened, with futures and spot prices rising, market activity gradually recovering, and expectations for production cuts weakening. The demand for ferrochrome is expected to increase. Meanwhile, there is no news of overseas ferrochrome smelting resuming production, and the gap in import supply needs to be filled by domestic manufacturers, which is driving ferrochrome production to rise further.

Stainless Steel

According to SMM survey data, nationwide stainless steel production in July 2025 fell by 1.21% MoM and increased slightly by 0.21% YoY. By series, the production of 200-series stainless steel decreased by 1.97% MoM; the production of 300-series stainless steel decreased by 0.03% MoM; and the production of 400-series stainless steel decreased by 3.45% MoM.

In July, although overall stainless steel production continued to decline, the decline did not reach previous expectations. Despite the continuous pullback in stainless steel production in recent times, it remained at a relatively high level. Affected by the off-season, market demand failed to match the previous supply, leading to continued sluggish transactions and a subsequent decline in prices. The in-plant inventory, front-end warehouse inventory, and social inventory of stainless steel mills were all at high levels, with severe production losses, significantly reducing the willingness of steel mills to produce. News of production cuts spread frequently at the beginning of the month. However, with the continuous production cuts by stainless steel mills and the continuous stimulation of macro tailwinds, the SS futures market stopped falling and rebounded, with spot prices rising accordingly, and the production losses of steel mills improved to some extent. Additionally, stainless steel spot adopted a strategy of stable pricing and active shipping during the month, with stainless steel transactions significantly recovering in July, inventory pressure easing, and the intensity of production cuts by steel mills correspondingly weakening.

In terms of the performance of each series, the monthly production of 300-series stainless steel remained largely stable, while the production of 200-series and 400-series stainless steel both declined further. Driven by the strengthening of the SS futures market, the price of 300-series stainless steel strengthened accordingly, increasing the arbitrage space between futures and spot for traders and boosting market activity. Despite the simultaneous rise in high-grade NPI prices, stainless steel mills were still experiencing production losses for most of the month, but the degree of losses had eased. Due to the previous increase in production by steel mills, the supply of 400-series stainless steel was significantly oversupplied, with prices falling consecutively during the month. Coupled with the tight supply of high-carbon ferrochrome, making it difficult to reduce costs, the planned production of stainless steel mills decreased. The price of 200-series stainless steel had been falling continuously in the previous period, with significant production losses for stainless steel mills, and the planned production fell during the month. However, with the recent rise in the price of 200-series stainless steel, the production losses have been repaired, and it is expected that the production of 200-series stainless steel will increase in August.

Looking ahead to August, stainless steel production is expected to stop falling and rebound. Driven by the continuous favorable macro policies in recent times, stainless steel prices have broken away from the previous lows, and the production losses of stainless steel mills have improved. As prices strengthen, market confidence gradually recovers, and transactions show signs of recovery. Following active shipments in the July market, stainless steel mills have significantly reduced their earlier inventory pressure, leading to an increase in production enthusiasm. Additionally, as the traditional consumption off-season gradually approaches its end, the market is optimistic about the demand recovery during the "September-October peak season". Coupled with the recent implementation of China's "anti-rat race" competition policies and the increase in infrastructure investment, stainless steel is expected to achieve a steady recovery in August, driven by both favorable policies and demand expectations.

Electrolytic Manganese (EMM)

In July 2025, EMM production showed a dual decline, with a MoM reduction and a YoY decline as well. Behind the decrease in production this month was the simultaneous weakness in both supply and demand: downstream steel mills were in the traditional off-season, with sustained weak demand, and there were widespread production cuts in July. This directly affected upstream EMM plants, which adopted a cautious production attitude and actively narrowed their production schedules, mainly to ensure the delivery of existing long-term contracts. Meanwhile, due to the short production cycle of EMM, enterprises generally lacked the willingness to stock up. Coupled with the fact that some manganese plants that had halted production for maintenance had not yet resumed production, this further exacerbated the tight market supply, ultimately forming a pattern of weak supply and demand.

SiMn Alloy

In July 2025, China's total SiMn alloy production increased significantly, with a MoM slight increase and a YoY decline. From the perspective of regional production changes, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia regions experienced relatively significant growth rates, while Guangxi, Guizhou, Yunnan, and other regions maintained relatively stable production schedules, with a MoM slight increase as well.

The main reasons for the MoM increase in July production were as follows: Firstly, Inner Mongolia, relying on its stable production cost advantages, maintained a high operating rate, leading to an increase in production. In Ningxia, due to the reduction in electricity costs in July, production costs were effectively controlled, resulting in an increase in production. Southern regions such as Yunnan benefited from preferential electricity policies during the rainy season, leading to a decrease in production costs and stable growth in SiMn production. Secondly, the overall performance of the SiMn futures market was moderate this month, with a particularly high fluctuation at highs in the second half of the month. Futures and spot prices explored upward movements, gradually repairing the profits of SiMn alloy plants. The market atmosphere warmed up, and the production enthusiasm of factories increased accordingly. In addition, HBIS Group set the SiMn price at 5,850 yuan/mt in July, higher than the expected price, driving the market sentiment of SiMn and prompting an increase in SiMn production.

Looking ahead to August 2025, SiMn alloy production is expected to continue rising slightly. On one hand, the support from cost advantages remains, with Inner Mongolia and Ningxia continuing to enjoy cost advantages, while Yunnan and other regions are still in the rainy season electricity discount period, and most factories have indicated no intention to cut production. On the other hand, market confidence is playing a significant role in driving production. Influenced by the positive performance of SiMn futures in July, factories in both the north and south have plans to slightly increase production. Additionally, stimulated by macro tailwinds such as the national anti-"rat race" competition policies, the downstream stainless steel market has strengthened, market activity has gradually recovered, expectations for production cuts have weakened, and market demand for SiMn alloy is expected to increase.

Silicon Metal

According to SMM market exchanges, silicon metal production in July 2025 increased by 3.2% YoY but decreased by 30.6% MoM. The cumulative production of silicon metal from January to July 2025 decreased by 20.0% YoY.

In July, the supply trends of silicon metal production regions in the north and south diverged. The north was affected by large-scale production cuts at large plants in Xinjiang, which had a significant impact on monthly production supply, with Xinjiang's July production decreasing by nearly 27,000 mt MoM. Gansu also saw a slight decrease in monthly production due to maintenance of a small amount of capacity. In the south, Yunnan and Sichuan continued to drive production increases during the rainy season, with cumulative MoM increments in Sichuan and Yunnan reaching around 36,000 mt.

Currently, silicon metal producers are concentrated in Xinjiang, Sichuan, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Gansu. Shaanxi, Guizhou, and Fujian are basically in a complete shutdown state. In August, the production schedule for silicon metal in Sichuan and Yunnan is expected to continue increasing, while the resumption of production at large plants in Xinjiang is progressing slowly, and the expected increase in supply may fall short of expectations. The production schedule for silicon metal is expected to increase to around 360,000-370,000 mt.

Polysilicon

In July, domestic polysilicon production increased slightly MoM compared to June, with a growth rate of approximately 5.2%. The main increment came from the ramp-up of resumed production capacity in Yunnan. In August, polysilicon production is expected to increase significantly, with further ramp-up in Yunnan and new production/resumption increments from Sichuan and Qinghai. Some polysilicon bases have commenced operations during the rainy season, and the recovery of polysilicon prices has further stimulated enterprises' production expectations.

PV Modules

In July, various module enterprises slightly increased their production, with output rising by approximately 1.6% MoM. Recently, the jump initially and then pull back of module prices has had a certain impact on enterprises' production enthusiasm. Distributed demand has shown marginal improvement but remains in a trough overall, while centralised demand from state-owned enterprises still exhibits wait-and-see and pressure-applying behaviors. In terms of size and technology type, the production schedule and shipments of large-sized modules, led by HJT, have been relatively good. Overall, it is expected that output will decrease slightly MoM in August.

Solar Cells

In July, the battery market remained stable with slight increases. Global solar cell production within the sample was 58.19 GW, increasing by 3% MoM compared to June. This was mainly due to the impact of international trade policies, which led overseas customers to step up stockpiling, resulting in a significant increase in demand. This provided strong support for producer orders in the second half of July. By size, the proportion of large-size solar cell production schedules continued to rise to meet the terminal's requirements for higher single-watt power generation efficiency/cost.

PV Film

In July, the total production schedule of the PV film industry decreased by 2.57% MoM. The main reason was that module production schedules on the demand side fell short of expectations, leading to a decline in demand and a subsequent drop in the overall operating rate of film producers, resulting in a decrease in film production. In August, module production schedules continued to show a downward trend, with demand remaining weak. It is expected that film production will continue to fall in August.

PV-grade EVA

In July, the production schedule of PV-grade EVA increased by 5.59% MoM. The main reason was that some petrochemical companies completed maintenance and some shifted production to PV-grade EVA. According to SMM, demand is expected to continue to decline in August, with downstream film enterprises operating at a low overall rate. However, due to the end of maintenance cycles at some petrochemical companies and expectations for PV-grade EVA production schedules, it is expected that the production of PV-grade EVA will increase in August.

PV Glass

In July, the monthly production of domestic PV glass began to decline, with a slight decrease of 0.69% MoM from June. Although the number of production days for domestic PV glass increased by 1 day in July, and some furnaces increased their operating capacity after technological transformation, the number of blocked and cold-repaired furnaces for domestic PV glass increased in July, resulting in an overall decline in production. In terms of August supply, due to the impact of an increase in PV glass production cuts in the previous period, glass enterprises still expect production cuts in August, with an estimated decrease in operating rates of nearly 1.81% MoM from July.

DMC

In July, the domestic production of silicone DMC decreased by 4.5% MoM and 1.2% YoY from June. In July, affected by a sudden accident, maintenance, and production cuts at monomer plants in Shandong and monomer plants in south-west China, the overall operating capacity decreased, leading to a decline in silicone production. In terms of subsequent operating rates, although some domestic monomer enterprises still operated at a relatively low load in August, the overall impact was limited. It is estimated that silicone production will increase by 5.5% MoM from July in August.

Magnesium Ingot

According to SMM data, in July 2025, China's primary magnesium production decreased by 4.50% MoM and increased by 1.82% YoY, with the operating rate dropping to 61.86%.

After two consecutive months of increase, primary magnesium production in July showed a slight decline, mainly due to the following reasons: 1. High temperatures in production workshops made it difficult for employees to work, leading to an increase in the frequency of leave requests and extended smelting cycles. These situations resulted in a slight decrease in production at nearly 70% of primary magnesium smelters nationwide. 2. Primary magnesium smelters in the main producing areas are normally conducting maintenance on halted equipment. According to SMM statistics, a total of four smelters underwent maintenance shutdowns in July. 3. Concentrated rainfall in the main producing areas in late July led to a short-term decrease in daily production at some magnesium plants in the main producing areas. However, it is noteworthy that three primary magnesium smelters resumed production and produced magnesium ingots in July. As a result, primary magnesium production increased. Overall, the decrease in primary magnesium production outweighed the increase, leading to a downward trend in nationwide primary magnesium production.

According to an SMM survey, currently, five primary magnesium smelters in the main producing areas have reported plans for maintenance shutdowns in August. Additionally, three primary magnesium smelters that underwent maintenance in July are expected to resume production in August, while the specific resumption times for other previously halted primary magnesium smelters remain undetermined. SMM will continue to monitor the situation. Overall, domestic primary magnesium smelter production is expected to decrease slightly in August.

Magnesium Alloy

SMM data shows that China's magnesium alloy production in July 2025 decreased by 2.69% MoM and increased by 2.83% YoY, with the magnesium alloy operating rate dropping to 57.44% in July.

Magnesium alloy production maintained a downward trend in July. Currently, the decrease in magnesium alloy production is mainly due to a spontaneous reduction in the operating rate by magnesium alloy manufacturers triggered by weak demand. The main reasons for the decrease in magnesium alloy production are as follows: Firstly, with the change in seasonal factors, the market has exhibited characteristics of the off-season, and procurement volumes have recently pulled back. Secondly, the magnesium alloy market has recently entered a fatigue period after concentrated rush to export, leading to a decline in overseas orders for magnesium alloy. As a result, some magnesium alloy manufacturers have reduced their operating rates.

Looking ahead to August, as mainstream producers continue to intensify market promotion efforts, the cost-effectiveness advantage of magnesium alloy materials is gradually gaining widespread recognition in the industry. This trend has prompted some die-casting enterprises to begin adjusting their production processes and gradually replacing aluminum alloy with magnesium alloy. Although this material substitution has not yet generated large-scale orders, it has driven an overall mild increase in market demand for magnesium alloy, which will bring about a certain degree of production growth expectations. Considering the current changes in the market supply-demand pattern, the industry generally expects magnesium alloy production to maintain stable operation in August.

Magnesium Powder

According to SMM data, China's magnesium powder production in July 2025 fluctuated rangebound, with a 1.02% MoM increase.

Market differentiation is evident in the industry, with overall dual pressures from domestic and external demand. The domestic consumer market remains sluggish, and the shrinking procurement demand from international steel enterprises has led to a continuous decline in export orders for several months. However, some small and medium-sized producers have actively reduced their capacity utilization rates, while leading manufacturers have increased their operating levels due to concentrated order advantages.

Announcement No. 17 (2025) of the State Taxation Administration (issued on July 7, 2025) has made significant revisions to the "Monthly (Quarterly) Advance Tax Declaration Form for Corporate Income Tax (Category A)", with the seventh article concerning regulations on export agency declarations being viewed by the industry as a crucial measure to end the "export under false invoices" model. This regulation will officially come into effect on October 1, 2025, marking the beginning of a strong regulatory era for the long-standing "export under false invoices" chaos in the foreign trade sector. Influenced by this, the magnesium powder market may experience an export rush in August and September. Looking ahead to August, the magnesium powder industry is likely to see a slight increase in production.

Titanium Dioxide

According to SMM data, China's titanium dioxide production in July 2025 decreased by 1.06% MoM.

This month, titanium dioxide producers continued to maintain production cuts in response to the continuous shrinkage of market demand. By actively regulating capacity, they effectively alleviated inventory pressure, and some previously shut-down producers have planned to resume production next month. Current production mainly ensures the fulfillment of long-term contracts for core long-established customers. Producers' inventories are generally controlled at a reasonable level of around one month, basically achieving a dynamic balance between production and sales. It is worth noting that some large enterprises have initiated routine maintenance plans this month, further reducing market supply. On the demand side, the overall performance of the coating industry continues to fall short of expectations, coupled with the impact of traditional summer off-season factors, resulting in generally low purchase willingness among end-users. The market generally expects that the timing of market recovery may be postponed to September.

Sponge Titanium

According to SMM data, China's sponge titanium production in July 2025 increased by 2.61% MoM.

This month, the sponge titanium market maintained a stable production trend, but due to the continuous rise in prices, the industry's capacity still showed an expansion trend for the year. Currently, it is the traditional summer off-season for demand, with downstream procurement slowing down, and the market's supply-demand pattern gradually shifting towards oversupply. According to the latest SMM survey, in response to the industry's anti-"rat race" competition policy guidance, some mainstream producers have planned to implement a 30% production cut in Q3, and it is expected that market supply will significantly contract in August. Currently, the industry's overall inventory level continues to rise, and this proactive production cut is expected to accelerate the inventory digestion process, creating favorable conditions for subsequent price stabilization and recovery.

Light Rare Earths

In July, the production of Pr-Nd oxide and Pr-Nd alloy increased slightly MoM. The increase in Pr-Nd oxide mainly came from further increases in the operating rates of scrap recycling enterprises, with the increase mainly concentrated in Shandong and Jiangxi provinces. The main increase in Pr-Nd alloy came from the implementation of production increase plans by some metal enterprises. According to SMM, influenced by the favorable order situation for Pr-Nd alloy, the operating rates of metal plants have increased. As downstream orders increased, the operating rates of leading metal plants improved, though some small and medium-sized plants reduced production slightly due to poor order volumes. Meanwhile, in Sichuan, some metal enterprises halted furnaces and cut production in response to high temperatures. Overall, the total production of Pr-Nd alloy in July increased by 1.64% MoM, while the production of Pr-Nd oxide rose by 5% MoM. Looking ahead to August, with downstream magnetic material plants expected to receive more orders, the supply of rare earth raw materials is anticipated to tighten, providing some support for Pr-Nd prices.

Medium-heavy Rare Earth

The growth in medium-heavy rare earth oxide production in July was mainly driven by two interrelated factors. Firstly, scrap recycling enterprises significantly increased their operating rates amid rising rare earth oxide prices, boosting market supply. Prices for medium-heavy rare earth products such as dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide rose notably in July, improving the profitability outlook for scrap recycling enterprises and prompting them to increase scrap procurement and processing, thereby directly driving up medium-heavy rare earth oxide production. Secondly, despite poor monthly sales of ion-adsorption rare earth ore, raw ore separation enterprises did not significantly reduce their operating rates due to holding certain inventories. Under the combined influence of these factors, medium-heavy rare earth oxide production continued to grow MoM this month.

NdFeB

In July 2025, China's NdFeB magnetic material production increased by 7.15% MoM. Limited by the rapid rise in Pr-Nd oxide and metal prices this month, NdFeB prices showed a short-term upward trend in July, stimulating short-term stockpiling trends among downstream enterprises. Market feedback indicates that while there has been a general increase in inquiries from downstream clients, actual trading volumes have not risen correspondingly, showing a certain degree of "more inquiries, fewer purchases" phenomenon.

There are three reasons for this. Firstly, wait-and-see sentiment dominates: As the month-end approaches, some terminal clients have begun planning for the next period's stockpiling, but in the face of continuously rising Pr-Nd raw material prices and the subsequent slight increase in magnetic material prices, they generally hold a strong wait-and-see attitude, with relatively conservative purchasing behavior and no significant urgent demand being released. This directly led to no sharp increase in overall magnetic material deliveries in July.

Secondly, order structure differentiation: New overseas orders have shown a clear concentration effect among leading enterprises, mainly flowing to large magnetic material enterprises, limiting the new overseas orders available to medium and small magnetic material enterprises.

Thirdly, price fluctuations inhibit purchasing: Given the significant increase in recent Pr-Nd raw material price fluctuations, some domestic terminal clients (especially small and medium-sized enterprises) have halted or significantly slowed down their magnetic material purchasing pace based on risk control considerations, instead prioritizing the digestion of existing inventories. This strategy resulted in low enthusiasm for inquiry orders, ultimately leading to a slight MoM increase in magnetic material production in July. However, in the long term, sustained support from end-use demand, the approaching end of the traditional off-season for demand, coupled with factors such as new energy enterprises striving for increased output in H2, the recovery in demand for consumer goods like air conditioners and mobile phones during the summer vacation, jointly boosted the domestic magnetic material market demand, ultimately driving up overall transaction activity.

Molybdenum Concentrate

According to SMM data, China's molybdenum concentrate production in July 2025 increased by 2.7% MoM and 1.3% YoY. The total domestic molybdenum concentrate production from January to July increased by 4.8% YoY.

In July, molybdenum concentrate enterprises in Henan and Heilongjiang that had undergone maintenance earlier resumed full-capacity production, with production increasing MoM. Additionally, a mine in Jilin expanded production in July, resulting in an increase in output compared to the previous period. At month-end, a mine in Inner Mongolia halted production due to a sudden accident, affecting part of the molybdenum concentrate output, but the overall impact was limited. Subsequent attention should be paid to the enterprise's production resumption. In July, due to stable upstream and downstream production and sales, molybdenum concentrate inventory within the industry remained low. Coupled with the sudden production halt of a copper-molybdenum mine enterprise in Inner Mongolia at month-end, concerns over molybdenum concentrate supply intensified. At month-end, the tender prices of mainstream mines rose rapidly, with the mainstream transaction prices of 45%-50% molybdenum concentrate reaching 4,330-4,365 yuan/mtu, stimulating the willingness to sell of other molybdenum concentrate enterprises.

Entering August, the profitability of the domestic molybdenum concentrate industry is objective, and enterprises' willingness to voluntarily halt production for maintenance has decreased. However, considering that a certain copper-molybdenum mine in Inner Mongolia may be difficult to resume production in the short term, affecting part of the molybdenum concentrate supply in August, it is expected that the total domestic molybdenum concentrate production in August may show a slight decrease.

Ferromolybdenum

According to SMM statistics, China's ferromolybdenum production in July 2025 decreased by approximately 2.8% MoM and increased by 12.5% YoY.

In July, the domestic ferromolybdenum market price fluctuated at highs, with stable demand from downstream sectors such as stainless steel. Steel tenders exceeded 13,000 mt, and market transactions were active. However, due to the high fluctuation of the molybdenum concentrate market, ferromolybdenum faced significant cost pressure, with most enterprises experiencing an inverted price structure. Enterprises had insufficient willingness to take orders at low prices, and some enterprises reduced their capacity, resulting in a slight decline in production.

Entering August, the production schedule of domestic stainless steel and other molybdenum-containing steel sectors remains stable MoM, and downstream demand for molybdenum is relatively stable. However, due to the low inventory of raw materials at ferromolybdenum plants and mines, and the significant increase in mine prices at the end of July, some enterprises' purchase willingness has decreased, or there may be passive production cuts due to insufficient raw material inventory. It is expected that domestic ferromolybdenum production in August will have little growth expectation.

Ammonium Paratungstate

According to SMM statistics, China's APT (ammonium paratungstate) production in July 2025 decreased by approximately 6% MoM and increased by 3.8% YoY.

In July, the domestic tungsten concentrate market saw a significant surge. With poor profitability in the ammonium paratungstate (APT) industry, some enterprises suspended taking spot orders and mainly focused on shipments under long-term contracts. Industry operations were reduced due to profitability issues. Additionally, some APT enterprises in Jiangxi and other regions underwent maintenance during the month, further tightening market production.

Entering August, the tungsten concentrate market remains tight, with difficulties in restocking. Tungsten concentrate prices are unlikely to experience a pullback, and profitability recovery in the APT industry remains challenging. Enterprises have low enthusiasm for production, and production is expected to remain largely stable.

Silver

In July 2025, silver production continued its upward trend, increasing by approximately 1.4% MoM from June. Smelters that underwent maintenance in June resumed operations as scheduled in July. The production recovery and increase at a large-scale smelter in Guangxi after maintenance contributed significantly to the production growth. A smelter in Hunan increased its silver production in July due to adjustments in raw material grade. Additionally, copper, lead, and zinc smelters in Shaanxi, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, and other regions saw marginal increases in associated silver production. On the reduction side, the impact was mainly from maintenance at lead smelters. A partial maintenance at a lead smelter in Henan led to a decline in silver anode slime raw material supply, resulting in a slight decrease in July production. Another lead smelter experienced a decline in silver production due to the suspension of precious and rare metal production lines during routine maintenance in June-July, which extended into early July.

Entering August, despite the increase brought by the production recovery at smelters—the previously maintained smelter in Henan is expected to resume and increase production, and the precious and rare metal workshop of a lead smelter in Inner Mongolia that underwent routine maintenance in July will gradually resume full production in August, with a slight increase in production expected—the production of smelters that saw a slight increase in July may not remain stable in August. The risk of silver prices jumping initially and then pulling back makes smelters cautious in purchasing high-grade silver-bearing raw materials during the stockpiling process. SMM expects that refined silver production in August may decline slightly by 0.68%.

Silver Nitrate

In July 2025, silver nitrate production increased by approximately 10% MoM. Apart from the low production base in June, the better-than-expected operations of PV terminal solar cells in mid-to-late July contributed to the growth. Some medium-to-large-scale solar cell enterprises mentioned expanding their paste procurement needs due to concentrated order delivery requirements, benefiting the operations of some silver powder and silver nitrate manufacturers. Silver nitrate plant orders varied significantly in July. Some plants reduced operations due to processing fees approaching losses or customer payment term requirements, but downstream consumption showed overall improvement compared to June, maintaining positive growth in silver nitrate operations. Entering August, silver nitrate enterprises have mixed expectations for orders, with production expected to remain largely stable or decline slightly in August compared to July.

MoM increase in silver nitrate production in July Notes: SMM's MoM increase in silver nitrate production in July 2025 expanded due to new adjustments involving enterprises in H2. Before the adjustment, silver nitrate production in June was 680 mt, and in July it was 759 mt, representing an MoM increase of 11.62%. After the sample adjustment, silver nitrate production in June was 820 mt, and in July it was 909 mt, representing an MoM increase of 10.85%.

(The June production data in the database remains 680 mt, while the July production data is 909 mt after the sample adjustment. Due to the fact that historical June data will not be synchronously modified, the MoM increase in July production in the SMM database is amplified.)

Antimony ingot

According to SMM's assessment, in July 2025, China's antimony ingot production (including antimony ingot, crude antimony conversion, antimony cathode, etc.) experienced a significant MoM decline of over 20%, reaching approximately 24.5%. Specifically, among the 33 surveyed producers assessed by SMM, 17 producers halted production, an increase of 2 from the previous month; 14 producers reduced production, a decrease of 1 from the previous month; and 2 producers maintained normal production levels, a decrease of 1 from the previous month. In terms of antimony ingot production, after overall production fell below 5,000 mt in June, it continued to decline sharply to below 4,000 mt in July. Following a significant drop in antimony production in June, July saw another substantial decline. Many market participants consider this a normal phenomenon. Currently, overseas ore sources still cannot enter the domestic market in large quantities, and the pace of domestic mine shutdowns is accelerating. The current situation of high antimony ore prices and limited supply is evident in some major mining areas in the north and south. Market participants indicated that a large number of producers entered maintenance and shutdowns, limiting production, starting from June. In July, more than half of the producers were in shutdown status. With raw materials becoming increasingly scarce in the future, it is expected that more producers will halt or cut production. Market participants predict that the possibility of a rebound and increase in China's national antimony ingot production in August 2025 compared to July is relatively small, and it is more likely to maintain stability or even continue to decline slightly.

Notes: Since May 2022, SMM has been publishing its assessed production of antimony ingot (including antimony ingot, crude antimony conversion, antimony cathode, etc.) nationwide. Benefiting from SMM's high coverage rate in the antimony industry, SMM surveyed a total of 33 antimony ingot producers, distributed across 8 provinces nationwide, with a total sample capacity exceeding 20,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate of over 99%.

Sodium pyroantimonate

According to SMM's assessment, in July 2025, China's first-grade sodium pyroantimonate production will experience a slight MoM decline of approximately 2.3% compared to the previous month. After experiencing significant production fluctuations for several consecutive months, China's first-grade sodium pyroantimonate production has slightly pulled back again after rebounding in June, prompting many market participants to marvel at the ever-changing market. However, many market participants consider this a normal phenomenon, as traditionally July-August is the off-season for orders at PV glass factories. The reduction in production by many manufacturers in July is also related to the decrease in orders, and it remains uncertain whether this situation will persist into August. Looking at the detailed data, among the 13 survey respondents of SMM, 3 manufacturers were in shutdown or commissioning status in July, while 4 sodium pyroantimonate manufacturers experienced a certain increase in production, but 3 manufacturers also saw a significant decline in production. As a result, the overall production of first-grade sodium pyroantimonate in China in July declined slightly. Market participants expect that the possibility of a significant decline in nationwide sodium pyroantimonate production in August compared to July is relatively small, and the possibility of it remaining flat or continuing to decline slightly is greater.

Note: Since July 2023, SMM has been publishing its nationwide sodium pyroantimonate production assessment. Benefiting from SMM's high coverage rate of the antimony industry, SMM surveyed a total of 13 sodium pyroantimonate producers, distributed across 6 provinces nationwide, with a total sample capacity exceeding 86,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate as high as 99%.

Refined Bismuth

According to SMM's assessment, China's refined bismuth production in July 2025 is expected to decline slightly by about 1.4% MoM compared to nationwide refined bismuth production in June. After a sudden and significant decline in bismuth production in May, the production has maintained a downward trend for two consecutive months, which is also within the expectations of many market participants. Market participants indicate that due to the ongoing tight supply of raw materials and recent environmental protection concerns, it is reasonable for manufacturers' production to stagnate or even continue to decline. From the recent competition for bismuth raw materials in the market, many bismuth raw materials have been traded at high prices, with the transaction price of a recent batch of bismuth concentrate even approaching the price of finished products, indicating fierce competition for raw materials in the market. From the production situation of manufacturers, some are still in equipment maintenance, and many manufacturers' production shows a stable or slightly declining trend, resulting in a continued decline in overall domestic production compared to June, but no longer as significant as the previous month. Looking at the detailed data, among the 24 survey respondents of SMM, none of the manufacturers saw a significant increase in production in July, but 2 manufacturers resumed production after completing maintenance. There were 4 manufacturers with a significant decline in production, while the production of the remaining manufacturers remained relatively unchanged. Many market participants expect that entering August, it will be difficult to alleviate the tight supply of raw materials for bismuth manufacturers nationwide. Manufacturers are currently competing fiercely for production raw materials such as bismuth concentrate, and it is highly likely that production will continue to be affected. The possibility of refined bismuth production remaining flat or continuing to decline slightly is greater, and the possibility of another significant decline is relatively small.

Note: Since October 2022, SMM has been publishing its nationwide refined bismuth production assessment. Thanks to SMM's high coverage rate of the bismuth industry, SMM surveyed a total of 24 refined bismuth producers distributed across 8 provinces nationwide, with a total sample capacity exceeding 50,000 mt and a capacity coverage rate as high as over 99%.

Lithium Carbonate

In July 2025, the domestic monthly total production of lithium carbonate exceeded the 80,000 mt mark for the first time, with a 4% MoM increase and a significant 26% YoY increase. The main driving force behind the production growth was the emergence of hedging opportunities in the futures market, prompting lithium chemical plants with previously low operating rates to gradually resume production, significantly boosting the industry's overall supply capacity.

By raw material type: Spodumene saw significant increases, while lepidolite and salt lake-derived lithium carbonate production dropped back slightly.

Lithium Carbonate Derived from Spodumene: Total production in July increased by 14% MoM. On the one hand, production lines at some first- and second-tier lithium chemical plants resumed operations, contributing to the increase; on the other hand, non-integrated lithium chemical plants increased their operating rates driven by profits from futures hedging, pushing production growth.

Lithium Carbonate Derived from Lepidolite: Total production decreased by 8% MoM. Concerns arose in the market due to mining license issues at mines in Jiangxi, but the relevant mines are currently maintaining normal production. A leading lithium chemical plant's production in July did not reach the previous peak due to production line maintenance, leading to a certain decline in overall lepidolite-derived lithium carbonate production.

Lithium Carbonate Derived from Salt Lake: Total production decreased by 2% MoM, mainly due to production reductions and suspensions at some salt lake enterprises caused by mining issues, while the remaining enterprises maintained stable production under favorable weather conditions.

Lithium Carbonate from Recycling: Total production in July increased by 10% MoM, mainly benefiting from the rise in lithium carbonate prices, which boosted the production enthusiasm of recycling enterprises. However, the total production volume remains relatively weak.

Outlook for August: Uncertainty remains in Jiangxi mines, but overall production is expected to maintain growth.

The lithium carbonate market in August still faces uncertainties regarding mining policies in Jiangxi. If extreme situations occur (such as mine shutdowns), relevant lithium chemical plants can still rely on inventories and spot order purchases to maintain a small amount of production. In addition, supported by hedging profits at the spodumene end and the expectation of some flexible production lines continuing to ramp up, it is expected that the total production of lithium carbonate in August will still have growth potential. Subsequent attention should be paid to the specific implementation of mining policies in Jiangxi.

Lithium Hydroxide

SMM data shows that domestic lithium hydroxide production in July increased slightly MoM but decreased by 22% YoY. On the smelting side, orders for ternary cathode materials were slightly better than expected, with downstream and end-user cargo pick-up increasing slightly. Some manufacturers produced based on sales, leading to an increase in output. Coupled with new production capacity being in the ramp-up stage, smelting-side production increased by 2% MoM. On the causticisation side, due to a slight recovery in orders at some enterprises, output increased by 8% MoM.

Looking ahead to August, due to limited market expectations for incremental growth, some lithium chemical plants plan to switch their flexible production lines to produce lithium carbonate, and production at the smelting end is expected to drop back slightly. Meanwhile, as some causticisation enterprises plan to halt production, production at the causticisation end will also decrease. Overall, the total production of lithium hydroxide in August is expected to decline by 5% MoM and 24% YoY.

Cobalt sulphate

In July 2025, SMM's cobalt sulphate production decreased by 9.56% MoM and increased by 1.01% YoY.

From the perspective of raw material sources for production, cobalt intermediate products accounted for approximately 53%, MHP accounted for about 18%, and recycled materials accounted for roughly 29%. Due to the extension of the DRC's ban, the price of cobalt intermediate products continues to rise, and the inventory of cobalt intermediate product raw materials at smelters gradually decreases. Currently, recycled materials and MHP are gradually squeezing out cobalt intermediate products.

In terms of supply, the spot price of cobalt sulphate in July generally showed a continuous upward trend. However, due to the even larger increase in cobalt intermediate products, the production cost of cobalt sulphate further inverted. Some cobalt sulphate smelters, due to weak production economics or shortages of raw material inventory, still chose to reduce cobalt sulphate production and switch to producing other cobalt products with better economics.

From the demand side, July remained in the off-season for consumption, and orders from downstream ternary and Co3O4 enterprises did not show significant improvement. They temporarily chose to wait and see in the market, mainly digesting previous inventory. A few enterprises with relatively short days of raw material inventory focused on just-in-time procurement, and demand was relatively stable.

It is expected that by August, the issue of tight raw material supply for cobalt intermediate products will become more prominent. Smelters' production schedules will become more cautious, and some enterprises with relatively limited inventory will continue to choose to cut production of cobalt sulphate or even halt production. It is expected that cobalt sulphate production schedules in August will decrease by 3.57% MoM.

Co3O4

In July 2025, Co3O4 production dropped back slightly by 2% MoM but still achieved a significant growth of 25% YoY. On the supply side, producers are facing pressure from tightening raw material supply, leading some factories to successively take measures such as halting or cutting production, thus decreasing the self-production ratio. To cope with price fluctuations and raw material shortages, enterprises have increased the proportion of toll processing, which has now exceeded 50%. On the demand side, the growth in demand from downstream application areas has driven the procurement of Co3O4. Looking ahead to August, it is expected that the tight raw material supply situation will further intensify. Against this backdrop, the proportion of toll processing and long-term agreement orders for Co3O4 enterprises will continue to increase, while the demand space in the spot market (spot orders) will continue to be squeezed. Due to raw material shortages and adjustments in production modes, the overall production schedules of Co3O4 enterprises are expected to become even tighter. Based on comprehensive analysis, the overall market supply in August is expected to continue its downward trend, with a projected MoM decline expanding to around 7%.

Ternary cathode precursor

In July 2025, SMM's production of ternary cathode precursors showed a steady growth trend, with a MoM increase of 5.71% and a YoY increase of 5.52%. From the perspective of product series structure, the market landscape remained stable, with the 5-series precursor accounting for 15.65%, the 6-series product maintaining a dominant position with a 42.89% share, and the 8-series and 9-series occupying market shares of 27.39% and 9.96%, respectively. In the power battery application sector, the 6-series product continued to be the mainstream choice in the domestic power market, while the overseas power market remained dominated by high-nickel products. Notably, the demand for 9-series products has recently shown an upward trend, slightly squeezing the market share of 8-series materials. In the consumer electronics market, with increased attention to high-nickel products, the market share of 5-series products has slightly declined. Currently, the growth trend of ternary cathode precursor production is favorable, with the main driving factors including: firstly, after producers focused on destocking in June due to the semi-annual period, the industry entered a phased restocking cycle in July; secondly, in anticipation of the traditional auto sales "September-October peak season," precursor producers initiated early stockpiling; thirdly, the market's bullish expectations on nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate prices prompted some downstream cathode material producers to adopt early procurement strategies, resulting in a front-load orders effect. Looking ahead to August, although the traditional peak season is approaching, due to the digestion of some front-load orders in July, the production growth rate is expected to slow down, with a projected MoM increase of 5.4%.

Ternary cathode material

In July 2025, SMM's production of ternary cathode materials continued its growth trend, with a MoM increase of 5.75% and a significant YoY increase of 16.65%. The industry's overall operating rate rebounded to 45%, slightly higher than that in June. From the perspective of product structure, the 5-series material accounted for 15.05%, the 6-series material maintained a leading position with a 36.61% share, and the 8-series and 9-series occupied market shares of 29.06% and 17.37%, respectively. As the mainstream product in the domestic power battery market, the 6-series material's market share continued to expand, while the overseas market remained dominated by high-nickel products, with notable demand growth for 9-series products, forming a certain substitution for 8-series materials. In the power battery market, ternary cathode material orders concentrated on leading producers, and with the traditional auto sales "September-October peak season" approaching, cathode material producers have initiated stockpiling. In the consumer electronics market, based on expectations of raw material price increases, some battery cell manufacturers adopted early procurement strategies, and this front-load orders effect effectively boosted the demand for cathode materials. Additionally, the demand gap created by some battery cell manufacturers exiting the market due to the previous power bank recall incident prompted other producers to accelerate market expansion, further stimulating order growth. Looking ahead to August, as some front-loaded orders were digested in July, ternary cathode material production is expected to slow down moderately, with a projected MoM increase of 3.07%.

Iron phosphate

Domestic iron phosphate production rose 9% MoM and surged 70% YoY in July. Supply side, production increments were significant among iron phosphate producers: integrated enterprises saw notable growth in supporting iron phosphate output, while capacity expansions at some manufacturers also boosted production. However, the concentrated release of new capacity squeezed shipments from existing producers, leading to underperformance at some firms. Demand side, downstream LFP demand grew markedly in July, with buyers favoring cost-effective iron phosphate offering lower prices and superior quality. Market expectations for iron phosphate prices weakened, but quality requirements continued to rise. Cost side, industrial-grade MAP prices pulled back significantly from June levels amid off-season consumption, while ferrous sulphate prices kept climbing, substantially increasing iron source cost pressure for producers. In August, with new capacity continuing to come online, iron phosphate production is expected to grow further, projected up 3% MoM and 56% YoY.

LFP

China's LFP material production increased approximately 1.86% MoM and 36% YoY in July, with industry operating rates around 58%. As the traditional off-season for auto sales, downstream battery cell manufacturers showed generally weak demand. Leading material producers maintained relatively stable operating rates overall, though some second- and third-tier manufacturers saw production declines, mainly due to product pricing and downstream demand adjustments. By application segment, power battery orders at material producers showed signs of reduction, partly because production line upgrades at certain cell manufacturers affected normal output, decreasing corresponding cathode material orders, and partly due to generally sluggish auto sales performance in the industry. August being the traditional auto sales off-season contributed to weaker power cell production in July. Conversely, ESS material orders performed well, supported by the 90-day delay in US reciprocal tariff hikes keeping American orders active, coupled with supportive policies in Eastern Europe and other overseas markets boosting household ESS installations. Domestically, ESS projects continued to see solid demand growth driven by local government policies, resulting in slight LFP material production growth in July. Looking ahead to August, power battery segment will see early stockpiling for the September-October peak season, while ESS markets maintain normal growth momentum, prompting LFP cathode material producers to accelerate production lines accordingly.

LCO

In July 2025, LCO production showed significant growth, up 7% MoM and 30% YoY. Demand side, 3C consumer market demand increased. Starting from September, brands will enter an intensive new product launch season, coupled with the approaching traditional September-October peak season, downstream end-users stockpiled for production. Additionally, the market generally held bullish expectations for future LCO prices, prompting some companies to place orders in advance to build inventory. Supply side, LCO cathode producers widely adopted the "produce based on sales" strategy, correspondingly raising operating rates based on increased downstream procurement demand. Looking ahead to August, downstream demand is expected to remain stable with slight growth. Against this backdrop, LCO producers may continue the "produce based on sales" strategy, with monthly output projected to achieve a slight MoM increase of about 1%.

LMO

In July 2025, LMO production showed dual growth, continuing its upward trend MoM while also demonstrating outstanding YoY growth rate. Supply side, the market exhibited phased characteristics this month: most producers maintained stable production schedules in early month; from mid-month, lithium carbonate raw material prices surged significantly, injecting positive sentiment into the market and directly driving concentrated production increase plans by LMO producers in late month, subsequently expanding supply scale. Demand side showed subtle changes under off-season characteristics: downstream battery cell manufacturers' procurement focused on rigid demand, with overall market activity remaining low. However, influenced by concerns over continued price increases in the future market, some companies engaged in small-scale stockpiling, preventing drastic fluctuations on the demand side. Looking ahead to August 2025, market expectations remain positive: as downstream market activity is expected to recover, inquiries may gradually increase, further stimulating LMO producers' production enthusiasm. Driven by this, LMO supply is projected to achieve MoM growth again, with YoY growth rate maintaining an expansion trend.

*Survey Methodology

SMM production surveys are conducted by professional analysts through methods such as phone calls and field visits, tracking Chinese metal producers monthly and issuing China metal production reports accordingly.

During the survey process, basic sample coverage ratio is ensured and continuously expanded; meanwhile, detailed factors including capacity scale, geographical distribution, and enterprise nature are considered to reasonably select and allocate samples, making each sub-item data equally representative.

At month-end, results are published through official channels including the SMM website (www.smm.cn), WeChat subscription account (Today's Nonferrous Metals), and mobile site (m.smm.cn).

Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market exchanges, and relying on SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.