According to a research report by Huatai Securities, in the early hours of July 31 (Thursday) Beijing time, the US Fed maintained its stance as expected, keeping the benchmark interest rate range at 4.25%-4.5%, with two Fed governors voting against the decision. The resolution statement was adjusted to be more dovish, but Powell's remarks failed to provide guidance on a September interest rate cut, with his speech leaning hawkish. On the fundamental side, Powell emphasized that the job market remained solid, though he acknowledged downside risks. Regarding interest rate guidance, Powell did not provide clear guidance on a September interest rate cut, emphasizing that the decision to cut interest rates would depend on subsequent data. Looking ahead, whether the US Fed can cut interest rates in September mainly depends on economic data from July to August. The view that the US Fed may still cut interest rates twice from September to December remains. However, if employment and inflation data are stronger than expected, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts this year may further retreat. Attention should be paid to the upcoming release of new non-farm payrolls data on Friday (August 1).