[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices fluctuated rangebound on July 30, as the extension of China-U.S. tariffs eased trade tensions

SMM Nickel Market Update on July 30:

Macro News:

(1) From July 28 to 29 local time, Chinese Vice Premier and chief trade negotiator He Lifeng held economic and trade talks with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Trade Representative Katherine Tai in Stockholm, Sweden. Based on the consensus reached, both sides agreed to extend the suspended 24% reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US and China's countermeasures for another 90 days as scheduled.

(2) Donald Trump stated that if Russia fails to make progress in ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US would impose tariffs and take other measures within 10 days. He expressed no concern about the impact of sanctions on Russia's oil market, noting the US could increase oil production.

Spot Market:

Today, SMM #1 refined nickel prices ranged between 121,800-124,300 yuan/mt, with an average price of 123,050 yuan/mt, up 600 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel were quoted at 2,000-2,200 yuan/mt, averaging 2,100 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt day-on-day. The premiums/discounts for spot electrodeposited nickel from domestic major brands fluctuated between -200-300 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel 2509 contract remained in the doldrums during the day. By midday, SHFE nickel was quoted at 121,850 yuan/mt, down 0.04%.

The tariff extension between China and the US eased trade tensions, but the US set a new 10-day ceasefire deadline (originally 50 days) for Russia, threatening to impose 100% tariffs otherwise, keeping geopolitical and tariff risks alive. Meanwhile, with the US Fed's July policy meeting approaching, market expectations for a September interest rate cut dropped to 58% (previously 65%). Nickel prices continue to fluctuate amid policy expectations, maintaining a short-term fluctuating trend, with the projected price range at 120,000-125,000 yuan/mt.