BC Copper 2509 closed lower amid volatile trading, with the price spread continuing to invert under tariff disruptions [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

Published: Jul 29, 2025 19:33

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2509 contract opened at 70,250 yuan/mt and closed in the red. During the night session, the most-traded BC copper 2509 contract initially rose, touching an intraday high of 70,390 yuan/mt. Subsequently, the center of copper prices gradually shifted downward, reaching a low of 69,660 yuan/mt. During the day session, copper prices fluctuated considerably, ultimately closing at 69,980 yuan/mt, marking a 0.26% decline. Open interest reached 3,439 lots, an increase of 347 lots from the previous trading day, with trading volume reaching 4,890 lots. From a macro perspective, Chile's move to seek exemption from copper tariffs directly dragged down US copper prices, with LME copper and SHFE copper also experiencing pressure and fluctuations. As the August 1 deadline for copper tariffs approaches, market attention is focused on whether the 50% tariff will ultimately be implemented. Related policies remain uncertain, further exacerbating price volatility. On the fundamental side, the latest supply-side data shows that LME copper inventories increased by 225 mt to 127,625 mt. On the demand side, performance has been weak due to the combined effects of off-season factors and high copper prices.

 

The most-traded SHFE copper 2509 contract closed at 78,840 yuan/mt. If we consider the most-traded BC copper 2509 contract's closing price of 69,980 yuan/mt, its after-tax price would be 79,077 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2509 contract and the BC copper contract is -237, indicating an inverted spread that has narrowed compared to the previous day.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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BC Copper 2509 closed lower amid volatile trading, with the price spread continuing to invert under tariff disruptions [SMM BC Copper Commentary] - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)