H1 2025: World primary aluminium output grows despite market headwinds, with China and emerging regions driving gains

The world primary aluminium production seems to have withstood all the recent hurdles like escalating trade tensions, raw material costs, and supply chain disruptions with a decent growth rate of 1.4 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025. Albeit a slower than in 2024, the growth in the world’s primary aluminium production in Q2 2025 was largely encouraged by the bullish aluminium price trend on the London Metal Exchange, ranging between USD 2,499 per tonne and USD 2,593 per tonne. However, the increased LME alumina (Platts) price reaching above USD 363 per tonne dampened the mood of primary aluminium producers slightly, offsetting the output volume.

Nonetheless, the world primary aluminium production closed the H1 with a Y-o-Y hike, amounting to 36.459 million tonnes versus 35.960 million tonnes in H1 2024. According to the data revealed by the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), the surge in Q2 production propelled the overall growth in H1, standing at 18.344 million tonnes. Compared to 18.115 million tonnes in Q1, the output in Q2 stood 1.26 per cent higher. Even on an annual basis, the production volume in Q2 recorded an increase of 1.6 per cent from USD 18.053 million tonnes.

June decline - a seasonal retreat or a warning sign?

On a monthly scale, June 2025 with 30 calendar days, saw a 3.3 per cent drop in global primary aluminium production, sliding from 6.251 million tonnes to 6.045 million tonnes. The decline in monthly production did touch upon across all the major primary aluminium producing regions, right from Africa to China. But not surprising because the primary aluminium production fall in June is an annual ritual due to operational slowdowns and seasonal adjustments. Even in June 2024, the global primary aluminium production dropped 2.4 per cent M-o-M, from 3.652 million tonnes to 3.566 million tonnes.

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