[SMM Analysis:Copper Consumption in New Energy Vehicles H1 2025] On July 16, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) released data showing:January-June 2025 NEV production reached 6.968 million units, representing a 41.4% year-on-year increase.According to SMM estimates, full-year 2025 NEV production is forecast at 16.29 million units, with second-half production expected to reach 9.32 million units.

 On the macro front, the US dollar has rebounded continuously, supported by strong US economic indicators such as June's non-farm payrolls and manufacturing data.

According to SMM data, the operating rate of enamelled wire industry machinery this week rebounded by 0.13 percentage points MoM to ...

[SMM spot copper] Looking ahead to next week, copper prices ranging from 78,000 to 78,500 yuan/mt are unlikely to attract significant downstream purchases, and spot premiums are expected to remain low. However, it should be noted that the recent significant fluctuations in bill space may affect the circulation of spot cargo, and attention should be paid to the reluctance to budge on prices among suppliers.

Today, in North China, spot #1 copper cathode was trading at a discount of 150 yuan/mt to 90 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average discount of 120 yuan/mt, a decrease of 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The transaction price ranged from 77,960 yuan/mt to 78,110 yuan/mt, with an average price of 78,035 yuan/mt, a decrease of 240 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Futures market: LME copper opened at $9,626/mt overnight, initially climbed to a high of $9,665/mt, then fluctuated downward to hit a low of $9,580.5/mt during the session, and maintained rangebound fluctuations before finally closing at $9,607/mt, down 1.26%, with trading volume reaching 47,000 lots and open interest at 271,000 lots.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,626/mt, reaching a high of $9,665/mt in the early session before fluctuating downward to a low of $9,580.5/mt during the session. It maintained a rangebound fluctuation towards the end of the session, closing at $9,607/mt, down 1.26%. Trading volume reached 47,000 lots, and open interest reached 271,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2509 contract opened at 78,180 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 78,270 yuan/mt in the early session before maintaining a rangebound fluctuation throughout the session, touching a low of 77,960 yuan/mt towards the end. It ultimately closed at 78,010 yuan/mt, down 0.55%. Trading volume reached 24,000 lots, and open interest reached 173,000 lots.