SMM July 28: In recent years, domestic lead smelting capacity has increased year by year, with prominent raw material supply contradictions. The lead concentrates market has entered a "negative TC" era, leaving smelters struggling near the breakeven line for an extended period. How to track the dynamics of lead supply? Meanwhile, the corresponding lead consumer market also faces various "rat race" competitions. The largest consumption segment—the lead-acid battery market—suffers from overcapacity, compounded by substitution pressures from new-type batteries like lithium batteries. How does real-time lead consumption perform?
Based on long-term tracking and research of the lead market, SMM's lead research team has launched the industry's first "#1 Lead Ingot Spot Trading Sentiment Index" within the SMM lead database. Updated daily at 12:00 on trading days, it provides quantifiable, traceable, and early-warning sentiment references for upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry chain.
I. What Is the Index?
The #1 Lead Ingot Spot Trading Sentiment Index (Sentiment Index for Spot Trading of #1 Lead Ingots) consists of two components: the "#1 Lead Ingot Sales Sentiment Factor" and the "#1 Lead Ingot Procurement Sentiment Factor." It quantifies daily spot market trading sentiment for #1 lead on a 1–5 scale:
5 Panic buying, spot cargo snapped up instantly
4 Active inquiries, heavy restocking across all segments
3 Active inquiries, rigid demand + limited restocking
2 Few inquiries, occasional rigid demand
1 No interest
II. How Is the Data Collected?
• SMM's lead research team conducts one-on-one exchanges with key market participants, including #1 lead ingot producers, lead-acid battery manufacturers, and traders.
• Scores are assigned item by item based on sales/procurement intentions.
• Weighted by enterprise capacity, average monthly production/procurement volume/trading volume.
Calculation formula = Weighted index / Actual weight
(Actual weight is derived from the base weight of enterprises, further adjusted by procurement/sales weight * industry weight. The weighted index is obtained by multiplying the daily procurement/sales sentiment by the actual weight.)
III. How to Apply?
**Upstream enterprises:** Monitor procurement sentiment to gauge downstream demand changes, adjust sales strategies in real-time based on factory production and inventory-to-sales ratio.
**Traders:** Gain insights into upstream/downstream procurement/sales sentiment, anticipate trading strategies by combining inventory status, and accelerate capital turnover.
**Downstream enterprises:** Adjust procurement pace based on upstream sales sentiment, plan ahead for low-price inventory buildup aligned with factory production schedules, and reduce procurement costs.
**Financial institutions:** Use the quantified sentiment index to understand market transactions, explore correlations between spot trading sentiment and futures prices, and support investment strategy formulation.
IV. How to Access?
Log in to the SMM official website and click "Database," or open the SMM data terminal. Navigate to Lead > Refined Lead > Index > #1 Lead Ingot Spot Trading Sentiment Index. Updates are pushed daily at 12:00 on trading days.
