[SMM HRC Daily Review] Futures fell sharply, market sentiment weakened, and spot transactions were poor

Published: Jul 28, 2025 17:19

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Today, HRC prices fluctuated downward, with a full-day decline of 2.3%. The most-traded contract eventually closed at 3,397. Mainstream spot market prices fell by 40-80 yuan/mt, with a moderately to slightly poor trading atmosphere throughout the day and overall poor trading volume. From a fundamental perspective, HRC production dropped back slightly, inventory increased, apparent demand pulled back, and the data performance was average, with contradictions continuing to accumulate. On the cost side, following the implementation of the third round of coke price increases, a fourth round of price increases was proposed today. Meanwhile, purchase willingness at steel mills was moderate, and ore prices were supported moderately. However, it is necessary to consider the impact of the futures market pullback on price weakening. In terms of exports, according to SMM shipping data, overall port departures decreased significantly MoM last week, with a decline of 30%. Additionally, according to the SMM survey, foreign trade order-taking was also relatively average during the week. HRC prices rose too rapidly along with domestic trade, causing overseas customers to adopt a wait-and-see attitude and exercise caution in purchasing. Looking ahead, it is necessary to be vigilant about the risk of a futures market pullback after market sentiment dissipates. It is expected that HRC prices will mainly operate in the doldrums.

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