Polysilicon production schedule is expected to continue increasing in August, with limited MoM fluctuations in module scheduled production [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM reported on July 28:

Silicon metal

prices

Last week, spot and futures prices of silicon metal continued to hold up well. As of last Friday, the price of oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China ranged from 10,000 to 10,200 yuan/mt, while #441 silicon was priced between 10,200 and 10,400 yuan/mt. Over the past month, spot silicon metal prices have surged by nearly 2,000 yuan/mt, leading to improved profits for silicon enterprises in production. Both supply and demand for silicon metal have increased, with attention focused on the incremental production resumptions on the supply side.

Production

On the supply side, the operating rate in the north remained basically stable, while that in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces showed a slight upward trend. Overall, the weekly production of silicon metal increased slightly on a WoW basis.

Inventory

Social inventory: According to SMM statistics, the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 535,000 mt as of July 24, a decrease of 12,000 mt WoW. Among this, 120,000 mt was held in general social warehouses, unchanged WoW, while 415,000 mt (including unregistered warrants and spot cargo) was held in social delivery warehouses, a decrease of 12,000 mt WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)

Polysilicon

Prices

At the weekend, the quotation range for N-type recharging polysilicon was 44-49 yuan/kg, with the N-type polysilicon price index at 44.7 yuan/kg. Granular polysilicon was quoted at 43-46 yuan/kg. Polysilicon quotations remained stable over the weekend, with a small volume of transactions in the market. Polysilicon manufacturers' quotation ranges were relatively wide, with many offering prices above 50 yuan/kg to futures and spot traders. However, overall, the price transmission of module prices was relatively weak, which may exert some pressure on future prices.

Production

Polysilicon production in July is expected to reach around 110,000 mt. Currently, quotation ranges for multiple bases show mixed performance. It is anticipated that the total subsequent polysilicon production will likely increase. With the ramp-up of production at large-capacity bases, polysilicon production may see a significant increase in August.

Inventory

Currently, polysilicon inventory remains under significant pressure. Shipments in the market have gradually decreased in recent times, with inventory fluctuating within a narrow range.

Module

Prices

Recently, manufacturers have successively increased their module quotations, primarily driven by the rise in upstream raw material prices. Currently, distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.688 yuan/w, 0.718 yuan/w, and 0.688 yuan/w, respectively. Centralized Topcon 182/183 and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.659 yuan/w and 0.674 yuan/w, respectively.

Production

Module production in July increased by approximately 2% MoM. In August, orders for some module manufacturers have diverged, with relatively abundant orders for large-sized modules. The expected production schedule for August is expected to show little change MoM.

Inventory

The domestic distributed market has relatively weakened, while the overseas European market has provided some support. The market as a whole is in an inventory buildup cycle.

High-purity quartz sand

price

Currently, the domestic price for inner-layer sand is 59,000-64,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand is 27,000-33,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand is 17,000-22,000 yuan/mt. Recently, the price of domestically produced high-purity quartz sand has stopped falling and stabilized. The spot order prices of imported sand from traders have also temporarily stabilized. Sand enterprises' willingness to sell at reduced prices has weakened, and it is expected that prices will continue to fluctuate rangebound in the near term.

Production

Recently, domestic sand enterprises have seen both increases and decreases in their operations, and the supply of domestically produced sand in the market remains relatively sufficient.

Inventory

Sand enterprises' inventory has temporarily stabilized, and some crucible enterprises made small-scale purchases last week.

PV glass

Price

3.2mm single-layer coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass is 17-18 yuan/m², and the price has temporarily stabilized.

3.2mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass is 18-19 yuan/m², and the price has temporarily stabilized.

2.0mm single-layer coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass is 10-10.5 yuan/m². Recently, glass prices have temporarily remained stable. Module enterprises are still stocking up on purchases at this time, and as the pricing period approaches at the beginning of August, some top-tier enterprises still have plans to stock up.

2.0mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass is 11-11.5 yuan/m², and the price has temporarily stabilized.

Production

Recently, domestic supply has once again declined, and the daily melting capacity of PV glass furnaces in operation in the industry has dropped to less than 88,000 mt/day.

Inventory

Glass inventory continues to decline, with some second-tier glass enterprises having less than 30 days of inventories. Top-tier enterprises are approaching 30 days of inventories. It is expected that the industry's days of glass inventories will decline to within 30 days before August.