At a time when the price elasticity of lithium hydroxide is expanding and the demand rhythm for medium- and high-nickel cathodes is fluctuating, inventory is no longer just a "static number" but a leading indicator for predicting the next market rally or correction. SMM's New Energy Lithium Battery Database has launched a brand-new Lithium Hydroxide Inventory Cycle Index (Monthly Edition). Based on the "monthly apparent consumption of lithium hydroxide," it standardizes the inventory levels of upstream, downstream, and intermediate sectors, helping the industry chain to quickly grasp the inventory situation and lock in procurement, production, and arbitrage opportunities in advance.
I. Index Compilation: Understanding Inventory Levels
- Upstream Inventory Cycle Index = Month-end inventory of lithium hydroxide at lithium chemical plants ÷ Monthly apparent consumption of lithium hydroxide
- Downstream Inventory Cycle Index = Month-end inventory of lithium hydroxide at high-nickel cathode plants ÷ Monthly apparent consumption of lithium hydroxide
All data have been cross-validated through SMM's monthly sample enterprise surveys and production models. The index levels indicate inventory risks and restocking signals.
II. Application Scenarios: Making Inventory Cycles a Decision-Making Metronome
- Lithium Chemical Enterprises: When the downstream index is low, lock in volumes and prices in advance to prevent supply shortages during peak seasons; when the index is high, actively reduce production or switch to lithium carbonate production.
- High-Nickel Cathode/Battery Plants: When the upstream index is high, drive down prices and delay procurement; when the index is low, decisively stockpile to reduce the risk of rushing to buy amid continuous price rises.
- Investment Institutions: Backtest the index turning points with the lithium carbonate-lithium hydroxide price spread and battery-grade lithium hydroxide changes to construct an "inventory-price spread" model and capture investment opportunities.
III. Release Schedule On the next business day after the monthly production of lithium hydroxide is disclosed, SMM's New Energy Lithium Battery Database will promptly release the latest index, along with historical sequences and visualized charts, to help you lock in the "golden turning point" of the inventory cycle in the high-nickel cathode chain at the earliest opportunity.
