SMM Sentiment Index for Spot Copper Cathode Purchasing and Sales

Spot copper cathode procurement and sales are concentrated in south China and east China. To better serve the national spot copper cathode market, SMM also provides spot price quotes for regions such as southwest China and north China. Due to regional differences in spot procurement and sales, fluctuating trends in spot premiums/discounts, and unpredictable regional procurement and sales sentiment, SMM's copper research team has developed a spot copper cathode procurement and sales sentiment index for seven regions based on accumulated data and internal models. Updated at 12:00 every business day, this index provides quantifiable, traceable, and early-warning sentiment references for industry chain enterprises.

I. Data Highlights

1. Divergence Between Purchase and Sales Sentiment for Better Assessment of Procurement and Sales Difficulty
Spot copper cathode sales sentiment index: Smelters' and traders' willingness to sell
Spot copper cathode procurement sentiment index: Downstream and traders' purchase willingness

2. Professional Scoring with Weighted Factors
The analyst team conducts daily targeted communication with enterprises, scoring their selling/purchasing intentions on a scale of 1–5 (1 = minimal inquiries, occasional rigid demand; 5 = panic buying, spot cargo sold out instantly). Scores are weighted by enterprise capacity/procurement volume to ensure factors represent mainstream industry trends.

3. Precise Calculation to Analyze Spot Market Trends
SMM's copper research team calculates procurement and sales sentiment through precise computation, providing the market with quantifiable indicators to review and predict spot market movements.

II. Application Scenarios

Smelters: Assess market supply tightness based on sales sentiment and coordinate multi-region shipments; determine premiums/discounts pricing and supply allocation based on procurement sentiment.

Traders: Evaluate inventory levels (e.g., restock or destock) by analyzing purchase and sales sentiment.

Downstream: Determine procurement difficulty and premiums/discounts price trends based on procurement and sales sentiment.

Recently, sales sentiment in Shanghai significantly outpaced procurement sentiment. This week, the price spread for branded premiums/discounts in Shanghai widened excessively, with brands eligible for long-term contract trades flocking to the region. Suppliers exhibited strong willingness to sell, driven by expectations of high premiums. However, rising sales sentiment suppressed spot premiums, as indicated by the high sales sentiment index over the past two days. Against weak procurement sentiment, spot premiums declined today. Thus, the procurement/sales sentiment index provides directional guidance for future premium forecasts.